January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

But there seems to be more of a “connection” with the energy over nova scotia, which may not be what we want. But it could be nothing 

Ah yes, didn't even notice that.  Hopefully it won't f*ck things up

[Yeoman]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think it's technically NoVA for the most part...I mean Bob abandoned us all to the southern corner of VA  but other than that...yeah NOVA. 

Norfolk is part of Northern VA as much as it sits on the Pacific Ocean.

[stormtracker]

I dunno

[Bob Chill]

Aigfs sucked at 12z but 18z is a drastic improvement 

[LordBaltimore]

2 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Norfolk is part of Northern VA as much as it sits on the Pacific Ocean.

if you drive 5 miles south of Norfolk to the Great Dismal Swamp you can see alligators in the summer. Sorry for banter

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I dunno

Not sure its gonna do it this time, but we’re looking for a step in the right direction. Not sure yet

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Not sure its gonna do it this time, but we’re looking for a step in the right direction. Not sure yet

I thought out west improved slightly

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Aigfs sucked at 12z but 18z is a drastic improvement 

For me the big thing is keep seeing that NS wave digging south of us and amplifying. If that’s true we have ways to win that don’t require unusual and unlikely model adjustments.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure its gonna do it this time, but we’re looking for a step in the right direction. Not sure yet

I believe so from what I'm seeing now.   

[stormtracker]

Down to our southwest, Not as flat in front as it was at 12z so far on the SFC maps.  Waiting for the H5 maps to catch up

[Terpeast]

On 87, i like the ns wave better

[stormtracker]

Yeah, H5 is noticeably better, still can't say what this means down the line tho

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

On 87, i like the ns wave better

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

 

Taller pna ridge, heights off the EC a bit heigher

[psuhoffman]

Through 90 it’s better. Might not do it but it’s heading the right way 

[stormtracker]

Seems better on paper, but not seeing downstream results that we need so far

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Taller pna ridge, heights off the EC a bit heigher

The ridge is slightly better oriented imo. It’s getting closer to what we want to see 

[Amped]

Not splitting the 500mb energy as fast as the cmc and euro.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Seems better on paper, but not seeing downstream results that we need so far

Yea I switch from h5 to surface and I don’t see what I expect  

[Terpeast]

Trying to close off at 117

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Through 90 it’s better. Might not do it but it’s heading the right way 

GFS not even closing off a low at H5 anymore....well so far

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Amped said:

Not splitting the 500mb energy as fast as the cmc and euro.

So frustrating it trended better in several ways but worse in the one that might matter most. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Trying to close off at 117

GFS gotta move quicker

[Terpeast]

Now i’m liking 12z better

[stormtracker]

Still won't close at 120

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Now i’m liking 12z better

Yup, was getting better and the starting going backwards.  Oh well

[stormtracker]

FInally closes off at 123

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup, was getting better and the starting going backwards.  Oh well

Needed to split that energy between midwest and nova scotia sooner

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS gotta move quicker

Now where have we heard THAT before....oh yeah just a week ago! Took it's sweet old time with Baja vort while every other models with some sense ejected much quicker, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

.