Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[wncsnow]

Last nights Op Euro was the coldest run in days 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

Followup:

0Z vs 12Z Chicago lowest min (F) Jan 6+:

Euro: -15 vs +22

EPS: +16 vs +22

GFS: +29 vs +30

GEFS: +25 vs +25

 So, whereas Euro suite is colder, GFS suite is unchanged

The reason for these Chi coldest of run posts is because of it being a source region since a lot of SE cold travels from that area. It’s extremely hard for the SE to get colder than Chi (outside of mtns) as the air traveling from there modifies as it comes SE and even more w/o snowcover.

Whereas the 0Z GFS suite stayed the same (quite mild) as the 12Z despite the Euro suite getting sig. colder post Jan 6th, the 6Z GFS suite did trend a notable amount colder even though it’s still mainly mild (normal lows upper teens) (ens means are the most important that far out) 

Coldest post Jan 6th of GFS/GEFS:

12Z +30/+25
0Z +29/+25
6Z +21/+21

[GaWx]

 As we look ahead to Jan, here’s the wrap for Dec MJO: the last 12 days (12/20-31), which covered the torch period, turned out to track in 7-6-4-3-5, not well predicted by the models and which is typically not a cold path and can easily be mild:
 

The coldest day of the month in the E US was during phase 8 and phase 8 overall was the typical cold. It never was able to get into 1 and instead took a detour across eventually to 5! Nothing even close to that had been predicted. Remember all of those endless ph 8 progs?

[BooneWX]

Better west coast ridging across the board last night. That made a world of difference on the outlook for cold on the east coast. Let’s see if we can keep the positive trends going. 

[Upstate Tiger]

12z Euro is a bit more interesting today and certainly colder after next week. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Deep Doom

[wncsnow]

Ensembles looking better again past day 10

[olafminesaw]

All three major indices favorable (albeit  near neutral mid-month), may be hard for models to resolve

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

The reason for these Chi coldest of run posts is because of it being a source region since a lot of SE cold travels from that area. It’s extremely hard for the SE to get colder than Chi (outside of mtns) as the air traveling from there modifies as it comes SE and even more w/o snowcover.

Whereas the 0Z GFS suite stayed the same (quite mild) as the 12Z despite the Euro suite getting sig. colder post Jan 6th, the 6Z GFS suite did trend a notable amount colder even though it’s still mainly mild (normal lows upper teens) (ens means are the most important that far out) 

Coldest post Jan 6th of GFS/GEFS:

12Z +30/+25
0Z +29/+25
6Z +21/+21

Coldest post Jan 6th at Chicago on GFS/GEFS thru today’s 12Z:

1/2 12Z +30/+25
1/3 0Z +29/+25
      6Z +21/+21
     12Z +22/+19

 

Same for Euro/EPS:

1/2 12Z +22/+22

1/3 0Z   -15/+16

1/3 12Z  +7/+17

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Coldest post Jan 6th at Chicago on GFS/GEFS thru today’s 12Z:

1/2 12Z +30/+25
1/3 0Z +29/+25
      6Z +21/+21
     12Z +22/+19

 

Same for Euro/EPS:

1/2 12Z +22/+22

1/3 0Z   -15/+16

1/3 12Z  +7/+17

Where are we for the MJO? Still stuck in the cod?

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Where are we for the MJO? Still stuck in the cod?

 

[GaWx]

 For those who are hoping for a cold Feb in the SE US, Eric Webb just a little while ago posted these increasingly positive takes:

“It’s really interesting to see that we have already pushed the Pacific mean state to something in between La Nina & a modoki/Central Pacific El Niño.

Notice the recurrent appearance of westerly wind anomalies over the Western Pacific (warm colors). 

Unlike most Nina winters that usually end up being very mild in February, seeing this change in the base state already occurring tells me that this winter has a few tricks up its sleeves.”

————

“Fwiw, I separated winters that preceded cool ENSO (cold neutral or Nina) >> El Niño transition by “cold” and “warm” Februarys on the East Coast and looked at their OLR/convective anomalies in the Tropical Pacific

IMHO, given how much the Warm Pool has already advanced eastward, this year is leaning towards the “cold” February group with more convective activity or -OLR anomalies (cool colors) over the tropical West Pacific and tropical North Pacific, with a slightly weaker and eastward shifted area of +OLRa (decreased cloudiness, warm colors) near the International Dateline.”

—————

“IMHO, we have opened the door to the possibility of 2014 style Feb this year with how the low frequency state is evolving in the Pacific.”

[GaWx]

Coldest Jan 7th+ for Chicago lows on GEFS runs thru today’s 18Z:

1/2 12Z +25
1/3 0Z +25
6Z +21
12Z +19
18Z +15

 So, the GEFS mean coldest low at Chicago on the 18Z is a whopping 10 F colder than it was just 18 hours ago and is actually now slightly colder than the 12Z EPS’ 17. The normal Chicago low is for then ~18. So, the source for potential cold in the SE has gotten sig. colder. That’s the point of following and posting these.

 This colder 18Z run was largely related to a stronger -WPO, -EPO, and -AO vs the 12Z.

[NorthHillsWx]

One word describes short, medium, and long range: Dry

[yotaman]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One word describes short, medium, and long range: Dry

Unfortunately, mild too. I wish all the cold air in Alaska would come for a visit.

[wncsnow]

It looks to get to near normal at least next week

[BornAgain13]

These models are horrible. 0z Euro showed mild air in 10 days +. 12z EURO shows cold air now lol

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It looks to get to near normal at least next week

I’m looking forward to a NN averaged week next week which should include some BN (assuming it verifies), with its largely Canadian airmass influenced chilliness…great for walking…always welcomed! The upcoming mid-week to weekend of semi-torching to torching won’t be too fun for that .

[Met1985]

5 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

These models are horrible. 0z Euro showed mild air in 10 days +. 12z EURO shows cold air now lol

Been like this most of the season. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Overnight runs of the ops models were not bad.  At least some potential as we get into mid late next week.  Cold certainly making a deep run into the US after mid month.

[wncsnow]

That energy diving down Sunday/Monday needs to be watched, especially for eastern folks. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not sure we make it to our mid 50s forecast high. Currently stuck at 38 with thick overcast 

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Not sure we make it to our mid 50s forecast high. Currently stuck at 38 with thick overcast 

CAD for the win.

[NorthHillsWx]

12z GFS tried to get some southern stream energy involved towards the end of the run a couple times. Decent look, I’ll take anything showing moisture

[BooneWX]

We gotta start seeing some fantasy runs soon. I always feel like they’re an indicator of how good/bad the pattern may be. 

[wncsnow]

Long Range starting to look more interesting 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Long Range starting to look more interesting 

Snow in Arkansas, Tenn, Miss and Alabama? Book it. They have been on a Mountain West heater these past few years with storms. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Out to 330 but overall the Euro is much dryer than the GFS up to this point

[BooneWX]

Now that our ensembles are in, I like the look we seem to be developing. I still hope we start seeing fantasy storms soon but we’ll have quite the cold pool setting up to our north with blocking in place to deliver CAD. Now can we throw moisture into it?