January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[JoshM]

0z Euro has Majority of NC with 2"+ QPF. Copied from MA forum, I'm lazy

 

[lilj4425]

7 minutes ago, JoshM said:

from MA forum

Is that mostly sleet and ZR? I know some of these snow maps can be really goofy and show sleet and ZR as snow. 

[JoshM]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that mostly sleet and ZR? I know some of these snow maps can be really goofy and show sleet and ZR as snow. 

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Thanks. I’m definitely in the ice zone still.  

[JoshM]

If this keeps trending up some of you might need this information.

 

 

[JoshM]

Kuchera still isn't too shabby

[HWY316wx]

1 hour ago, Thrasher Fan said:

I have no words.

 

Ditto.  The EURO is going to be a DRUNK RAGER of an ice storm.  I think you boys up in NC are going to score a pile of snow.  Upstate SC, your power is not on and neither is mine Saturday afternoon.  I will be asleep to the hum of the generator Sunday morning.

[andyhb]

Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.

[JoshM]

Just now, andyhb said:

Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.

Seeing this much agreement among the suites is scary. Something historic is going to happen (not in a good way!)

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Absolutely historic, devastating ice storm on that 00z Euro run for a wide swath of the Southeast. You do not want that verifying.

I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA.  They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.

[andyhb]

1.5+" of ice for much of the Atlanta metro/N GA thanks to an extremely strong CAD wedge. This is a nightmare.

[JoshM]

This is a 30+ hour event on the euro as well. 

[HWY316wx]

For GA folks, this starts on the EURO about 7AM Saturday morning and doesn't stop freezing rain / sleet until Sunday at midnight.  Dare I say this will be the ice storm of the century as modeled?  That just seems insane to type.  I hope it's a raging sleet storm otherwise, we are in deep poo.

[andyhb]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think the areas in the wedge core like GA and SC will get mainly sleet, but those outside of it like N AL/N MS AR/TX would likely be FZRA.  They all could use a CMC or UKIE solution which spares many areas down there from a FZRA event but to me that hard early phase is not likely.

That is absolutely not sleet via the 00z Euro in the Atlanta metro during the peak of the event.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, andyhb said:

That is absolutely not sleet via the 00z Euro in the Atlanta metro during the peak of the event.

Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48.  2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did

[chris624wx]

4 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

For GA folks, this starts on the EURO about 7AM Saturday morning and doesn't stop freezing rain / sleet until Sunday at midnight.  Dare I say this will be the ice storm of the century as modeled?  That just seems insane to type.  I hope it's a raging sleet storm otherwise, we are in deep poo.

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

[HWY316wx]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

Yep.  We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big.  I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point.  I don't want any part of that mess.

 

[JoshM]

3 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

Dec. 2002 was like that here. We got the parfait... Snow, then sleet, then the 0.75" of ZR. 

[chris624wx]

3 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Yep.  We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big.  I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point.  I don't want any part of that mess.

 

Yeah, hoping for sleet for y'all if it isn't going to be snow! 

[SnowDawg]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Past events like this though it never grasps the depth of the cold layer in that area til inside 36-48.  2/2014 I was forecasting and at this range it also appeared to be FZRA, I think even until 48-72 it did

Yep depth of the cold is the key here. There will no doubt be a warm nose, but experience says the heart of the wedge will almost always verify with more SN/IP. Alluding to that, one thing that stuck out to me on that Euro was the wedge signature starting to show up even at 850mbar. That is deep cold. As a result the sn/ip line held south for longer than earlier runs despite being more amped. Not to mention the potential for dynamic cooling fighting against the warm nose with such high rates possible.

[Coach McGuirk]

I want to believe.  

[Coach McGuirk]

32 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove! 

It has been a while.  I remember this storm.   My outdoor thermometer was like 32. 4 the entire event.  Just 2-3 miles west was a bad freezing rain storm on the tree limbs in York County, VA.

A look back at the 1998 Christmas Ice Storm that devastated Central Virginia | WRIC ABC 8News

[SnowDawg]

The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.

[Ravens94]

The AI models are all trending south the last 4 runs. This is going to be a big test for them.