Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[Upstate Tiger]

Euro still has the event.  Just a little later and further east than the GFS.  Let's see the ensembles.  

[SnowDawg]

Step backwards from 6z on euro, no sugar coating it. Quite a bit more positive tilt and weaker. Given the base state towards positive tilt/dry systems it’s certainly a concern.

[buckeyefan1]

Baby steps in the right direction calls for patience grasshoppers. Here’s another friendly reminder to practice your breathing skills, take your meds, drink plenty of water and sleep well when you can 

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Euro still has the event.  Just a little later and further east than the GFS.  Let's see the ensembles.  

A lot of flying energy until we get some established blocking. Model chaos will continue 

[NorthHillsWx]

UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro was good for the E Carolinas and extra good from part of SE GA into the E FL panhandle. Of course I’d love for it to verify similarly in this area, but I’m still leaning to the 1/28-9/14 type of NW model trend like the 12Z GFS did due to similar indices to take most or all of it away. We’ll see as every case is somewhat unique:

[Brick Tamland]

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

UK was terrible. EURO was not great but it was mostly due to the energy being less consolidated than a bad trend with regards to placement, etc. think as someone else stated we’ve reached the stage of models jumping around. We’re still 4 days out our storms are never nailed down at this range. Watch those two closely we don’t want to separate into GFS vs the world 

Euro just needs to be amped a little more. Hope we will see it come in with more juice the next couple of days.

[WXNewton]

The 12z EPS and GEFS are pretty much identically overlaid on top of each other with the same amount of coverage, the subtle difference seems to be the overall strength and intensity of the storm more so than the track. So I think the question at this point is how does the storm evolve as far as strength and does the wave come out flat or does it become more neutral and neg tilt that will make the difference in accumulations. Confidence is there that we will see an area of low-pressure track across the Gulf, but how strong does it get?

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

The 12z EPS and GEFS are pretty much identically overlaid on top of each other with the same amount of coverage, the subtle difference seems to be the overall strength and intensity of the storm more so than the track. So I think the question at this point is how does the storm evolve as far as strength and does the wave come out flat or does it become more neutral and neg tilt that will make the difference in accumulations. Confidence is there that we will see an area of low-pressure track across the Gulf, but how strong does it get?

Central/East NC and SC are in a really good spot at this juncture

[olafminesaw]

AI GFS Ensembles 

[GaWx]

 Imho, it’s getting close to a good time for someone to start a 1/18/26 storm threat thread. Other opinions?

 12Z EPS mean looks very nice for many though of course many others won’t like as is almost always the case; regardless this shows there’s plenty of spread still:

 

12Z EPS members:

 

 

[BornAgain13]

12z Euro/EPS definitely not good up this way... the energy was to positive tilted. Hopefully 18z and 0z trend towards GFS.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Imho, it’s getting close to a good time for someone to start a 1/18/26 storm threat thread. Other opinions?

 12Z EPS mean:

 

12Z EPS members:

 

 

Looks like 10-15% support the GFS

[BornAgain13]

CMC Ensembles look decent for Sunday. 

[Upstate Tiger]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Imho, it’s getting close to a good time for someone to start a 1/18/26 storm threat thread. Other opinions?

 12Z EPS mean looks very nice for many though of course many others won’t like as is almost always the case; regardless this shows there’s plenty of spread still:

 

12Z EPS members:

 

 

Was hoping for better but this has a ways to go.  No sampling and we are mid-day Wednesday and this is a Sunday event.  

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Was hoping for better but this has a ways to go.  No sampling and we are mid-day Wednesday and this is a Sunday event.  

Mark it down, someone is going to get NAM'ed tomorrow! 

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Mark it down, someone is going to get NAM'ed tomorrow! 

I haven't been NAM'ed in about 4 years.  Would love to see it.

On side note, GSP AFD is not out yet.  I suspect those guys are bit busy with all that's transpiring over the next several days...mountain snow the next 24 hours, bitter cold, and weekend potential.  

EDIT: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[BornAgain13]

20 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Mark it down, someone is going to get NAM'ed tomorrow! 

I would rather get EURO'ED lol

[strongwxnc]

Mark it down, someone is going to get NAM'ed tomorrow! 

The thing about being NAM’ed is feast or famine. I can tell you one thing the closer to you are I’d live and die by the nam’s Thermo profiles!


.

[olafminesaw]

Just now, strongwxnc said:

The thing about being NAM’ed is feast or famine. I can tell you one thing the closer to you are I’d live and die by the nam’s Thermo profiles!


.

Ironically, unless all other models fold to the GFS, warm air aloft could be the savior of many with this system 

[wncsnow]

Good old GFS at least brought the board alive for a bit

[NorthHillsWx]

I think we can wait until tomorrow to start a storm thread. Until last night there really wasn’t much consensus on there even being a storm would like it to remain on models for a full day before jumping into a thread personally. There isn’t really anything else going on besides in the mountain forum so nothing would be confused with this discussion at this time 

[strongwxnc]

Good old GFS at least brought the board alive for a bit

Like the old days!


.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think we can wait until tomorrow to start a storm thread. Until last night there really wasn’t much consensus on there even being a storm would like it to remain on models for a full day before jumping into a thread personally. There isn’t really anything else going on besides in the mountain forum so nothing would be confused with this discussion at this time 

Thanks for your thoughts on this. For comparison, @eyewall started the 1/10-11/25 thread 4 days out and @Brick Tamlandstarted the 1/21-2/25 thread 3 days out. So, starting it tomorrow would match Brick’s timing for 1/21-2.

[olafminesaw]

FWIW the Euro AI looked better than the OP at 500 mb, while the GFS AI generally supports the OP GFS

[Brick Tamland]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for your thoughts on this. For comparison, @eyewall started the 1/10-11/25 thread 4 days out and @Brick Tamlandstarted the 1/21-2/25 thread 3 days out. So, starting it tomorrow would match Brick’s timing for 1/21-2.

I remember the models were pretty back and forth with solutions up until 24 hours out. The Euro was also the last to jump on board with the threat 3 days out.

[BornAgain13]

Honestly this could trend up or down at this point but with the Euro being on the lighter side, I would tread lightly with excitement. Hopefully good things come for 18z/0z. 

Its hard to believe models are this bad this close to a storm and we live in 2026. 

[SnowDawg]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Honestly this could trend up or down at this point but with the Euro being on the lighter side, I would tread lightly with excitement. Hopefully good things come for 18z/0z. 

Its hard to believe models are this bad this close to a storm and we live in 2026. 

Yep that’s where I’m at. I’d love to see things move towards a GFS solution but ultimately the same fail modes that caused the system moving in now to miss are still there. No blocking and no 50/50 means things are very progressive and flatter positive tilt is a serious risk.

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is looking pretty juicy.

[BornAgain13]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM is looking pretty juicy.

That was for Saturday in the Mnts. Our focus is Sunday