Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

[eyewall]

10 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

Same here. We have seen so many modeled hits fizzle out.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

5 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Halloween snow in the Triad?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[olafminesaw]

Womp womp

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Womp womp

 This like another map I saw this morning shows that I’d get within just the next few days at least as much as I got in all of pretty dry Sept., which was ~2.55”. So, I hope it verifies pretty closely for MBY. In reality due to the showery nature of some of this producing isolated heavy amounts, I realize there will likely be significant variations in totals within pretty short distances though.

[olafminesaw]

National blend of models forecast for the next week 

[wncsnow]

The rain amounts are definitely a lot lower on most models. Looks like less than an inch for most of WNC now and possibly less than .50 for the northern foothills and piedmont. 

[ClaytonWx]

Everyone else is seeing this clowny GFS run right? Bringing snow showers through the Triad and even pushing into the Triangle. Couldn’t believe my eyes, but it is the GFS after all.

[eyewall]

Lock it in!

[NorthHillsWx]

On 9/29/2026 at 9:01 AM, eyewall said:

Same here. We have seen so many modeled hits fizzle out.

 

On 9/28/2026 at 10:18 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ll believe it when I see it

Rinse and repeat, rainfall in central NC not going to amount to nearly the totals we were expecting all week:

Given the mesoscale and subsequent nrn stream influences noted
above, precipitation amounts have trended lower across model
guidance in the past 24 hours for cntl NC, particularly over the
Piedmont.

[olafminesaw]

[cbmclean]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

Rinse and repeat, rainfall in central NC not going to amount to nearly the totals we were expecting all week:

Given the mesoscale and subsequent nrn stream influences noted
above, precipitation amounts have trended lower across model
guidance in the past 24 hours for cntl NC, particularly over the
Piedmont.

Latest HRRR as posted by @olafminesaw is a kick in the nads for the norther tier, which for some reason has been unable to catch a break since the end of July.  Mean while the southern tier still set for a decent soaking.

The NAM still looks much better for the NE quadrant, including Wake, but how much stock can you put in a model that is at death's door?

Really impatient for the el nino southern jet stream to kick in

[wncsnow]

The southern stream is still dead. It should wake up for real in the next month or 2

[cbmclean]

Unexpectedly heavy rain has snuck in.  I'm at 0.60" which has already exceeded the HRRR guidance for the entire weekend (as of the 12Z map that was posted by @olafminesaw).  A fast start for a change.

Edit: Looks like I'll end with 0.91" for this batch.  The radar didn't look too impressive but it was an efficient rain maker.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

The southern stream is still dead. It should wake up for real in the next month or 2

I wonder if we'll be sick of rain come March.

[Snowacane]

25 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I wonder if we'll be sick of rain come March.

I wonder if it will really rain

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Snowacane said:

I wonder if it will really rain

It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.

[strongwxnc]

It would be ironic if the super-hyper-mega nino fails to couple in terms of the SJ and we end up with dry Pac puke all winter instead of wet Pac puke.

Always weary of any super Uber hype.


.

[eyewall]

This entire summer except for late July was horrible and now the start of fall sucks too. Even worse is the models have backed off a bit on the extent of the cool down. The leaf change is expected to suck as well due to the drought. 

[Avdave]

Time to watch the gulf of mexico, maybe something stirring later this week, maybe some good rains this way?

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, Avdave said:

Time to watch the gulf of mexico, maybe something stirring later this week, maybe some good rains this way?

Indeed! Model consensus has plentiful to possibly even flooding rains (especially on/near the Gulf coast) in some areas of the SE this weekend! There will likely be a dedicated thread in the Tropical section for this soon:

 

Now cherry (30%/70%):

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Southwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual
development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This
system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before
it turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

[GaWx]

 The thread for the Gulf tropical threat has been started:

 

[olafminesaw]

NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu

[BooneWX]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu

App State has a home game on Saturday, so this threat has legs.

[Avdave]

6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

NBM for the next week. I'm getting de ja vu

By Saturday it will show Raleigh to expect .25" as usual

[nrgjeff]

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore.

I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... 

At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

For Saturday the SPC highlights the coastal boundary moving north. Should be all kinds of shear there, especially as warmer air moves onshore.

I'm still watching for later Saturday farther inland across Alabama. If a hybrid system can get an open quasi warm sector going, I could imagine some north-south bands of low toppers too. Would need the rain shield to scoot away and destabilization. Otherwise, the coastal front would be the focus. My zone is TBD for a couple days still. Need a named storm to model. For now, from the SPC for Sat... 

At this time, it appears Sat/D5 is the most likely time for the more substantial low-level warming to occur, with tropical yet sufficiently unstable profiles. Of particular note is how the developing shortwave trough over TX interacts with the tropical low. Some models indicate 40-45 kt midlevel winds, which would complement the strong low-level shear and favor low-topped supercells with tornado potential. The greatest threat area should be along the coastal counties given expected poor low-level lapse rates farther inland. Initial elevated convection may give way to an east-west zone of supercells as the coastal baroclinic zone moves inland. Some additional threat into Sun/D6 may exist as well.

 Do you think that the GA/AL game in Tuscaloosa on Sat night (7:30PM EDT start) will be heavily impacted?