January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

FWIW, 12z GEFS trended better for everyone. A lot of the complete whiffs or OTS misses are fading. Looking more likely that we get some kind of accumulating frozen from this first event.

[mitchnick]

Fyi, GfsAI has fairly similar snowfall to regular Gfs from what I can tell by piecing 6hr precip maps with 850 temps. Very rudimentary, of course, but close enough to get close to what it's showing for snowfall. 

[mitchnick]

Ukie not updating on Pivotal and only partial info on other sites. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie not updating on Pivotal and only partial info on other sites. 

Euro out here in a few so we wait 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie not updating on Pivotal and only partial info on other sites. 

That always happens when it shows 6” for us. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Euro out here in a few so we wait 

AI is basically a miss with maybe 1/2" for us and little or nothing around metros.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

AI is basically a miss with maybe 1/2" for us and little or nothing around metros.

Idc about the ai lol that model sucks 

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro has the main ball of vorticity at the same latitude but a little further East owing to a greater separation of southern and northern energy

[MN Transplant]

Not sure if this has been covered yet, but with the snow more attached to the 500 low, the temps aloft are cold enough to put us in favorable ratio territory on the GFS.  So, yes, we'd like more precip, but this could be fluffier than normal.

[SnowenOutThere]

Pops a low over MD

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Idc about the ai lol that model sucks 

It should be snowing pretty good in a few minutes here. Won't last, of course.

[SnowenOutThere]

Heres vorticity at 108 which is generally further north than its 6z counterpart. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Has a weird surface low progression of forming over MD moving to off to the tip of long island and then reforming over southern New Jersey. Not sure if that plays out good or bad for us. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Pops a low over MD

Normally a low over Baltimore is no bueno for us but since this guy is moving basically due east perhaps can still work. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Has a weird surface low progression of forming over MD moving to off to the tip of long island and then reforming over southern New Jersey. Not sure if that plays out good or bad for us. 

Gfs sort of did that on yesterday's 12z run. Had it in PA, then reformed in VA.

[87storms]

The next weekend thing looks like it has more potential with what seems to be better moisture return from the gulf. Trusting a moisture-starved system without having cold air locked in prior is risky business. We’re better at cold air chasing anafrontal systems, right?

[SnowenOutThere]

Precip total from the event

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It should be snowing pretty good in a few minutes here. Won't last, of course.

It’s 44 it’s probably rain 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Precip total from the event

After looking at temps I'm guessing that maybe .2ish of that is snow

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Precip total from the event

Um hope that’s some snow lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s 44 it’s probably rain 

Really impressive snow virga to our immediate west and nw. I think it's cold just above the deck.

[SnowenOutThere]

Cape storm is weird too on the Euro. Doesn't seem to really get anything to happen due to extremely poor wave spacing and no gulf moisture. 

[stormtracker]

According to SV, looks like 3 to 5 ish

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Um hope that’s some snow lol

it is

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

According to SV, looks like 3 to 5 ish

Wow! Buy, buy, buy!

[Terpeast]

We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north. 

[TSSN+]

Sold

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Wow! Buy, buy, buy!

 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Terpeast said:

We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north. 

It always stays completely locked in for a week, i wouldn’t worry at all. 

[mitchnick]

Snowing here now. Storm started early!