January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[stormtracker]

We can count this as a positive run.  We got a storm in the vicinity at least

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

yeah looks like more of a NE event if anything.

Looks like it's trying to curl in toward them

[Nomz]

Surprised GFS isn't bombing this thing out more the 500mb isos are insane

[jayyy]

PNA isn’t ideal. It’s all too flat. OTS is the most likely outcome unless models start to amp things out west over the coming days. That 18z euro had a shit load of things go right to have a coastal where it did. Threaded about 3 needles. We shall see. Certainly some better trends today but still a long way to go.

[stormtracker]

Boston gets a lil tickle tho.  Yay

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Huh? Pay attention Maestro!  Bf.

Ohhh now it's coming back to me! My bad, lol

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I would say that getting thermals right is pretty important

Hey, if you think getting a p-type changeover right by a couple hours over another model is more important than being so bad you got literally every other part of the storm comically wrong - including the total precip off by a genuinely hilarious amount, then sure, dry hump that NAM all day. That is absolutely your prerogative. Doesn’t make any sense, really, but you can obviously think whatever you want. 
 

But if you try and gaslight others about how great the NAM was, you should probably continue to expect to get laughed at. 

[stormtracker]

CMC has the players..but prob gonna come together too far east for east

[AlexD1990]

again, given seasonal trends, this is not a bad place to be.

 

 

but I'm also closer to the coast and I do well in Nina coastal scrapers...

[TowsonWeather]

Just now, stormtracker said:

CMC has the players..but prob gonna come together too far east for east

Seems to be the theme. I’m kind of encouraged that most models are at least showing the pieces back on the table.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

CMC has the players..but prob gonna come together too far east for east

It's better than 12z.

[stormtracker]

Yeah, that H5 map on the CMC is intriguing as hell.  And again, in the vicinity and we got some time

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that H5 map on the CMC is intriguing as hell.  And again, in the vicinity and we got some time

Yea, pops a coastal and it'll be a valiant attempt

[stormtracker]

Hold on...

[stormtracker]

[bncho]

WTF is that CMC it's a non-moving 975 low jesus christ

[stormtracker]

Gonna miss but damn

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

WTF is that CMC it's a non-moving 975 low jesus christ

967

[bncho]

that's like 1993 level low pressure

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gonna miss but damn

congrats OBX..

 

but seriously, holy crap that's a beast, and it is so, very. close.

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

967

How much for Kitty Hawk?

[Shad]

CMC with historic blizzard for eastern nc…. Love where this is at this point living in northern neck. Someone said this earlier but this has Jan 25, 2000 written all over it


.

[Maestrobjwa]

Ukie also has the idea (not quite a hit but improved)

[Amped]

This is a tough setup to get to come up the coast.

Need an initial disturbance in the Gulf, or the baroclinic zone further north, or the high to move offshore and generate a return flow.

[bncho]

(I found this analysis on SouthernWX. @Terpeast @MillvilleWx @psuhoffman, any other mets, any thoughts about this?)

"Just using the GFS for reference, I can go ahead and tell you this piece of energy that dives in out of the NW is going to be a lot faster than currently modeled. So that’s probably going to collide early with our southern stream wave which will cause more amplification. And let’s also assume our 50/50 will be scooting out quicker than modeled. Good chance this system is amplified and not nearly as suppressed and late as currently modeled. It’s virtually the same playbook again this weekend just happening a skosh further east with less chance to cut

A non zero shot at a triple phaser as well"

[midatlanticweather]

Definitely liking the changes from what we had all season. Southern stream waking up and being a bigger player is definitely more fun. Not saying we will cash in, but interesting 

[AtlanticWx]

will say watching that NS pivot is insane and i know we're all burned by these late phasers, but you can't not like that NS practically pivoting around itself and swinging up. i like what im seeing. and considering how our NS for this storm decided to buckle a calm three states west, i'm not too worried about getting this storm to buckle as well

[AlexD1990]

@bnchoisn't that similar to what happened with this weekends storm? the NS ended up phasing in faster

[bncho]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

@bnchoisn't that similar to what happened with this weekends storm? the NS ended up phasing in faster

Yes exactly. We were initially rooting for a phase out west quick but then it became too quick and too far west.

I wouldn't have brought that analysis up here if I didnt think it had merit. 

 

[jayyy]

Let’s see what euro / euro ai have to say. We are at D6 after all. Not far from euros wheelhouse and the AI does pretty well at this range. LONG way to go, but it’ll be pretty encouraging if the euro holds its 18z idea generally