bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GFS AI is going to be less icy.. otherwise IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 GFS AI is gonna be a lot colder for us this goGetting whalloped at 138 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 AIGFS looks fine, if not better. Shouldn't cut as much, if at all. That favors less crappy mixed precip. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Where is randy? GFS thru 96 little farther east with the Baja ull and confluence nudge northern. Sould be a bit.less suppressed, not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Getting whalloped at 138 Pics or it didn't happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 AI GFS more breathing room, no ice issues whatsoever. Good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 AI slight bump.to gfs and vice versa. Getting in the middle perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, stormtracker said: Pics or it didn't happen No mixing in sight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Where is randy? GFS thru 96 little farther east with the Baja ull and confluence nudge northern. Sould be a bit.less suppressed, not surprising I'm here Amigo. Just don't see anything super noteworthy to report. Trying to cut down on the cross pbps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 That was a bigger bump S.on the AI than I thought. This one has it sights set on the MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The AI-GFS is like 8-12" of snow for us with no mixing issues whatsoever. Hell yeah baby. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Physics based GFS has the SW a bit more east and less confluence in front. Generally seems to moving in the right direction but need to see what happens in the next 20 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, bncho said: The AI-GFS is like 8-12" of snow for us with no mixing issues whatsoever. Hell yeah baby. The resident UVA poster approves of this change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Wasn’t a clean phase. AIGFS could’ve smoked us even more. Love where we stand right now. Could always change my mind in an hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 SFC wise, GFS is about the same vs 6z so far...but does look just a tiny bit less suppressed 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Wasn’t a clean phase. AIGFS could’ve smoked us even more. Love where we stand right now. Could always change my mind in an hour What got in the way of a clean phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: What got in the way of a clean phase? Would defer to someone else to make sure I’m not crazy. I think phases are largely just timing based and this was a bit out of sync. Out of sync and 8-12” is ok with me though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, stormtracker said: Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out We don't have the same piece of NS coming down to help lift it out of the SW that the Euro has. I doubt we get a similar evolution to our big hits though an improvement from its own baseline is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Suppression is the greatest concern for this storm. I don’t see any possibility of it cutting. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this ends up a lower mid-Atlantic simply because of the overpowering NS for what seems like years at this point. My hope is that we get enough of a nudge north up to gametime to get in on a few inches here…though I absolutely do not expect to be in the bullseye on this with the way the southern stream wave gets sheared out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Baja low a little more east but can't tell if it's gonna do the sit and spin or move out Every run it shifts more east the better chance it gets pushed out so that’s a good trend right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: No mixing in sight It's absolutely beautiful. CAD Signature all the way to interior South Carolina, moisture laden storm, banana high from Quebec down to Texas. This is perfect. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, TSSN+ said: Every run it shifts more east the better chance it gets pushed out so that’s a good trend right there. It's definitely and noticeable more easter than 6z....it's a better look..BUT PLEASE nobody get excited, lol...I'm not implying anything great here...yet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Next 20 hours determines if the GFS can pull through. The SW is so close to ejecting east and we need the bit of energy north of it to help it instead of cut it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Regardless of what happens (and we still could get skunked), this is an improved run 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: You’d be surprised how quickly this can all trend north and we end up with cold rain. Perhaps the precip shield, but I'd be comfortable locking in this cold. I mean most models have almost a week of single-digit lows; you could have models swing +15 degrees and it would still wouldn't even be "marginal" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Maybe I shouldn’t say this but in a side Twitter group chat Tomer Berg just called this a mix of Jonas (2016) and Feb 2010. 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's absolutely beautiful. CAD Signature all the way to interior South Carolina, moisture laden storm, banana high from Quebec down to Texas. This is perfect. Yep cold smoke. Especially for the NW crew. Might not get the max precip stripe. But we get the powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's absolutely beautiful. CAD Signature all the way to interior South Carolina, moisture laden storm, banana high from Quebec down to Texas. This is perfect. Agreed. 12z is congrats to this sub and even part of the SE. Steady as she goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Next 20 hours determines if the GFS can pull through. The SW is so close to ejecting east and we need the bit of energy north of it to help it instead of cut it off We are SO CLOSE. Regardless of what happens this run has been a major improvement over 6z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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