Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[marsman]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

July Nor’easter

 

Interesting. Sub-tropical or just a tad too far north? 

[yotaman]

Nor'easter in July?

[wncsnow]

Severe outbreak in late July? 

[eyewall]

I will be chasing this tomorrow. 

[olafminesaw]

35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Severe outbreak in late July? 

HRRR sounding in the triad Tuesday evening. I do kinda wonder if upper level wildfire smoke will tamp down the potential somewhat 

[BooneWX]

Craving a Manitoba Mauler

[BooneWX]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Craving a Manitoba Mauler

I want it to dig to Galveston before it starts gaining latitude again 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Question for tomorrow. Do we see increased cloud cover late morning and early afternoon? Or do we clear out? That's gonna be the deciding factor. 

 

Girlfriends flight lands around 8pm tomorrow evening at the charlotte airport. Might get interesting.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

And a last second major wild card for this evening has shown. Heading SSE, this could thwart the severe threat for a lot. 

[Met1985]

36 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

And a last second major wild card for this evening has shown. Heading SSE, this could thwart the severe threat for a lot. 

Looks like this will weaken and by this afternoon around 2 things should start heating up.

[eyewall]

NWS Raleigh mentions the possibility of it being a reduced threat to the west. I plan on chasing today if necessary from Raleigh northeastward.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

NWS Raleigh mentions the possibility of it being a reduced threat to the west. I plan on chasing today if necessary from Raleigh northeastward.

SPC UPGRADED tornado probabilities for the CLT area and NE up to 5%. 

 

I didnt see that one coming. 

[Met1985]

6 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

SPC UPGRADED tornado probabilities for the CLT area and NE up to 5%. 

 

I didnt see that one coming. 

It's an unstable environment.  You can definitely tell that from the storms firing this morning. 

[eyewall]

The main issue I am seeing right now is fairly extensive cloud cover coming out of VA. I am not sure how much we will destabilize given that factor. Shear will not be the problem here. The clouds will be. That has me concerned. 

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The main issue I am seeing right now is fairly extensive cloud cover coming out of VA. I am not sure how much we will destabilize given that factor. Shear will not be the problem here. The clouds will be. That has me concerned. 

The HRRR/hires NAM have basically no convection after the MCS rolls through outside of far Eastern NC. It's not looking good TBH

[eyewall]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The HRRR/hires NAM have basically no convection after the MCS rolls through outside of far Eastern NC. It's not looking good TBH

Yeah I am seeing that too. We may be cooked here.

[NorthHillsWx]

I think the threat is subsiding because of upstream convection/cloud cover. There might be some chance in southern and eastern areas but the MCV is holding together quite well and on models with the stronger storm look this afternoon it was already weakening more than it has. Think the main threat is probably eastern NC

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Substantial cloud cover in CLT, it appears the initial line is currently has slowed it's build to the south and may slide east of CLT. Question after that becomes "will the cloud cover dissipate?"

 

More scattered light showers behind the main line that may make into CLT, but the mountains appeared to have done their normal thing and shredded the western flank. 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I am seeing that too. We may be cooked here.

Latest HRRR is much more promising FWIW probably more run of the mill borderline severe but something 

[BooneWX]

I think the likelihood is actually increasing for the western part of nc. It may take cams a bit to catch on but the sun is fully coming out with plenty to go upstream. 

[Met1985]

Just now, BooneWX said:

I think the likelihood is actually increasing for the western part of nc. It may take cams a bit to catch on but the sun is fully coming out with plenty to go upstream. 

Yeah sun is coming out here as well. Heating up in no time.  Actually clear skies over me now.