Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Jmoon]

28 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Thanks P. Allen Smith

He knows it all brother. 

[StantonParkHoya]

He knows it all brother. 

I know it’s time to put away the dreams of snow and cold and embrace the season of Spring


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[GaWx]

2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I know it’s time to put away the dreams of snow and cold and embrace the season of Spring


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 It’s already been like summer for many in the SE on many days this month. Many are headed for one of the warmest Marches on record. I have enough summer as it is. I’d prefer March be more like a spring month. Thus, I’m looking forward to the cooldown and am hoping April overall comes in less warm than March. This has zero to do with snow.

[Coach McGuirk]

Supposed to be 83 tomorrow here, a record high. 

[Upstate Tiger]

4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I know it’s time to put away the dreams of snow and cold and embrace the season of Spring


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Why?  She smells like a blooming Bradford Pear tree, is covered in an obnoxious yellow powder, draws flies, and can’t make her mind up from one day to the next.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Tomorrow is a real threat to push 90 degrees in areas. My point click is showing 87. Record high for the date is 85. Today’s forecast shows 82, with the record to beat being 81. It is starting out cooler than forecast though, currently sitting at 51 

[NorthHillsWx]

If RDU hits 90 tomorrow it will not only break the daily record, it would be the earliest 90 degree day in RDUs history. The average first 90 degree day for RDU is May 11, if that puts into perspective how impressive that would be. I’m not saying it will happen but with a forecast high of 87 it would not take much to come close 

[suzook]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Tomorrow is a real threat to push 90 degrees in areas. My point click is showing 87. Record high for the date is 85. Today’s forecast shows 82, with the record to beat being 81. It is starting out cooler than forecast though, currently sitting at 51 

Crazy. Could be 90 tomorrow, and mid 20's beginning of next week. Definitely a possibility of damage to plants bloomed already. My Bermuda grass is already 80% green. 

[Met1985]

Speaking of one extreme to the next. This is as extreme as you can get. 90 1 day and possible flakes the next.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[eyewall]

The Euro shows it to a lesser extent for Thursday. Either way the ground will be super warm.

[GaWx]

 The 6Z GFS suite is looking really stupid in being on its own including all of the main short term models in showing a snow threat in portions of C and E NC on Thu (3/12). Why is the GFS showing this??

GFS (Kuchera):

 

GEFS mean (10:1):

 

GEFS mean is almost all from the clueless members 4 and 14 with a small assist by 2 and 7 while the other 26 members essentially have nothing outside of the mtns:

[NorthHillsWx]

Extremely active storm track but fortunately it seems west of here for the near future. Possibly a significant tornado day in Texas and maybe even Illinois today. If energy keeps rising from Texas to Michigan we will keep catching tail end of systems with highest severe threats when they are this week west of here

[Upstate Tiger]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GFS suite is looking really stupid in being on its own including all of the main short term models in showing a snow threat in portions of C and E NC on Thu (3/12). Why is the GFS showing this??

GFS (Kuchera):

 

GEFS mean (10:1):

 

GEFS mean is almost all from the clueless members 4 and 14 with a small assist by 2 and 7 while the other 26 members essentially have nothing outside of the mtns:

The 06Z GFS shows some post St. Pattrick's Day snow for the SC coast .  That would cause some confusion for those who celebrated a little late the night before.  They would wake up thinking they slept through spring, summer, and fall.  

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6Z GFS suite is looking really stupid in being on its own including all of the main short term models in showing a snow threat in portions of C and E NC on Thu (3/12). Why is the GFS showing this??

