Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Thats a top 10 snowy month of the past 50 years here.  

We had just done a thinning at our family  tree farm in Vance county and that ice storm wiped out most of the pines. Was devastating for the tree rotation ended up having to do a salvage cut and start over, 20 years in the hole 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Jimbo!]

Is that in addition to the
storm?


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GFS

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[kvegas-wx]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Weenie wishcasting.  We were torching into January just two weeks ago with winter cancel posts abounding.  45-day trends are honestly worthless at this point.  Eye candy, sure.  But lets come back to this on Valentines Day and see how this validates.  This whole winter so far has been forecasted extreme swings that seem to validate for 36-48 hours and then right back to more moderate seasonal weather.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[cbmclean]

36 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I'm all for it, but I think to get meaningful cold in the SE that AK trough needs to exit stage left

[wncsnow]

GFS continues to rain on the sustained cold parade. It is finding new and creative ways to destroy the block

 

And now the Euro looks more like the bad GFS runs. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Horrific trends overnight on models and ensembles. Blocking lost and thoughts of west coast ridging replaced with west coast trough. Going to be an interesting day to see where we go from here or if this was more than a blip 

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro caved to GFS- east coast trough replaced with a ridge and blocking evaporates. Ugly ugly ugly 

[BooneWX]

Sheesh. That was the worst overnight suite in a long time. Let’s see what 12z brings. Idk if I’ve ever seen the run to run changes we have lately. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now 

[Met1985]

How's the 10th through the 20th looking fellas?

[WiseWeather]

How's the 10th through the 20th looking fellas?

.

[BooneWX]

It could be right but we had one bad suite. For now it’s a blip not a trend. 

[BooneWX]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think that Jan 8-11 period is cooked. We cannot lose the mid-late month cold. We are punting prime climo now 

Fab Feb your table is ready

[NorthHillsWx]

My concern with the 8-10th period has been and will continue to be the lack of solutions showing storms. The means regressed significantly last night and even those had been driven by a couple members with a big storm vs a lot of members showing something or something close. It just hasn’t gathered much modeling support and in the 10-day timeframe you’d really want to at least start seeing ensemble support for a valid threat 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Looks like 4th and 7, need to punt.  Maybe the offense can matriculate down the field a bit more once we establish a solid - EPO in about 10-12 days.