Eskimo Joe Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 FWIW, 12z GEFS trended better for everyone. A lot of the complete whiffs or OTS misses are fading. Looking more likely that we get some kind of accumulating frozen from this first event. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Fyi, GfsAI has fairly similar snowfall to regular Gfs from what I can tell by piecing 6hr precip maps with 850 temps. Very rudimentary, of course, but close enough to get close to what it's showing for snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ukie not updating on Pivotal and only partial info on other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie not updating on Pivotal and only partial info on other sites. Euro out here in a few so we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie not updating on Pivotal and only partial info on other sites. That always happens when it shows 6” for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, TSSN+ said: Euro out here in a few so we wait AI is basically a miss with maybe 1/2" for us and little or nothing around metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: AI is basically a miss with maybe 1/2" for us and little or nothing around metros. Idc about the ai lol that model sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Euro has the main ball of vorticity at the same latitude but a little further East owing to a greater separation of southern and northern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Not sure if this has been covered yet, but with the snow more attached to the 500 low, the temps aloft are cold enough to put us in favorable ratio territory on the GFS. So, yes, we'd like more precip, but this could be fluffier than normal. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Pops a low over MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Idc about the ai lol that model sucks It should be snowing pretty good in a few minutes here. Won't last, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Heres vorticity at 108 which is generally further north than its 6z counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Has a weird surface low progression of forming over MD moving to off to the tip of long island and then reforming over southern New Jersey. Not sure if that plays out good or bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Pops a low over MD Normally a low over Baltimore is no bueno for us but since this guy is moving basically due east perhaps can still work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Has a weird surface low progression of forming over MD moving to off to the tip of long island and then reforming over southern New Jersey. Not sure if that plays out good or bad for us. Gfs sort of did that on yesterday's 12z run. Had it in PA, then reformed in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The next weekend thing looks like it has more potential with what seems to be better moisture return from the gulf. Trusting a moisture-starved system without having cold air locked in prior is risky business. We’re better at cold air chasing anafrontal systems, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Precip total from the event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It should be snowing pretty good in a few minutes here. Won't last, of course. It’s 44 it’s probably rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Precip total from the event After looking at temps I'm guessing that maybe .2ish of that is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Precip total from the event Um hope that’s some snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, TSSN+ said: It’s 44 it’s probably rain Really impressive snow virga to our immediate west and nw. I think it's cold just above the deck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Cape storm is weird too on the Euro. Doesn't seem to really get anything to happen due to extremely poor wave spacing and no gulf moisture. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 According to SV, looks like 3 to 5 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Um hope that’s some snow lol it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: According to SV, looks like 3 to 5 ish Wow! Buy, buy, buy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Sold 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Wow! Buy, buy, buy! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Terpeast said: We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north. It always stays completely locked in for a week, i wouldn’t worry at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Snowing here now. Storm started early! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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