December 28th - 29th Blizzard

[Powerball]

It deserves its own thread...

 

[mnchaserguy]

It deserves its own thread...
 

If this pans out, it’d be cool to read a summary of how this all played out. This wasn’t even on my radar on Christmas Day, and within 24 hours it started to look like a major snowstorm could be heading our way. It’d be interesting to read from someone more knowledgeable than me how things changed that much over such a short time frame.


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[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’m keeping my expectations in check with a ~6” storm, but it’s hard not to think big given model trends. 
 

NWS write up on this one will be a good read for sure. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

I’m a fan of using change in snow depth maps vs Kuchera. Still puts down 7-10” across the metro. 

[mnchaserguy]

I’m keeping my expectations in check with a ~6” storm, but it’s hard not to think big given model trends. 
 
NWS write up on this one will be a good read for sure. 

I think the two main things to worry about is how quickly things change from rain to snow in the morning and how much of the backside of the band pivots over us tomorrow night.


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[mnchaserguy]

0z GFS has bumped up its total for MSP.


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[sbnwx85]

Def seems like blizzard conditions will occur along the Lake Michigan shoreline in Western Michigan on Monday. Locally, the highest winds may not quite coincide with the best snows. Probably end up with an advisory IMBY.

[sbnwx85]

Blizzard to the north of me, tornadoes to the south, here I am, stuck in the middle with you

[Geoboy645]

Around here the accumulations don't seem like they are going to be that significant, 2-4" or so. However, the wind and flash freeze are going to make things bad for travel tomorrow night and Monday morning. Actually it's probably a good thing we don't really have a preexisting pack for this storm or else this would be a slam-dunk ground blizzard for most of the region. Further N, easily the most severe winter conditions since 1/12/24, if not the March 23 set of blizzards. Wouldn't be surprised if the Blizzard Warning gets extended S into WI from the UP and the LE belts. 

[Brian D]

I'm on the N edge with low expectations. N/NW wind with NE 850mb will keep the Lake hammer just to my S. A little syn of 3" (3-7" forecasted for TH) is all I'm expecting. WSW issued because of blowing with 30-40+ mph winds. Just a little more of a jog N, and I'd be golden. They also have Wind adv & High wind warning along the shore as well.

[Torchageddon]

I'm not getting the blizz but was wide-eyed once I checked on my local, an inch of rain for just today then 8" of snow right on Monday! Enormous precip amounts! The roads are already icy from the freezing rain on Boxing Day - this is going to exacerbate the mess.

[Chicago Storm]

events up north need threads more often.

[RogueWaves]

On the southern fringe for this one. Added to my existing tree ice overnight. Still below freezing but expecting a roughly 12 hr window reaching into the upper 30's. If the ground glacier can hold on the 3" of wind-blown snow tomorrow could at least make for some potential drifting. Storm Warning just a half county NW of here. Overall amounts have trended up on the regional NWS forecast map (a little bit may be from weaking clipper Tue/Wed fwiw)

 

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Mixed precip just started here. Should transition to all snow pretty quickly. 

[mothernatureisfickle]

There are many maps floating around and I’m wondering what the opinion is here about SW Michigan (Kalamazoo in the lake effect belt). We are getting pouring rain right now. Will this turn into a blizzard or just an annoying 4 inch snow after one inch of rain?

[Powerball]

Seeing some TSSN+ showing up in MN, and MSP should be flipping over now (if it hasn't already).

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Seeing some TSSN showing up in MN, and MSP should be flipping over now (if it hasn't already).

Looking out my window, seems to be all snow at this point. Deck is getting slushy 

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Looking out my window, seems to be all snow at this point. Deck is getting slushy 

Radar looks awesome for you.

Enjoy! Can't say I'm not jealous...

[TheClimateChanger]

Severe weather, including tornados, look possible as well.

[mnchaserguy]

Snowing hard now. Not much has stuck yet but it’s starting to turn white in the street. If this band can stick around for a while, this will start adding up quick.


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[OrdIowPitMsp]

12 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:

Snowing hard now. Not much has stuck yet but it’s starting to turn white in the street. If this band can stick around for a while, this will start adding up quick.


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Temps should start nose diving shortly and then we should start stacking efficiently. Solid coating on all surfaces here so far. Going to be a paste job on the trees as they freeze up.

[mnchaserguy]

Temps should start nose diving shortly and then we should start stacking efficiently. Solid coating on all surfaces here so far. Going to be a paste job on the trees as they freeze up.

Models did a pretty good job of picking that up. They showed a heavy snow band for us but not much accumulation until closer to noon.


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[mnchaserguy]

Those crashing temps are right on our doorstep.

[mnchaserguy]

Those crashing temps are right on our doorstep.

Wouldn’t let me attach the screenshot for some reason.


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[Powerball]

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, mothernatureisfickle said:

There are many maps floating around and I’m wondering what the opinion is here about SW Michigan (Kalamazoo in the lake effect belt). We are getting pouring rain right now. Will this turn into a blizzard or just an annoying 4 inch snow after one inch of rain?

You're not under a Bliz Warning so no, not a full-fledge Blizzard. Your warning calls for 4+ inches of wind-driven snow with periods of blizzard-like conditions. Have fun with it.

[RogueWaves]

Afd said 32F here by noon - still holding at 30F so warming running a bit tardy. Super icy here coating everything. Cannot remember going into a storm with such even tho most or all should be melted later.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Got out of Target right as the heavy stuff moved in. Roads are already getting terrible. 

[Stevo6899]

If I didn't know any of the details of the storm and looked at the radar right now, I'd be so pumped. Dark greens in the winter. Gross soaker.

[Brian D]

Getting robbed. Snow staying just offshore, but is filling in around DLH. Just FL here in TH. Was expecting this possibility. We'll see if it fills in a little more as the day wears on, and I get something to measure tonight.