Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Thats a top 10 snowy month of the past 50 years here.  

We had just done a thinning at our family  tree farm in Vance county and that ice storm wiped out most of the pines. Was devastating for the tree rotation ended up having to do a salvage cut and start over, 20 years in the hole 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Jimbo!]

Is that in addition to the
storm?


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GFS

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[kvegas-wx]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Weenie wishcasting.  We were torching into January just two weeks ago with winter cancel posts abounding.  45-day trends are honestly worthless at this point.  Eye candy, sure.  But lets come back to this on Valentines Day and see how this validates.  This whole winter so far has been forecasted extreme swings that seem to validate for 36-48 hours and then right back to more moderate seasonal weather.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[cbmclean]

36 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I'm all for it, but I think to get meaningful cold in the SE that AK trough needs to exit stage left

[wncsnow]

GFS continues to rain on the sustained cold parade. It is finding new and creative ways to destroy the block

 

And now the Euro looks more like the bad GFS runs. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Horrific trends overnight on models and ensembles. Blocking lost and thoughts of west coast ridging replaced with west coast trough. Going to be an interesting day to see where we go from here or if this was more than a blip 

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro caved to GFS- east coast trough replaced with a ridge and blocking evaporates. Ugly ugly ugly 

[BooneWX]

Sheesh. That was the worst overnight suite in a long time. Let’s see what 12z brings. Idk if I’ve ever seen the run to run changes we have lately. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now 

[Met1985]

How's the 10th through the 20th looking fellas?

[WiseWeather]

How's the 10th through the 20th looking fellas?

.

[BooneWX]

It could be right but we had one bad suite. For now it’s a blip not a trend. 

[BooneWX]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now 

Fab Feb your table is ready

[NorthHillsWx]

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Looks like 4th and 7, need to punt.  Maybe the offense can matriculate down the field a bit more once we establish a solid - EPO in about 10-12 days.

[wncsnow]

It can be an infuriating hobby, especially if you love snow. 1 winter storm in the past 6 winters is tough to endure. At least the ski resorts are going to make up for a lot of lost revenue

[Upstate Tiger]

43 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

Looks like 4th and 7, need to punt.  Maybe the offense can matriculate down the field a bit more once we establish a solid - EPO in about 10-12 days.

Overnight runs remind me of our bowl game.  Lots of hope and excitement dashed by the reality that we suck.  

[BooneWX]

Bam has a good pull you away from the cliff update on YouTube this morning

[BornAgain13]

Let's see what 12z says before everyone gives up lol

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Let's see what 12z says before everyone gives up lol

No one should be giving up. These are the same trash models that said it would be 75 today. 

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

No one should be giving up. These are the same trash models that said it would be 75 today. 

I’m not giving up but I never thought the front end was going to produce there just hadnt been a strong storm signal. It seemed DOA to me even if cold was available. We need to keep blocking for mid to late month and pray PNA actually goes positive which is questionable now 

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m not giving up but I never thought the front end was going to produce there just hadnt been a strong storm signal. It seemed DOA to me even if cold was available. We need to keep blocking for mid to late month and pray PNA actually goes positive which is questionable now 

Yeah, even if PNA developed as advertised yesterday, there is usually a lag before we see impacts. Now that too is in question.

 

Anyone know how PNA works together with Enso? I would think they would be interrelated. 

[wncsnow]

12Z is not off to a good start 

[NorthHillsWx]

Someone posted this on another forum so I’m not standing by it as factual but there’s a likelihood this month finishes with the most -NAO monthly value since 2010. To show for that most areas are going to finish NN to slightly BN for temps and below normal for snowfall. And during this period much of the south also one of their if not their hottest December stretch in history. To me this speaks volumes, blocking is AWESOME but with an uncooperative pacific you’re just not going to win. Everyone always gets excited when NAO tanks but as long as Alaska is frozen and that Aleutian high won’t budge, dislodging the pacific trough is going to be tough and you’re going to end up with exactly what we got

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

12Z is not off to a good start 

Nope. I think a lot of Mets who broke and honked the big storm horn for that 4-11 timeframe are going to be looking for excuses. This has become a punt like we saw 2019-21 where the pattern change keeps getting delayed and then even those drinking hopium look up and it’s March. I’m trying not to be pessimistic but when you’re pointing to indices and analogs and trying to pull something that will happen IF this ridge moves or that so and so and it’s all 2 weeks down the road with models showing nothing positive and it’s January, you’re in a bad spot. We should be seeing fantasy storms and we’re not. It’s not even getting us fantasy rains. 

[NorthHillsWx]

12z GFS drops a total of 0.00” QPF on RDU through January 9