Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

 OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also we are getting Dewpoints in the mid 60s instead of low 70s, so it's kinda a wash from a heat index standpoint 

Yes, the lack of humidity has been noticeable thus far. Desert life was a foreign concept before this summer 

[NorthHillsWx]

This weeks drought monitor showed significant worsening of conditions across NC with the triangle area finally slipping into D4 for first time since the 2007-2008 drought. 

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It’s been 17 days since the last measurable rain here. The number of 2+ week rainless stretches dating back to last year insane, I wish I tracked that 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Latest GFS doesn't show a whole lot of promise. the only "meaningful" rain fall set up looks to be next Tuesday and Wednesday. Sure the overall isolated/scattered afternoon storms seems like a good bet just about everyday. but only one real chance of an area wide rain through basically the end of the month. 

[NorthHillsWx]

On 6/10/2026 at 10:06 AM, GaWx said:

The extreme dry soils in parts of NC are favoring that highs there will be a little hotter and threaten records vs most other areas of the SE. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Much will depend on the pattern of mid afternoon pop-up thunderstorm activity and how far reaching are the associated outflow boundaries.

 OTOH, the ATL area, where it has been raining a good bit more, isn’t favored to threaten record highs. Their forecasts have mainly lower 90s.

I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think RDU has a shot to break the all-time record again. RAH calling for 102 and RDU has a habit of exceeding that during dry periods as you outlined 

 As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a a good shot at ~101-2 despite the NWS forecast having “only” upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity:

“TODAY   MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS   AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO   10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.”

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

The Triangle, Triad, and neighboring S VA was the only area in the entire SE to notably worsen as the rest of the SE either was unchanged or improved vs last week’s map.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 As of noon, RDU (and Rocky Mt, NC also) was at 94F, not surprisingly THE hottest in the entire SE. I’m including all SE states including FL. With 94 at noon, RDU has a a good shot at ~101-2 despite the NWS forecast having “only” upper 90s for the Raleigh area. This, of course, is assuming that clouds and convection don’t start to increase there or even in the general vicinity:

“TODAY   MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS   AFTERNOON. HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO   10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102.”

I meant tomorrow but we are likely going over 100 today. 98.2 at my house right now 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I meant tomorrow but we are likely going over 100 today. 98.2 at my house right now 

RDU officially recorded 101. 

[olafminesaw]

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

At least the models are seeing reality now 

[eyewall]

The severe risk completely busted in NC today 

[CentralNC]

11 hours ago, eyewall said:

The severe risk completely busted in NC today 

No doubt.  I was a little hopeful, but am slowly learning to basically ignore any rain threats coming from the NW.  They simply don't make it past the Yadkin river.  

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, CentralNC said:

No doubt.  I was a little hopeful, but am slowly learning to basically ignore any rain threats coming from the NW.  They simply don't make it past the Yadkin river.  

We had all the severe storms here in the west. I had some pea size hail with torrential rainfall yesterday. 

[SUNYGRAD]

...perhaps a "LID" was probably partly to blame----Nothing really strong enough to break it in past I-77?   Used the sounding from GSO 00Z, since any convection was to be around that time frame across central NC.  Relative humidity levels between 500 and 700 relatively low, evident on sounding, but maybe part of why little convection took place over the central NC.  Always pieces to a puzzle.  Just my thoughts.

 

[SUNYGRAD]

SPC Hourly Mesoscale Analysis - Archive Viewer.  You can loop this and see what I mentioned above.