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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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Significant improvements on this weeks drought monitor for pretty much everywhere in region besides northern piedmont of NC. Some areas have gone all the way to just the “abnormally dry” category and much of SC and eastern NC is now only in “moderate” category. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

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21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Significant improvements on this weeks drought monitor for pretty much everywhere in region besides northern piedmont of NC. Some areas have gone all the way to just the “abnormally dry” category and much of SC and eastern NC is now only in “moderate” category. 
 

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Southeast

Good news here. Not surprisingly, the “exceptional” that covered most of SE GA has improved one level to “extreme”. Reason to celebrate as it’s “only” extreme now. :lol:  

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 Yesterday’s 12Z EPS had nearly 50% of its members with a TCG in S Gulf/NW Car late next week with most of those then heading to the U.S. Gulf coast the following week. 

 However, the 0Z EPS cut back significantly on the % of members with Gulf TCG vs yesterday’s 12Z run. It will be interesting to see how future runs compare.

 The 6Z GEFS has significantly increased activity vs earlier runs.

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If we get the rain that is predicted over the next 10 days, the ATL area in general should be almost out of the drought. I sure hope everyone to our East and north East of us can cash in on some of this tropical moisture. 

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20 hours ago, EarlGrey said:

Getting ready to wash the car so I know it will rain. I’m sure the water will flash evaporate on it today. :blahblah:

Just finished my car. It had over a week of dust from the foundation waterproofer redoing our front yard. I don't even recognize my car now. 

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3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

So so so dry. This is a top 1-2 drought in my lifetime for the Raleigh area. Yard is concrete and just dead besides where I have had time to spray it in mornings. The once a week irrigation rule was fine until it got this hot 

Yea stick a fork in my yard Its done for the year

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On 6/7/2026 at 9:06 AM, GaWx said:

 Yesterday’s 12Z EPS had nearly 50% of its members with a TCG in S Gulf/NW Car late next week with most of those then heading to the U.S. Gulf coast the following week. 

 However, the 0Z EPS cut back significantly on the % of members with Gulf TCG vs yesterday’s 12Z run. It will be interesting to see how future runs compare.

 The 6Z GEFS has significantly increased activity vs earlier runs.

 Since yesterday, the non-AI ensemble progged Gulf tropical activity has diminished other than for perhaps the Bay of Campeche, which would be favored to landfall in MX. (The AI never picked up on anything much.)

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