January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Ji]

Ji hijacked his account.
ICON looks pretty decent so far.  Def some interaction going on and seems like the baja energy is further east

I need to be a better poster if I’m being described as the new mitchnick

[TSSN+]

Steps in the right direction and another away from op gfs. Let’s go 

[bncho]

It gets like 8" into DC

[stormtracker]

It makes it up to us, with heaviest over C VA and NC....

[clskinsfan]

You could see the changes early on at 500. North Carolinians dont like that run though.

[SnowenOutThere]

Icon has a still sorta out there evolution where the NS fails to really pull the storm east unlike all other guidance (minus GFS) but wonder if that leaves a round two on the table for the next NS wave to pull into

[Benjamn3]

Smacked the shit out of VA. 

 

 

I love it. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Storm (or round one?) total

[stormtracker]

It's a pretty good hit all in all and in line with my 6-10 im looking for.  Ratios baby

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

It's almost an entire cave...

Big step in the right direction!

[soadforecasterx]

00z rgem ejects SW follows suit with 00z trend 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

It's almost an entire cave...

I KEEP GETTING NINJA'D BY THIS SNOWENOUTTHERE KID OMFG HOW IS HE SO DAMN FAST

Two monitor setup and the blatant disregard of HW for a 10am class I just switched into. 

[Nomz]

12z (right) vs 00z (left) weenie maps

[Solution Man]

Trend is very positive, love it

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

12z (right) vs 00z (left) weenie maps

Looks Euroish

[SnowenOutThere]

Now we just need the GFS to cave and I will feel so much better about saying with near certainty the East coast will get a major snowstorm somewhere. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

00z rgem ejects SW follows suit with 00z trend 

Yup, RGEM ain't look too bad either

[Terpeast]

It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup, RGEM ain't look too bad either

Kinda looks like it would lead to a big run. Guess will find out when cmc comes out. 

[clskinsfan]

I mean it's the ICON. But there is no denying the improvement that run. Easy way for us to score to. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha

I think we see at least a partial cave back towards its 12z run with ejecting at least some of the SW energy. Hopefully more though. 

[HighStakes]

Only 84 hours until Watches are issued.

[bncho]

I'm like 90% sure that the RGEM 10km is a higher res version of the CMC—exact same output otherwise

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Now we just need the GFS to cave and I will feel so much better about saying with near certainty the East coast will get a major snowstorm somewhere. 

Like I said, it’s rarely that easy. I still think there will be a reshuffling when upper air obs get better sampled as the sw enters the conus

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha

The ICON was a positive step in the handling of 5H with even some room for more improvement for the sub-forum. 
 

The GFS will get on board by Saturday afternoon 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

It’s the ICON but i’ll take it. Can’t complain about its trend (more like a big shift). Let’s see what CMC and GFS does next. I think the latter will remain stubborn haha

GFS almost guaranteed not to do right

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Like I said, it’s rarely that easy. I still think there will be a reshuffling when upper air obs get better sampled as the sw enters the conus

I'm just focused on getting that SW to come east. Though I suppose there's still a lot of time even if we get everything on board at 0z tonight. Do you know when it will be sampled better?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS almost guaranteed not to do right

Can’t see how this run is not an improvement 

[Ji]

GFS almost guaranteed not to do right

Gfs is the one model that could literally shift 500 miles on one run





Except when it helps us.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I'm just focused on getting that SW to come east. Though I suppose there's still a lot of time even if we get everything on board at 0z tonight. Do you know when it will be sampled better?

I’m thinking Thursday if california field offices launch their balloons on time as per usual or maybe earlier if noaa sends some flights off the CA coast