stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 We can count this as a positive run. We got a storm in the vicinity at least 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Nomz said: yeah looks like more of a NE event if anything. Looks like it's trying to curl in toward them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Surprised GFS isn't bombing this thing out more the 500mb isos are insane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 PNA isn’t ideal. It’s all too flat. OTS is the most likely outcome unless models start to amp things out west over the coming days. That 18z euro had a shit load of things go right to have a coastal where it did. Threaded about 3 needles. We shall see. Certainly some better trends today but still a long way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Boston gets a lil tickle tho. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Huh? Pay attention Maestro! Bf. Ohhh now it's coming back to me! My bad, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, 87storms said: I would say that getting thermals right is pretty important Hey, if you think getting a p-type changeover right by a couple hours over another model is more important than being so bad you got literally every other part of the storm comically wrong - including the total precip off by a genuinely hilarious amount, then sure, dry hump that NAM all day. That is absolutely your prerogative. Doesn’t make any sense, really, but you can obviously think whatever you want. But if you try and gaslight others about how great the NAM was, you should probably continue to expect to get laughed at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 CMC has the players..but prob gonna come together too far east for east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 again, given seasonal trends, this is not a bad place to be. but I'm also closer to the coast and I do well in Nina coastal scrapers... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, stormtracker said: CMC has the players..but prob gonna come together too far east for east Seems to be the theme. I’m kind of encouraged that most models are at least showing the pieces back on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, stormtracker said: CMC has the players..but prob gonna come together too far east for east It's better than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Yeah, that H5 map on the CMC is intriguing as hell. And again, in the vicinity and we got some time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that H5 map on the CMC is intriguing as hell. And again, in the vicinity and we got some time Yea, pops a coastal and it'll be a valiant attempt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Hold on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 WTF is that CMC it's a non-moving 975 low jesus christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Gonna miss but damn 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, bncho said: WTF is that CMC it's a non-moving 975 low jesus christ 967 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 that's like 1993 level low pressure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Gonna miss but damn congrats OBX.. but seriously, holy crap that's a beast, and it is so, very. close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 967 How much for Kitty Hawk? 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 CMC with historic blizzard for eastern nc…. Love where this is at this point living in northern neck. Someone said this earlier but this has Jan 25, 2000 written all over it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Ukie also has the idea (not quite a hit but improved) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 This is a tough setup to get to come up the coast. Need an initial disturbance in the Gulf, or the baroclinic zone further north, or the high to move offshore and generate a return flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 (I found this analysis on SouthernWX. @Terpeast @MillvilleWx @psuhoffman, any other mets, any thoughts about this?) "Just using the GFS for reference, I can go ahead and tell you this piece of energy that dives in out of the NW is going to be a lot faster than currently modeled. So that’s probably going to collide early with our southern stream wave which will cause more amplification. And let’s also assume our 50/50 will be scooting out quicker than modeled. Good chance this system is amplified and not nearly as suppressed and late as currently modeled. It’s virtually the same playbook again this weekend just happening a skosh further east with less chance to cutA non zero shot at a triple phaser as well" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Definitely liking the changes from what we had all season. Southern stream waking up and being a bigger player is definitely more fun. Not saying we will cash in, but interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 will say watching that NS pivot is insane and i know we're all burned by these late phasers, but you can't not like that NS practically pivoting around itself and swinging up. i like what im seeing. and considering how our NS for this storm decided to buckle a calm three states west, i'm not too worried about getting this storm to buckle as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 @bnchoisn't that similar to what happened with this weekends storm? the NS ended up phasing in faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, AlexD1990 said: @bnchoisn't that similar to what happened with this weekends storm? the NS ended up phasing in faster Yes exactly. We were initially rooting for a phase out west quick but then it became too quick and too far west. I wouldn't have brought that analysis up here if I didnt think it had merit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Let’s see what euro / euro ai have to say. We are at D6 after all. Not far from euros wheelhouse and the AI does pretty well at this range. LONG way to go, but it’ll be pretty encouraging if the euro holds its 18z idea generally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts