January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ji]

Baja low a bit more east and open

[Ji]

Angle looks better

[Ji]

Big ice for Mitch west

[Ji]

Snow breaks out around 9pm Saturday. Still faster than euro

[Ji]

500mb looks improved too in terms of phasing

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

500mb looks improved too in terms of phasing

It looks like it wants to come north. Juiced up

[Ji]

Everything looks more backed up west

[Ji]

Over a foot

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Big ice for Mitch west

Ice?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1040mb High in NY state when the precip starts. Here's the potential we're looking at.. it counts sleet as snow depth, but a shift north would look like this

[SLPressure]

TT maps look like 8-10 for dc.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, SLPressure said:

TT maps look like 8-10 for dc.

Kuchera is 16.5 for dc, you would think we could actually get some decent ratios here on the northern side of this. 

[Ji]

Kutchera I’d like 12-17 lol

[Silver Meteor]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

6z NAM at 84hrs phasing much better than the 0z GFS

Exciting

1055mb High? Seriously? 

[Ji]

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS

[CAPE]

2 ft in southern VA including the Northern neck lol

[Weather Will]

Nice bump North on GFS!  Nice to see it still on board!

[osfan24]

Nice. I love where we sit right now with heaviest totals in South Central VA. We all know that will end up this way.

[Ji]

2 ft in southern VA including the Northern neck lol

This storm is going to cause insane hardship for those they don’t get snow

[Ji]

[Ji]

5 inches of sleet for Carolinas

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Safe to say the High pressure to the north is overdone, and the storm will shift a little north even if it means a little less phasing? I guess I'm asking what is the difference in outcome if the High pressure is 1035mb vs 1040mb? 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Safe to say the High pressure to the north is overdone, and the storm will shift a little north even if it means a little less phasing? I guess I'm asking what is the difference in outcome if the High pressure is 1035mb vs 1040mb? 

I would think the mix line moves north from NC to somewhere across south/central VA into lower delmarva, and the snowfall amounts north of that stay the same or a bit less. Just an educated guess

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would think the mix line moves north from NC to somewhere across south/central VA into lower delmarva, and the snowfall amounts north of that stay the same or a bit less. Just an educated guess

All systems go. This agreement is something we haven’t seen in a very long time. A few more days of wobble watching.

[Weather Will]

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

[Silver Meteor]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Whew, that's a relief! Remember earlier estimates for ZR south of Virginia were horrific. 

[Solution Man]

24 hours of white smoke 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS ticked north compared to 0Z.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

Actually GFS AI is very similar to op GFS at both 500mb and sfc low positions. It's the precip shield that's a bit different, but I don't trust AI models on precip. I trust them more on 500mb and storm tracks