Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[WiseWeather]

Of course it gets rainy the week of the 600


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[kvegas-wx]

1 hour ago, WiseWeather said:

Of course it gets rainy the week of the 600


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9 hour race incoming.  Finish at 2am again.  But damn we need the rain.  

[WiseWeather]

9 hour race incoming.  Finish at 2am again.  But damn we need the rain.  

Or a CBell scenario…. Either way… ill be there.


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[Met1985]

This would definitely be something...

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[BooneWX]

Like clockwork, the short-med range is drying out fast.


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[Met1985]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Like clockwork, the short-med range is drying out fast.


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Drought forever 

[Met1985]

This is exactly what we need. Ample supply of gulf moisture.

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[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Like clockwork, the short-med range is drying out fast.


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Ensembles haven’t changed much. Still looks wet. Only concerning thing I have is boundary setting up north and west of triangle area. Seems to have trended stronger with SER recently meaning boundary is pushed back somewhat 

[wncsnow]

51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Ensembles haven’t changed much. Still looks wet. Only concerning thing I have is boundary setting up north and west of triangle area. Seems to have trended stronger with SER recently meaning boundary is pushed back somewhat 

That's my concern. Some models are pushing those heavier totals west with this strong Bermuda High. TN Valley looks inundated for sure but how much makes it east of the Apps?

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That's my concern. Some models are pushing those heavier totals west with this strong Bermuda High. TN Valley looks inundated for sure but how much makes it east of the Apps?

Would be par for the course if we watch most of this go west of apps and around us but at a minimum it looks like a return to at least scattered afternoon storms across NC most days 

[BooneWX]

I’ll settle for below average rain at this point by our normal standards. I’d be over the moon if we could just average a .25” per week at this juncture.


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[suzook]

So precip being pushed more west....uhm, this has happened since last year. I sure hope we can all cash in.

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, suzook said:

So precip being pushed more west....uhm, this has happened since last year. I sure hope we can all cash in.

As of now, precip being focused to our west means flooding/flash flooding W of the Apps and just run of the mill above average rainfall with daily storm chances here.

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

As of now, precip being focused to our west means flooding/flash flooding W of the Apps and just run of the mill above average rainfall with daily storm chances here.

Yea ensembles haven’t really budged. I’m confident we see daily storm chances starting Wednesday/Thursday depending where you are and continuing for the next week. If we can get near normal rainfall it will be a huge win considering where we stand currently. Drove over falls lake here earlier and it is shocking how much it has fallen in last 2 weeks

[suzook]

Just as I expected. All those storms that were supposed to start around Wednesday, are now pushed out until MAYBE Sunday in my area. Drought continues to get worse.

[olafminesaw]

[SUNYGRAD]

[SUNYGRAD]

 

[SUNYGRAD]

[NorthHillsWx]

In case anyone was wondering, overnight and morning trends look great for NC 

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In case anyone was wondering, overnight and morning trends look great for NC 

Yes sir they do.

[olafminesaw]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

In case anyone was wondering, overnight and morning trends look great for NC 

I also saw a tweet that mid/long range forecast accuracy has increased dramatically over the last couple weeks as expected as we begin to move out of meteorological spring.

[Maggie Valley Steve]

Keep an eye on the TUTT low generally heading W from the NE of the Bahamas. That feature could assist with some much needed rainfall across portions of the SE.

[Met1985]

45 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Keep an eye on the TUTT low generally heading W from the NE of the Bahamas. That feature could assist with some much needed rainfall across portions of the SE.

A lot of tropical moisture to work with. 

[Upstate Tiger]

1 hour ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Keep an eye on the TUTT low generally heading W from the NE of the Bahamas. That feature could assist with some much needed rainfall across portions of the SE.

Wasn’t this the feature that nearly wrecked our 1/31 winter storm because it interrupted the gulf moisture transport?  

[Maggie Valley Steve]

39 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Wasn’t this the feature that nearly wrecked our 1/31 winter storm because it interrupted the gulf moisture transport?  

This is a different animal altogether. This TUTT low has traversed the Atlantic along with the Saharan Dust currently moving into the far Eastern Caribbean.

[btownheel]

Gimme dat.


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