First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[moneypitmike]

58 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I can’t wait until we have the ability to dump this place into an AI machine and have it diagnose all of our issues. 
AIs for the win? Major coup for RRFS? Lucy just catching the snap?

Double digits at Pit2 and 1.5" at Pit1.   Winter of yore.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Getting some nice overall concensus now amongst all models. Solid event coming. 
 

[moneypitmike]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah 7a class. As I said, want to see 12z continue but obviously a pleasant way to wake up.

Morning weenie.

[moneypitmike]

39 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

12z could be the backing off or leveling out.  But it could keep trending.  Feels like it’ll keep trending but I’ve been down that road before.

Summarizing this best post of the year.....

The next run could be worse, the same, or better.

 

[moneypitmike]

17 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

31F and mostly cloudy and dry here in E CT

34* and cloudy in PVD

20* and  snow at Pit2.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Summarizing this best post of the year.....

The next run could be worse, the same, or better.

 

And I get flack….?   Mahk certainly doesn’t know what’s gonna happen at 12z with that post .  
 

[ariof]

51 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I remember reading an MIT statistician estimated that 2015 stretch was like a once in 12,000 year event. It was insane.

I mean, 12,000 years ago the ice sheets were still retreating not far into Quebec, the shoreline was further out and there were big glacial lakes to the NW so … I assume this is "given current climate conditions."

[WinterWolf]

So I went to bed at about 11:30 after the GFS.  Had enough and wasn’t gonna wait for the Euro…figured it was a done deal and a miss for us.  
 

Looked at the post count from 11:30 last night, to when I just checked back 7:30 am,  and it said 108!  I was like, something positive happened for sure, cuz you never get 100 plus posts in the late overnight like that, unless there’s some exciting news.  And sure enough…what a pleasant surprise.  WE ALL TAKE AND SAVOR the trend. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ariof said:

I mean, 12,000 years ago the ice sheets were still retreating not far into Quebec, the shoreline was further out and there were big glacial lakes to the NW so … I assume this is "given current climate conditions."

Ya, I mean I don’t know if I believe the 12 thousand year stuff….but I guess the takeaway is it(2015)was a very rare run for the area, in the middle of what was a bad season up to that point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ha...I was right afterall about Sunday....I can't believe how long it took 

[CoastalWx]

Got to see 12z for me.

[Modfan2]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Got to see 12z for me.

Like the crazy uncle from John Cusack movie, One Crazy Summer trying to win the radio contest. IYKYK 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Got to see 12z for me.

I mean if it totally regresses at 12z, 24 hrs before an event…that would be a complete and utter model failure…And these models all blow horse dongs…no two ways around that, if that indeed happened. 

[moneypitmike]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So I went to bed at about 11:30 after the GFS.  Had enough and wasn’t gonna wait for the Euro…figured it was a done deal and a miss for us.  
 

Looked at the post count from 11:30 last night, to when I just checked back 7:30 am,  and it said 108!  I was like, something positive happened for sure, cuz you never get 100 plus posts in the late overnight like that, unless there’s some exciting news.  And sure enough…what a pleasant surprise.  WE ALL TAKE AND SAVOR the trend. 

 

One can save a lot of time in their day if they simply look to see how the post/page count has changed on a storm thread.

The obs threads are always trainwrecks.  lol

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean if it totally regresses at 12z, 24 hrs before an event…that would be a complete and utter model failure…And these models all blow horse dongs…no two ways around that, if that indeed happened. 

No, I’m not saying a total reverse, but if I see things start moving east that’s gonna be disappointing. I’d like to see a continue ticking west right up to game time. I think for me I’m going to need the rates so I’d like to see some meat in this.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Got to see 12z for me.

I'll do a revised map tonight. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha...I was right afterall about Sunday....I can't believe how long it took 

Nothing coming easy for us the last 4-5 years that’s for sure.  But we seasoned now, we hardened, and we push on…we are New Englanders.  

[CoastalWx]

I’d like to have several inches of man paste hopefully with the snow. I don’t want fluff. I’m done with that and now it’s almost an angle season.
 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like this comes in tomorrow afternoon and heaviest is into the night?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing coming easy for us the last 4-5 years that’s for sure.  But we seasoned now, we hardened, and we push on…we are New Englanders.  

No offense to you and others, but you all have had a few bones thrown away the last several years. The only thing I have thrown my way was Kevin’s Weedwhacker up my fanny.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like this comes in tomorrow afternoon and heaviest is into the night?

Yeah. Some models also tried lingering it into Monday too.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

No, I’m not saying a total reverse, but if I see things start moving east that’s gonna be disappointing. I’d like to see a continue ticking west right up to game time. I think for me I’m going to need the rates so I’d like to see some meat in this.

Ahh ok. Us out here WOR need a few ticks west for sure.  Hope that happens. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. Some models also tried lingering it into Monday too.

Like a fart ? Did you have to let it linger 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll do a revised map tonight. 

I can picture it already.......seeing me in green with "mostly rain" scrawled through it.

[SouthCoastMA]

Haven't looked at 925 temps but euro prefip algo showed rain for a good chunk, here 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would not be surprised if things became less favorable for the 12z runs.  But I’m not expecting anything huge as far as changes. 
A problem that I see that others have mentioned is the alignment of the system.  Small changes can have big impacts as far as sensible wx

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like a fart ? Did you have to let it linger 

Like Ray’s fart in the gym after doing dead lifts.

[Modfan2]

No snow and sun out here, hoping storm 2 pans out

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Haven't looked at 925 temps but euro prefip algo showed rain for a good chunk, here 

I think that’s why you want the meat of  this to come over because that would help you flip. Winds do go north and that should help because it’s not really that warm just above you.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to have several inches of man paste hopefully with the snow. I don’t want fluff. I’m done with that and now it’s almost an angle season.
 

Not even close with the angle BS(not in mid Jan)…you’re good on that front. We are just entering the absolute heart of climo winter for SNE now.  Let’s bring this beotch home. And you’ll get your paste out that way.