Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[BooneWX]

This was a really interesting seasonal update. Would love to know their thinking for such a small max in the Apps, lee and piedmont regions, but I assume they’re counting on a lot of diurnal convection and high elevation initiation. Sign me up. Other than snow, nothing beats a 90° day getting its knees taken out by some drifters off the mountains, leading to a nice rain cooled 75° evening on the porch.


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[NorthHillsWx]

Not to be a downer and I will certainly take the increased rain chances but the first couple of systems next week are weakening cold fronts that will not result in widespread soaking rain. These have all trended weaker up until the day they move through all winter and spring so my hopes are not high. Any rain is good but I don’t think we see much potential for real relief until the very end of next week. 

[olafminesaw]

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not to be a downer and I will certainly take the increased rain chances but the first couple of systems next week are weakening cold fronts that will not result in widespread soaking rain. These have all trended weaker up until the day they move through all winter and spring so my hopes are not high. Any rain is good but I don’t think we see much potential for real relief until the very end of next week. 

I agree to a point, but it seems likely we will get multiple opportunities over the next two weeks. Sometimes a few .5" rainfalls is better than one big 2" rainfall for busting drought. Hopefully we can stop the bleeding anyway 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

I agree to a point, but it seems likely we will get multiple opportunities over the next two weeks. Sometimes a few .5" rainfalls is better than one big 2" rainfall for busting drought. Hopefully we can stop the bleeding anyway 

0.5” would be great, I’m worried it will be 0.15”

[NorthHillsWx]

The weekend is now completely dry on 12z GFS. Sat into Sunday has a 90% chance of rain here per NWS point click 

[suzook]

25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The weekend is now completely dry on 12z GFS. Sat into Sunday has a 90% chance of rain here per NWS point click 

Same ole story last 9 mos. Ridiculous 

[wncsnow]

Models are hinting at more cold/frost for mountains/foothills in early May. 

[wncsnow]

Also- this aint gonna cut it

[olafminesaw]

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

[wncsnow]

27 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

Less than 2 inches of rain in 16 days in late April/Early May is closer to average than being wet. 

[Daniel Boone]

43 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Also- this aint gonna cut it

Exactly. Everything needs to be 200-400 Miles further East. That would be a Drought denter.

 

[wncsnow]

23 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Exactly. Everything needs to be 200-400 Miles further East. That would be a Drought denter.

 

I keep seeing that pesky NW flow showing up again in early May. There will be little to no rain east of the Apps with that.  

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Ensembles people. Also the rainfall potential this weekend was always paltry (few models more than .25), the wetter period starts later next week and has mostly held the course

So....It's the same as it was ALL winter until it finally snowed (for most) in February. It's always 10 days to 2 weeks out. ALWAYS. we will get rain (decent rain...I don't mean sprinkles)maybe by the middle of May. It's literally a dream to think it's going to happen before then.

 

Keep posting the pretty colored maps, I'll keep saying show me the colors 48 hours out. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Last week 22% of NC was in extreme (D3) drought. I’d expect a large jump after another rainless week and the compounding heat wave we experienced. 

[GaWx]

 Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE:

Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row

 

Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE

[wncsnow]

Following the Op Euro. Still the best model ever created 

[wncsnow]

What we really need is a stalled frontal boundary with multiple waves of low pressure riding along it. Instead we get lows going into the OH valley and mostly dry fronts leading to NW flow behind it and cool air.