GFS (Kuchera):

 

GEFS mean (10:1):

 

GEFS mean is almost all from the clueless members 4 and 14 with a small assist by 2 and 7 while the other 26 members essentially have nothing outside of the mtns:

GFS drives 850s below freezing much sooner than anything else. Not much difference synoptically or in surface depiction between it and anything else. Just way too quick with post frontal CAA east of mountains with the passage of the strong arctic front. I could see flakes mix in somewhere in Virginia but this will not be more than that (and mountain snow). Not really worth over analyzing, GFS just defies physics while other models understand cold is delayed by the mountains 

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS drives 850s below freezing much sooner than anything else. Not much difference synoptically or in surface depiction between it and anything else. Just way too quick with post frontal CAA east of mountains with the passage of the strong arctic front. I could see flakes mix in somewhere in Virginia but this will not be more than that (and mountain snow). Not really worth over analyzing, GFS just defies physics while other models understand cold is delayed by the mountains 

 Thanks for your explanation. I see that the surface temp is safely above 32.

 Here’s the surface pressures of the relevant 6Z GEFS members as of the end of the snow period for portions of NC: what do they (2, 4, 7, and 14) have in common? lowest SLP both stronger and centered ~150-200 miles off SE coast:

 

And here’s the 6 hour qpf: check out member 14 with its 1.25” swath:

[GaWx]

Now you see it:

Now you almost don’t (to nobody’s surprise of course):

[Met1985]

Whether snow or no snow the cold air is coming again. 

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Whether snow or no snow the cold air is coming again. 

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.

[Met1985]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.

Short but will be stout. Currently looking at the low to mid teens here in the mountains with flow snow.

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Short but will be stout. Currently looking at the low to mid teens here in the mountains with flow snow.

 Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. 

 Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Short but will be stout. Currently looking at the low to mid teens here in the mountains with flow snow.

Cold yes but really just two one day cold snaps and nowhere near as impressive as what’s been going on with this heatwave! We have set 3 record highs, 2 record high minimums already and tomorrow the point click has been upped to 89. We had 88.5 this afternoon here, which was nearly 6 degrees above the forecast and 7 above the RDU record! For the piedmont looks like Friday morning will be around freezing and one night around freezing and one night in the upper 20s next week before it warms up. Hardly a historic event, but a significant shock after this stretch of summer in early March. 
 

If RDU hits 90 tomorrow it will be exactly 2 months before average, as the average first 90 reading of the season is May 11…  RAH commented that this weather and heights are more typical of early July! 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cold yes but really just two one day cold snaps and nowhere near as impressive as what’s been going on with this heatwave! We have set 3 record highs, 2 record high minimums already and tomorrow the point click has been upped to 89. We had 88.5 this afternoon here, which was nearly 6 degrees above the forecast and 7 above the RDU record! For the piedmont looks like Friday morning will be around freezing and one night around freezing and one night in the upper 20s next week before it warms up. Hardly a historic event, but a significant shock after this stretch of summer in early March. 
 

If RDU hits 90 tomorrow it will be exactly 2 months before average, as the average first 90 reading of the season is May 11…  RAH commented that this weather and heights are more typical of early July! 

Yeah this heat wave is impressive.  What's going to be really impressive are going to be the 24 hour temp changes and next week even colder with the cold air.

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Cold yes but really just two one day cold snaps and nowhere near as impressive as what’s been going on with this heatwave! We have set 3 record highs, 2 record high minimums already and tomorrow the point click has been upped to 89. We had 88.5 this afternoon here, which was nearly 6 degrees above the forecast and 7 above the RDU record! For the piedmont looks like Friday morning will be around freezing and one night around freezing and one night in the upper 20s next week before it warms up. Hardly a historic event, but a significant shock after this stretch of summer in early March. 
 

If RDU hits 90 tomorrow it will be exactly 2 months before average, as the average first 90 reading of the season is May 11…  RAH commented that this weather and heights are more typical of early July! 

Let us hope this does not happen this summer! 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 hours ago, eyewall said:

Let us hope this does not happen this summer! 

If this pattern materializes in summer I’m worried the pavement will turn into molten magma

[calculus1]

I am seriously excited for when this all flips and we get cool and rainy in May and June. I’ll take 80s now, if it means I can trade them out for a cooler late spring and early summer. 80s now feels good compared to 80s in June and July with those crazy humidity levels. Don’t they call this Blackberry Spring or something? It’ll flip the other way in a few weeks, and it will be most welcome.


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