Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

Brown water effect. It’s been wet in the Miss River Valley recently. 

[olafminesaw]

Let's hope that tropical thing does something. Otherwise prospects are paltry over the next week

[BooneWX]

20 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Let's hope that tropical thing does something. Otherwise prospects are paltry over the next week

I don’t buy paltry totals with the track on the euro. That flow and upglide into the piedmont is going to wring out everything 

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I don’t buy paltry totals with the track on the euro. That flow and upglide into the piedmont is going to wring out everything 

Agreed, interesting days ahead perhaps 

[CentralNC]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Agreed, interesting days ahead perhaps 

Hope so.  Really bad at my location.  It has rained some within 5 miles of the house, but ZERO rain here for all of June.  NADA.  Nobody mowing grass around me at all.

[Jimbo!]

It was TS Erin in 2007 over Oklahoma. I have to check but I thought Erin formed around the same spot S of TX as this to-be ghost of Erin but higher intensity over OK than the gulf.

That’s the one. Thanks. I’m prepared if needed to start the thread lol


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[NorthHillsWx]

I think the drought might be completely ended in a lot of Georgia by next week if this tropical low moves through as predicted 

[GaWx]

 Link to Invest 90L thread:

 

 

[wncsnow]

System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low. 

[olafminesaw]

38 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low. 

Yep. The Euro AI has been on it for the past couple days with the southern cutoff as per usual

[NorthHillsWx]

No hope for drought ravaged areas of northern piedmont. Discussion from RAH:

QPF still remains quite variable
and in flux, but remains rather light (mostly under a 0.25 to
0.50). The GFS shows absolutely nothing over the drought plagued
northern Piedmont of NC. The hi-res models are now coming into
range, but do not offer much hope.

We need a pattern change. The pattern has been so persistent
with either a dominate ridge aloft or a zonal flow. The areas
east of the Appalachians have had an atypical mountain shadow
hole in the rainfall due variations of a dominate westerly flow
in the mid levels for quite some time. We need a break in the
mid/upper levels over our region or a dominate Bermuda high with
SW flow aloft to consistently bring Gulf moisture and lift to
the region. This is not seen in the foreseeable future. The
zeros keep stacking up.

[SUNYGRAD]

Not good at all.  We most likely see more water restrictions North Carolina Water Restrictions 2026 | Watering Schedule

[olafminesaw]

SPC knows the NC wall of dry air

[GaWx]

 TS Arthur has been born:

 

[olafminesaw]

Pain 

[NorthHillsWx]

45 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Pain 

After another week without rain I cant imagine tomorrow’s drought update will be very pretty for NC

[EarlGrey]

My last measurable rainfall IMBY was May 24. 

[Avdave]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

After another week without rain I cant imagine tomorrow’s drought update will be very pretty for NC

Well we know it can get any worse category at least 

[JoshM]

just gonna leave this here, for now.

[JoshM]

0z NAM said, I'll just shoot way north!

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Models have generally trended north with the low overnight, and thus wetter in some of the worst drought areas. The potential exists for most areas in piedmont to get at least 1/2” with some 1”+ amounts. That would make this possibly the largest event since August, the last time I recorded over 1” from an event. Still not certain as there could be a sharp gradient but overnight trends continuing into this morning were encouraging 

[CentralNC]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Models have generally trended north with the low overnight, and thus wetter in some of the worst drought areas. The potential exists for most areas in piedmont to get at least 1/2” with some 1”+ amounts. That would make this possibly the largest event since August, the last time I recorded over 1” from an event. Still not certain as there could be a sharp gradient but overnight trends continuing into this morning were encouraging 

Let's hope so.  I have no measurable rain at my house this month.

[olafminesaw]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Models have generally trended north with the low overnight, and thus wetter in some of the worst drought areas. The potential exists for most areas in piedmont to get at least 1/2” with some 1”+ amounts. That would make this possibly the largest event since August, the last time I recorded over 1” from an event. Still not certain as there could be a sharp gradient but overnight trends continuing into this morning were encouraging 

For sure. Weird seeing positive trends for once

[UnionCountyNCWX]

What im hearing is the LP is shown to be actually strengthening as its coming up through Georgia which is why model outputs look a little different this morning.

I want to say "for the better" but also showing increased wind and heavy rain may be an issue for limbs and power lines.  

[BooneWX]

WAGONS NORTH

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

WAGONS NORTH

Let’s ride

[SEwakenosnowforu]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Let’s ride

Maybe there should be a storm thread for this so we can all watch the storm go poof??

[Jimbo!]

Much like Thomas Jefferson, should I bring the thunder?


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[NorthHillsWx]

Short range guidance has trended very wet for triangle and triad with some 2-3” amounts showing up. This could be the rainfall event we’be been waiting on to at least make a dent 

[BooneWX]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Short range guidance has trended very wet for triangle and triad with some 2-3” amounts showing up. This could be the rainfall event we’be been waiting on to at least make a dent 

Good to see yall score. It’s warm but based on the short range guidance, I think rates will overcome and you should get some solid dynamic cooling from the top down.