Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

This was a really interesting seasonal update. Would love to know their thinking for such a small max in the Apps, lee and piedmont regions, but I assume they’re counting on a lot of diurnal convection and high elevation initiation. Sign me up. Other than snow, nothing beats a 90° day getting its knees taken out by some drifters off the mountains, leading to a nice rain cooled 75° evening on the porch.


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[NorthHillsWx]

Not to be a downer and I will certainly take the increased rain chances but the first couple of systems next week are weakening cold fronts that will not result in widespread soaking rain. These have all trended weaker up until the day they move through all winter and spring so my hopes are not high. Any rain is good but I don’t think we see much potential for real relief until the very end of next week. 

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not to be a downer and I will certainly take the increased rain chances but the first couple of systems next week are weakening cold fronts that will not result in widespread soaking rain. These have all trended weaker up until the day they move through all winter and spring so my hopes are not high. Any rain is good but I don’t think we see much potential for real relief until the very end of next week. 

I agree to a point, but it seems likely we will get multiple opportunities over the next two weeks. Sometimes a few .5" rainfalls is better than one big 2" rainfall for busting drought. Hopefully we can stop the bleeding anyway 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I agree to a point, but it seems likely we will get multiple opportunities over the next two weeks. Sometimes a few .5" rainfalls is better than one big 2" rainfall for busting drought. Hopefully we can stop the bleeding anyway 

0.5” would be great, I’m worried it will be 0.15”

[NorthHillsWx]

The weekend is now completely dry on 12z GFS. Sat into Sunday has a 90% chance of rain here per NWS point click 

[suzook]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The weekend is now completely dry on 12z GFS. Sat into Sunday has a 90% chance of rain here per NWS point click 

Same ole story last 9 mos. Ridiculous 

[wncsnow]

Models are hinting at more cold/frost for mountains/foothills in early May. 

[wncsnow]

Also- this aint gonna cut it

[olafminesaw]

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

[wncsnow]

27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

Less than 2 inches of rain in 16 days in late April/Early May is closer to average than being wet. 

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Also- this aint gonna cut it

Exactly. Everything needs to be 200-400 Miles further East. That would be a Drought denter.

 

[wncsnow]

23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly. Everything needs to be 200-400 Miles further East. That would be a Drought denter.

 

I keep seeing that pesky NW flow showing up again in early May. There will be little to no rain east of the Apps with that.  

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

So....It's the same as it was ALL winter until it finally snowed (for most) in February. It's always 10 days to 2 weeks out. ALWAYS. we will get rain (decent rain...I don't mean sprinkles)maybe by the middle of May. It's literally a dream to think it's going to happen before then.

 

Keep posting the pretty colored maps, I'll keep saying show me the colors 48 hours out. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Last week 22% of NC was in extreme (D3) drought. I’d expect a large jump after another rainless week and the compounding heat wave we experienced. 

[GaWx]

 Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE:

Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row

 

Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

[wncsnow]

Following the Op Euro. Still the best model ever created 

[wncsnow]

What we really need is a stalled frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. Instead we get lows going into the OH valley and mostly dry fronts leading to NW flow behind it and cool air. 

[BooneWX]

It used to be a near guarantee this time of year to have 2-3 cutoff ULL’s get trapped in the southeast and produce a week straight of light rain and cool weather. 

[NorthHillsWx]

15 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last week 22% of NC was in extreme (D3) drought. I’d expect a large jump after another rainless week and the compounding heat wave we experienced. 

The drought predictably exploded from 22 to 38% of the state in D3 or “Extreme” drought. D4 “Exceptional” areas in Georgia and Florida expanded as well, though slightly 

[bckhd2]

Extreme Drought % (SE Region):

VA - 1.86%

NC - 38.11%

SC - 39.63%

AL - 46.29%

GA - 71.04%

FL - 76.65%

Wildfires growing in South Georgia; 30,000 acres burned in Clinch and Echols counties near the GA/FL state line, another one with 5,000 acres burned in Brantley County west of Brunswick. Smoke and haze being reported as far north as the Atlanta metro area. The governor's office has declared a state of emergency and issued a burn ban for counties in south and central GA.

[eyewall]

33 minutes ago, bckhd2 said:

Extreme Drought % (SE Region):

VA - 1.86%

NC - 38.11%

SC - 39.63%

AL - 46.29%

GA - 71.04%

FL - 76.65%

Wildfires growing in South Georgia; 30,000 acres burned in Clinch and Echols counties near the GA/FL state line, another one with 5,000 acres burned in Brantley County west of Brunswick. Smoke and haze being reported as far north as the Atlanta metro area. The governor's office has declared a state of emergency and issued a burn ban for counties in south and central GA.

Yep it is bad throughout the Southeast. 

[suzook]

I mean eventually it will rain, but every time we get within a few days the rain disappears. So the drought and fires will continue to worse. This spring is a big pile of dogshit. Enough already.

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

I mean eventually it will rain, but every time we get within a few days the rain disappears. So the drought and fires will continue to worse. This spring is a big pile of dogshit. Enough already.

Yeah usually I am posting several shelf cloud shots by now or even a few wall clouds but not this year. Maybe a I need to chase dust devils.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days:

Yesterday’s run:

Today’s run: ATL back to >1”

[suzook]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days:

Yesterday’s run:

Today’s run: ATL back to >1”

I mean at this point a half inch the next week would obviously be better than nothing. 

[NorthHillsWx]

18z came in wetter on most models for the Carolina’s this weekend 

[wncsnow]

Shields activate! 

[Met1985]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Shields activate! 

WTF!

[wncsnow]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

WTF!

Not saying its right but the Op Euro has been consistent with the dry area east of the Apps. Surely as we get later into May it will start filling in. 

[Upstate Tiger]

My rain chances for tonight and tomorrow are falling like cheap lard. 
 

My yard is brown and crunchy.