January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[JoshM]

If this keeps trending up some of you might need this information.

 

 

[JoshM]

Kuchera still isn't too shabby

[HWY316wx]

1 hour ago, Thrasher Fan said:

I have no words.

 

Ditto.  The EURO is going to be a DRUNK RAGER of an ice storm.  I think you boys up in NC are going to score a pile of snow.  Upstate SC, your power is not on and neither is mine Saturday afternoon.  I will be asleep to the hum of the generator Sunday morning.

[andyhb]

Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.

[JoshM]

Just now, andyhb said:

Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.

Seeing this much agreement among the suites is scary. Something historic is going to happen (not in a good way!)

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.

I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA.  They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.

[andyhb]

1.5+" of ice for much of the Atlanta metro/N GA thanks to an extremely strong CAD wedge. This is a nightmare.

[JoshM]

This is a 30+ hour event on the euro as well. 

[HWY316wx]

For GA folks, this starts on the EURO about 7AM Saturday morning and doesn't stop freezing rain / sleet until Sunday at midnight.  Dare I say this will be the ice storm of the century as modeled?  That just seems insane to type.  I hope it's a raging sleet storm otherwise, we are in deep poo.

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA.  They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.

That is absolutely not sleet via the 00z Euro in the Atlanta metro during the peak of the event.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, andyhb said:

That is absolutely not sleet via the 00z Euro in the Atlanta metro during the peak of the event.

Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48.  2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did

[chris624wx]

4 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

For GA folks, this starts on the EURO about 7AM Saturday morning and doesn't stop freezing rain / sleet until Sunday at midnight.  Dare I say this will be the ice storm of the century as modeled?  That just seems insane to type.  I hope it's a raging sleet storm otherwise, we are in deep poo.

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

[HWY316wx]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

Yep.  We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big.  I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point.  I don't want any part of that mess.

 

[JoshM]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

Dec. 2002 was like that here. We got the parfait... Snow, then sleet, then the 0.75" of ZR. 

[chris624wx]

3 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Yep.  We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big.  I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point.  I don't want any part of that mess.

 

Yeah, hoping for sleet for y'all if it isn't going to be snow! 

[SnowDawg]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48.  2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did

Yep depth of the cold is the key here. There will no doubt be a warm nose, but experience says the heart of the wedge will almost always verify with more SN/IP. Alluding to that, one thing that stuck out to me on that Euro was the wedge signature starting to show up even at 850mbar. That is deep cold. As a result the sn/ip line held south for longer than earlier runs despite being more amped. Not to mention the potential for dynamic cooling fighting against the warm nose with such high rates possible.

[Coach McGuirk]

I want to believe.  

[Coach McGuirk]

32 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

It has been a while.  I remember this storm.   My outdoor thermometer was like 32. 4 the entire event.  Just 2-3 miles west was a bad freezing rain storm on the tree limbs in York County, VA.

A look back at the 1998 Christmas Ice Storm that devastated Central Virginia | WRIC ABC 8News

[SnowDawg]

The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.

[Ravens94]

The AI models are all trending south the last 4 runs. This is going to be a big test for them. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.

 But that wouldn’t be as strong as the biggest worry of all for many, a potential massive highly damaging and long lasting power outage causing icestorm. If the only alternative to nonwintry is a massive icestorm, who other than cray cray wx weenies would want that? Give them mainly 33F+ rain instead, please. Hope to the big guy for their sake that much of it would be sleet, my favorite wintry precip these days!

 I may consider a trip to ATL for this weekend IFF the odds of a massive icestorm are low and instead odds of a big sleetstorm with possibly a bonus of some snow along with only a fairly limited amount of ZR are high.

[WiseWeather]

This may be the most absurd run the gfs has spit out… 15 inches… then sleet then back to snow in the foothills.


.

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.

Just look at the trend on the GFS. I feel confident sleet will cut into our totals, at least somewhat. However, with the trend towards slower/amplification/the breaking down of the HP, QPF has increased as well. I certainly wouldn't complain about 8" of snow and an inch of sleet on top

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

And the snowfall trend. Just need things to start swinging back the other way today

06z GFS moved north a bit and increased precip totals. Also inched mix line north again. 

[buckeyefan1]

Goooooooood morning weather nerds! Here’s your reminder to please keep the memes/gif’s/one liners and whatever random thoughts you have, contained to the appropriate thread. Please add discussion to your posts and maps. Not everyone will know where your backyard is and this will be a very high impact event for a lot of peeps who deserve accurate information. We are the best AMWX has to offer after all
 

Most importantly ya’ll take your meds, practice your breathing skills, use a different finger or thumb for consistent refresh rates of model runs, drink plenty of water, sleep when you can and enjoy the madness we’ve all missed for too long now

[suzook]

06z gfs obliterates the ATL with inches of ice and snow. This truly could be the worst devastating storm to hit ATL. I'm not joking. We could havepeople with no heat and water for weeks. I seriously hope this doesn't happen as depicted.

[BornAgain13]

Just insane stuff right here. GFS showing over 2 feet up this way...

[NorthHillsWx]

Even though the GFS ticked north with precip and mixing, it actually ticked colder just about everywhere at the surface. There is going to be an epic battle going on in the mid levels with this one. It actually ticked colder at 850 in Virginia 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think there’s a legit shot of sub-zero readings over many locations in piedmont areas early next week. It takes a special combination of HP, extreme Arctic cold, and deep snow/ice pack in your backyard and to your north for it to happen and all those boxes appear to be checked. I’m not buying the -10 on gfs but within a few ticks of 0 seems possible 

[NorthHillsWx]

FYI AIGFS trended somewhat significantly colder, again. It’s like it missed the bus on the blocking/CAD and is running to catch up.