Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[GaWx]

 The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week:

Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

[eyewall]

Not much help in the northern tier of NC but the south cashed in:

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[NorthHillsWx]

20 hours ago, eyewall said:

Not much help in the northern tier of NC but the south cashed in:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yep northern piedmont missed out, about the only area in the entire region that did. Looks quite dry going forward too

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

 

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

 

[GaWx]

 The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

[NorthHillsWx]

47 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June:

2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN

 

3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

 

A rainy period is always 3 weeks away here now… Raleigh all but guaranteed to slip into level 2 water restrictions. Saw the lake was headed to 70% (currently 73%) and current restrictions went in at 85%. 60% is next level and that will come quicker as water usage increases in summer 

[NorthHillsWx]

The Burlington to Wilson Sahara:

https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2060427868295885014?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Elite weather

 

[olafminesaw]

[UnionCountyNCWX]

We got absolutely smashed in union county this morning. Was not expecting that. (Was only in town from Charlotte to mow grass, that obviously didnt happen)

[UnionCountyNCWX]

42 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It amazes me how many times this map has been repeated this spring.