January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

End of the NAM. At least it's more sleet than freezing rain.

[olafminesaw]

The ICON looks like a step in the right direction through 72, with more spacing

[PackGrad05]

If it's going to be ice, we can only hope QPF drops off as well.  Anything to prevent major accrual.

[Tacoma]

hoping the models come back south with the snow for nc and upstate

[BooneWX]

Icon starting positively as well…..

[Buddy1987]

Maybe this is the stage they start recognizing the density of the cold air and adjust accordingly for this? I like how the orientation/axis of the precip on the ICON also agrees with NAM and really GFS as well if we're going to be bringing it into the equation, in anticipation of 18z.

[NorthHillsWx]

Icon ticking south, more separation between NS and Baja. Even stronger CAD signature. Good trends. 

[wncsnow]

ICON did not end well. Our only real hope for snow in my opinion is to juice up the first wave before the baja low comes out and suppress it enough to not miss NW>

[Buddy1987]

ICON was GROSS by the end of it. But then again it's the ICON so I don't weigh it too much. 

[olafminesaw]

This sounding is bonkers, 11 degrees at the surface and 40 degrees 5000 ft up

[BooneWX]

My gut says north of I-85 and west of the triangle is a sleet fest of epic proportions and that’ll start showing itself in short range guidance tomorrow and Friday. 

[stormwatcherJ]

No snow for that area?

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

My gut says north of I-85 and west of the triangle is a sleet fest of epic proportions and that’ll start showing itself in short range guidance tomorrow and Friday. 

 

[Buddy1987]

For what it's worth 18Z RGEM has a mega sleet bomb for majority of the Carolinas. Trying hard to come down with authority for snow north of 460. Beautiful 1043MB high parked up north of the NY/Canada border.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

My gut says north of I-85 and west of the triangle is a sleet fest of epic proportions and that’ll start showing itself in short range guidance tomorrow and Friday. 

I agree, although I could definitely see a massive dry slot cutting into QPF way more than models are showing. At this point 4-6" of sleet or bust in my mind. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

For what it's worth 18Z RGEM has a mega sleet bomb for majority of the Carolinas. Trying hard to come down with authority for snow north of 460. Beautiful 1043MB high parked up north of the NY/Canada border.

Does it have any sleet into Georgia? 

[Stebaney]

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Does it have any sleet into Georgia? 

I don't have soundings but surface verbatim has freezing rain down to around Columbia SC and then on over into NE GA.

[suzook]

13 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

ICON was GROSS by the end of it. But then again it's the ICON so I don't weigh it too much. 

Everyone was rooting for the icon at the beginning. When the end result sucked, we then resort to "Well its the ICON"

[Buddy1987]

Just now, suzook said:

Everyone was rooting for the icon at the beginning. When the end result sucked, we then resort to "Well its the ICON"

Or it's because NCEP or NWS doesn't even weigh it in their forecast discussions.

[SnowDawg]

I don't even care about snow anymore. I am the biggest sleet fan ever right now lol

[RaleighNC]

1 hour ago, IceQueen706 said:

We're probably in 4/5 range here in Clayton and Tiger?

1998 North American Ice Storm. Here's what it did to transmission lines in Quebec. These are the big boys.  The cost and time for repairing that is in the billions and in months.

 

[RaleighNC]

From Wikipedia

The North American Ice Storm of 1998 (also known as the Great Ice Storm of 1998 or the January Ice Storm) was a massive combination of five smaller successive ice storms in January 1998 that struck a relatively narrow swath of land from eastern Ontario to southern Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Canada, and bordering areas from northern New York to central Maine in the United States. It caused massive damage to trees and electrical infrastructure throughout the area, leading to widespread long-term power outages. Millions were left in the dark for periods varying from days to several weeks, and in some instances, months. It led to 34 fatalities, a shutdown of activities in large cities like Montreal and Ottawa, and an unprecedented effort in reconstruction of the power grid. The ice storm led to the largest deployment of Canadian military personnel since the Korean War, with over 16,000 Canadian Forces personnel deployed, 12,000 in Quebec and 4,000 in Ontario at the height of the crisis.^[3][4]: 16

[stormwatcherJ]

Question for the experts: how would the precip starting earlier than expected change the overall scenario for central NC if at all?

[BornAgain13]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Love this except im curious of what ur thinking with the 6" zone. Most guidance has shifted the 6" snow well into Virginia. 

[RaleighNC]

All that said, 100mm is just under 4 inches, and I don't see that happening in this storm anywhere. Nevertheless, the ice forecast is significant and energy grid damage will occur.

[Buddy1987]

Not sure I love the ridge out west at 54 to start here.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Not sure I love the ridge out west at 54 to start here.

Seems a bit north so far but the ridge is stronger to the East so that may help suppress as the system moves East

[BMulkey]

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

I think this is a great call with the information we have so far. Thanks for sharing!

[Brick Tamland]

[wncsnow]

GFS continues its slow move north each run