January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

There is a path out of this if the main moisture feed misses us to the north and west. This has happened plenty of times with rainstorms 

[BornAgain13]

Paging @Disc... would love to know why yall are bullish about snow amounts especially south of 460?

[NCSUGrad]

RAH in their briefing mentioned the model was starting to reflect some warming. If you look at the Sunday 7 PM for the last several runs, Raleigh's modeled temp goes from 24 to 30. If that trend continues, you'd have to think ice amounts would have to be reduced. 

 

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, NCSUGrad said:

RAH in their briefing mentioned the model was starting to reflect some warming. If you look at the Sunday 7 PM for the last several runs, Raleigh's modeled temp goes from 24 to 30. If that trend continues, you'd have to think ice amounts would have to be reduced. 

 

That trend has been there since last night.  The EURO began showing temperatures getting to freezing or just above freezing sunday night in Wake County.   But the temperature drops below freezing again as night progresses and monday morning approaches.

[Silver Meteor]

6 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

 

The beast has arrived. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=wus&band=09&length=24

Where does this physically reside in the atmosphere? How many thousands of feet up, or what general millibar area?

[NCSUGrad]

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

That trend has been there since last night.  The EURO began showing temperatures getting to freezing or just above freezing sunday night in Wake County.   But the temperature drops below freezing again as night progresses and monday morning approaches.

Isn't there 5 more hours of precip after 7 PM Sunday? Wouldn't that then just be rain and not freezing rain? 

[Thrasher Fan]

0z GFS on the clock.

[NorthHillsWx]

5 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

RAH in their briefing mentioned the model was starting to reflect some warming. If you look at the Sunday 7 PM for the last several runs, Raleigh's modeled temp goes from 24 to 30. If that trend continues, you'd have to think ice amounts would have to be reduced. 

 

Yes, whatever ticks people are seeing on here it keeps getting warmer at surface on most modeling

[kvegas-wx]

This a bodyshop special.  We get nothing but black ice and everyone wrecks their cars.  Congrats Montreal and Niagara Falls.  Unbelievable.

[NCSUGrad]

Same question, but 1 AM Monday. 

Trend appears to be consistent. Two more days of the models "warming" and I don't see how we end up with the same ice that is currently being forecasted.

 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

WRAL all in with ice storm at roughly 0.6” accrued . There wasn’t any mention of sleet that I heard. Am I missing something here? They are going strictly in-house and European from what I can tell. One would think that they could at least mention that sleet could partially save the day for much of central NC as depicted by NAM and GFS. Maybe they are right but it seems a bit early to be certain.


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[NorthHillsWx]

I will say this, ICON and NAM ticked pretty far north with main moisture feed. If that shows up on other modeling the severity of this goes way way down. Freezing drizzle sucks but it doesn’t get you to damaging ice

[PackGrad05]

2 minutes ago, NCSUGrad said:

Isn't there 5 more hours of precip after 7 PM Sunday? Wouldn't that then just be rain and not freezing rain? 

Depends on if surface temps stay above freezing or dip down below.  

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, NCSUGrad said:

Same question, but 1 AM Monday. 

Trend appears to be consistent. Two more days of "warming" and I don't see how we end up with the same ice that is currently being forecasted.

 

 

If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

I will say this, ICON and NAM ticked pretty far north with main moisture feed. If that shows up on other modeling the severity of this goes way way down. Freezing drizzle sucks but it doesn’t get you to damaging ice

Exactly . I just don’t see it.


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[palmettoweather]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel

Agreed. Watching the early returns from 0z suite, there isn’t the support for the massive ice totals being forecasted, from both QPF and temperature perspective. It’s early, but out to 45, GFS seems to be moving towards 0z NAM.

[PackGrad05]

00Z GFS looks similar to previous.

[wncsnow]

GFS has snow again 

[ADB83]

GFS still trying to start with snow for northern part of NC 

[PackGrad05]

GFS has been the most consistent by far.  So it is either right or way wrong.  
Brad P even mentioned his concerns with EURO output.

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS is a few ticks warmer at surface too 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS is a few ticks warmer at surface too 

Looks slightly colder at 850 with first wave to me 

[NCSUGrad]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel

Good point on the QPF trend. Lost 0.5in in Raleigh over the last 9 runs. 

[USCG RS]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If LP really rides up to Ohio I don’t care how strong the wedge is anyone not in the most CAD climo spots will get above freezing. This didn’t seem possible 12 hours ago. I’m not calling for bust yet but unless the trend stops we’re 1) going to be much warmer and 2) much less QPF. There might be light at the end of the tunnel

100%

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS appears to have ticked north, not insignificantly 

[StantonParkHoya]

GFS with a hard rain at the end to wash it all away. Much warmer.


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[PackGrad05]

the GFS still shows over 12 hours of precipitation in central NC with temps below freezing.  That's a mess.

[NorthHillsWx]

All of the upstate to part of the triangle is above freezing for the last wave of precip. Wow, this might be a forecast whiff

[wncsnow]

I guess denial comes before acceptance 

[calculus1]

The QPF on the 00Z GFS looks even more than its most recent runs. 2.5 inches in Hickory?! Wow!