First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[ORH_wxman]

OP euro looks like a clean whiff. Might be the furthest east now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't trust these AI's "know"  ( pun intended ) what they're doing.

Looking at their 500 mb isohypses progressions through the periods they smack to me of the primitive MRF of the mid 1980s.   It could also just be a coincidence, but I'm inclined to wonder nonetheless if that is why they are always optimistic/more so than their operational colleagues.   It's like they are learning ... but they are just in the 1980s middle school, where as the operational runs today are ... freshmen in college say.

Lot of metaphor packed into all that but you get my gist -

Our weather smacks of the mid 1980s, too.

[Supernovice]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The AI is learning on its own too..gotta take that into consideration also. Gets better every time. 

Not trying to break balls but this is a fundamental misunderstanding of ai as it pertains to weather models. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/14/2026 at 12:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

All Eyes On Sunday-Night-Monday

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend 

Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. 

Synoptic Overview

There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation.

 

 

This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior.

 

These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation.

 

This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday.

 

However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones.

 

Anticipate a First Call  on Friday.

 

Threat Assessment

 

 

...slowly backs away.....seeks out nearest hedges to immerse self.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP euro looks like a clean whiff. Might be the furthest east now. 

Jesus, this is utterly exhausting. 

[MJO812]

Euro isnt even in the same ballpark as the other models so far. It doesnt even show a storm. Very weak and way OTS.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro isnt even in the same ballpark as the other models so far. It doesnt even show a storm. Very weak and way OTS.

euro is out to lunch 

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...slowly backs away.....seeks out nearest hedges to immerse self.

Finds nearest garden tool to insert…

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro is out to lunch 

Keep this on ice for the off-chance it shows a big hit for us later this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Finds nearest garden tool to insert…

John Deer riiiight up the rear

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, this is utterly exhausting. 

Watch 00z trend hard back west again. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Watch 00z trend hard back west again. 

atleast northern Florida gets snow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Watch 00z trend hard back west again. 

Which will make it even more exhausting. Like, just insert the weedwhacker into my netherland and let it rip....Christ, we need to let it idle for a few more runs until any residual trace amount of mother natures lube is adequately extinguished.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd still give it through tomorrow, but this is brutal.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Has there been any events specifically this winter where the AI models and their ensembles were hits while the ops and their ensembles were whiffs that ended up snowers ?

So i assume the answer is no, not one .

[Layman]

9 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

Not trying to break balls but this is a fundamental misunderstanding of ai as it pertains to weather models. 

Could you please expand on this regarding how AI is assisting the weather models or "learning" from the outputs?  Genuinely curious for a 30kft perspective on it if you have one.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd still give it through tomorrow, but this is brutal.

We can track nrn FL getting snow at the same time as I get white rain on Saturday.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John Deer riiiight up the rear

Every power tool available in fanny.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Looks like I’ll be keeping myself bundle up after all 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Keep this on ice for the off-chance it shows a big hit for us later this season.

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and GFS unreliable lately!

[hooralph]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, this is utterly exhausting. 

Live shot of Ray preparing next update.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks like I’ll be keeping myself bundle up after all 

I'm sure they'll be enough to freeze on your driveway if left unattended.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this reminds me of Nemo but the opposite. euro was on the western front that time showing 36 inches for NYC, ended up with like 8 inches. also gfs ended up showing the most eastern solutions than lost it for a day than brought it back! Euro never wavered until  the storm was about to hit! this reminds me of that but the opposite meaning GfS should start showing western hits again by tonight the latest otherwise my theory is wrong. Also euro isn't as good since that last upgrade a few years back and GFS unreliable lately!

You remind me of every great poster but the opposite.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure they'll be enough to freeze on your driveway if left unattended.

Probably, just enough to lay down 8 tons of salt and freeze the walkway. Just what I don’t want.

Im not kidding, 0 return hobby for years now 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...slowly backs away.....seeks out nearest hedges to immerse self.

 

@dendriteto photoshop Ray’s face there?

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You remind me of every great poster but the opposite.

okay be nice i didn't say anything disrespectful i was just giving my opinion

[ROOSTA]

YOU'S PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE HOW LUCKY YOU'S ARE!

Round these parts the world is ending with temps dropping below freezing for a few hours.

 

And so it begins "WINTER"

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/14/2026 at 12:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

All Eyes On Sunday-Night-Monday

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend 

Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. 

Synoptic Overview

There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation.

 

 

This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior.

 

These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation.

 

This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday.

 

However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones.

 

Anticipate a First Call  on Friday.

 

Threat Assessment

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

@dendriteto photoshop Ray’s face there?

Now I just need John to helicopter in to my rescue and use the surface reflection over New Foundland to validate my analysis.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

okay be nice i didn't say anything disrespectful i was just giving my opinion

Just teasing, nothing personal

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can track nrn FL getting snow at the same time as I get white rain on Saturday.

Hopefully they can get another 6”+ event like last year.