Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I hope I'm wrong but if it doesn't frost some this weekend, it looks like Halloween or early November for frost for most of NC. 

Hot and dry winter.

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Hot and dry winter.

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24. 

[Met1985]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That would be a shocker but you never know around these parts. The next 2 weeks are a welcome drying out if El Nino really kicks up the STJ. Average first frost used to be between October 1-15 r here until about 2000. Since then its closer to October 24. 

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

Extreme hot air over the ocean supercharges evaporation leading to cloud cover and moisture downstream. Both of those would = wet and cooler weather for the south. I just  don’t see an extreme EN leading to hot and dry conditions. 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Extreme hot air over the ocean supercharges evaporation leading to cloud cover and moisture downstream. Both of those would = wet and cooler weather for the south. I just  don’t see an extreme EN leading to hot and dry conditions. 

I really hope your right buddy.  

[olafminesaw]

Dry as a bone the next couple of weeks

[Tyler Penland]

6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Extreme record breaking El Nino. Everything is on the table. There just may be too much hot air from the ocean that floods the continent except for the northern part of the country.

I'd say hot (mild) and wet. 

Boone is 50/50 on good snow or terrible snow in Super Ninos. 82/83 and 15/16 were both solid, but 97/98 and 23/24 both saw 2.5 and 2.7" season total respectively. I'll be surprised if we see any consistent cool weather until late December or January, at any rate. 3 of the 4 Super Ninos have been above average December including the record setting 2015.

At the end of the day, though, 4 winters isn't a very big sample size and with this Nino being so ridiculously strong you can pretty much toss all the analogs anyways. I'm putting my money on Pacific air flooding the southern half of the country but that's just me. Better chance for widespread severe outbreaks than widespread snow.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'd say hot (mild) and wet. 

Boone is 50/50 on good snow or terrible snow in Super Ninos. 82/83 and 15/16 were both solid, but 97/98 and 23/24 both saw 2.5 and 2.7" season total respectively. I'll be surprised if we see any consistent cool weather until late December or January, at any rate. 3 of the 4 Super Ninos have been above average December including the record setting 2015.

At the end of the day, though, 4 winters isn't a very big sample size and with this Nino being so ridiculously strong you can pretty much toss all the analogs anyways. I'm putting my money on Pacific air flooding the southern half of the country but that's just me. Better chance for widespread severe outbreaks than widespread snow.

Yeah you are right. It's a small sample size.  I was kind of being hyperbole to a point really but this is uncharted territory and we are seeing an early season weakening of the PV already.  Ig the NAO and AO fire then we are in business. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday in NC from Isaias, making it the second largest tornado outbreak from a tropical system in the states history. First place? Also Isaias (12) from 2020… Surveys are still ongoing so there’s a chance that number increases 

Also,  believe this moves the event into the top 6 single day largest tornado outbreaks in the states history.

All this with a level 2 (slight) risk. With all the recent fails during level 3 and 4 risk days it is almost fitting to set tornado records on a slight risk day. 

[NorthHillsWx]

12 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Dry as a bone the next couple of weeks

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

[GaWx]

On 10/13/2026 at 9:17 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Thanks

1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual.

2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Weeklies are suggesting.

[olafminesaw]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks

1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual.

2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Werklies are suggesting.

Yeah it's always been November but I kinda expected more of a ramp up. Maybe that was a false expectation 

[olafminesaw]

36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Yeah it's pretty comical

[NorthHillsWx]

47 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it's pretty comical

And most of that EURO rain in NC comes from the front on Friday which is a serious outlier in modeling. So there is a good chance it ends up like the rain-less GFS

[kvegas-wx]

8 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Crunchy leaves for Halloween, woohoo!!!  Way better than snow.  Growing season is about done anyway.  So I cant say I mind some dry weather to finish fall projects.  There's always December and January for cold rain.  

[Upstate Tiger]

35 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Crunchy leaves for Halloween, woohoo!!!  Way better than snow.  Growing season is about done anyway.  So I cant say I mind some dry weather to finish fall projects.  There's always December and January for cold rain.  

Halloween 1987 the upstate saw snow flurries.  Walked out of the house that morning and small flakes were falling.   Didn’t last long but pretty cool.  

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Crunchy leaves for Halloween, woohoo!!!  Way better than snow.  Growing season is about done anyway.  So I cant say I mind some dry weather to finish fall projects.  There's always December and January for cold rain.  

https://falls.uslakes.info/Level/
 

https://kerr.uslakes.info/Level/
 

Really bad situation around here shaping up if something doesn’t change 

[GaWx]

On 10/13/2026 at 9:17 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

 

On 10/13/2026 at 9:53 AM, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it's pretty comical

It is, indeed, looking dry in the SE the next ~2 weeks. The Euro Weeklies have been showing this for a number of runs. However, those same EW for 6 straight runs have also been showing the likely El Niño induced polar opposite (wetter than normal) for every one of the subsequent 4 weeks ending the Sun of Thanksgiving Week (as far out as they currently go):

Dry 10/19-25:

Mainly slightly wet 10/26-11/1:

Slightly wet 11/2-8:

Wet 11/9-15:

Slightly wet 11/16-22:

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

It is, indeed, looking dry in the SE the next ~2 weeks. The Euro Weeklies have been showing this for a number of runs. However, those same EW for 6 straight runs have also been showing the likely El Niño induced polar opposite (wetter than normal) for every one of the subsequent 4 weeks ending the Sun of Thanksgiving Week (as far out as they currently go):

Dry 10/19-25:

Mainly slightly wet 10/26-11/1:

Slightly wet 11/2-8:

Wet 11/9-15:

Slightly wet 11/16-22:

Interested in how the weeklies verify during an El Niño winter. If I recall they were excellent last year especially with temperature 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 

It is, indeed, looking dry in the SE the next ~2 weeks. The Euro Weeklies have been showing this for a number of runs. However, those same EW for 6 straight runs have also been showing the likely El Niño induced polar opposite (wetter than normal) for every one of the subsequent 4 weeks ending the Sun of Thanksgiving Week (as far out as they currently go):

Dry 10/19-25:

Mainly slightly wet 10/26-11/1:

Slightly wet 11/2-8:

Wet 11/9-15:

Slightly wet 11/16-22:

The CFS weeklies agree on the timeframe of the shift to a wetter than normal period. The long range GEFS is showing more near normal 

[olafminesaw]

On 10/13/2026 at 10:40 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

And most of that EURO rain in NC comes from the front on Friday which is a serious outlier in modeling. So there is a good chance it ends up like the rain-less GFS

About that outlier...