January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

I don't dislike how the Nam looks at the end of the run. Just sayin'.

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't dislike how the Nam looks at the end of the run. Just sayin'.

Gettin’ diggy with it

[LeesburgWx]

NAM @ 84 hours better or worse than ICON at any hour??

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

NAM @ 84 hours better or worse than ICON at any hour??

Of course it's sketchy at best, but it's better than showing something crappy.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

NAM @ 84 hours better or worse than ICON at any hour??

The fact we are comparing the hour 84 NAM to Icon really makes me think we’re insane 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

The fact we are comparing the hour 84 NAM to Icon really makes me think we’re insane 

It took THAT for you to realize we're insane?? 

[mitchnick]

On a related note, I  don’t know who these people are, but it just showed up on my YouTube feed. Haven't even listened to it, but the title alone gives me joy.

 

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't dislike how the Nam looks at the end of the run. Just sayin'.

It must be decent because Chuck didn’t post it 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The fact we are comparing the hour 84 NAM to Icon really makes me think we’re insane 

You do know the line between sane and insane is fine.

[benjammin]

The ratio of time and energy spent to enjoyment for this hobby must be one of the worst available. 

[Imgoinhungry]

What is the over/under on the amount of digital snow DC metro loses per season?


.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, benjammin said:

The ratio of time and energy spent to enjoyment for this hobby must be one of the worst available. 

Hobby? Who would choose this as a hobby? This is a mental illness that most of us were born with lol

[baltosquid]

RGEM obviously wouldn't work out but it did trend to the NS diving down more SW. Can't believe we're already at "extrapolate the mesoscales" for this lol.\

Edit: Also the RRFS A digs more thru 64hrs. But my read on that model so far is... not good? Am I imagining that?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You do know the line between sane and insane is fine.

[Scraff]

My contribution for today. Not many changes at hr 30 on the 12z GFS. 

[baltosquid]

DESI has the HGEFS which if I remember correctly is NOAA's ensemble that includes both AI and deterministic members. Made an entirely too official looking graphic using the interface. Really puts it nicely: The temps at the surface should work with the kind of h5 pass we see at the moment. There is a coastal signal on the MSLP mean. But the precipitation is just so weak. For this, the best 6hr frame of precip, and a likely cooperative temperature profile, just a 1 in 3 chance of getting >0.1in or >1 inch of snow assuming 10:1 which may well be an overshoot if we lose some to changeover. Need moisture!!

[bncho]

I mean, I don't know what h5 we need at this point, but it looks like so far 12z is an improvement from the last three GFS runs, at hour 75

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

I mean, I don't know what h5 we need at this point, but it looks like 12z is an improvement from the last three GFS runs.

It is, but who knows what happens 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I mean, I don't know what h5 we need at this point, but it looks like so far 12z is an improvement from the last three GFS runs, at hour 75

Diving a smidge more and higher heights in front. Also the energy just north of Maine in this run was more around the NY/NH/Canada border, so hopefully more room to operate.

[stormtracker]

Haven't checked the 6z.but GFS trofs seems a lil too positively tilted so far

[stormtracker]

Snowing at 102 then sfc fz crashing and snow for most at 105.  Light tho

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Haven't checked the 6z.but GFS trofs seems a lil too positively tilted so far

There just isnt ample wave spacing to allow this to go negative at the longitude we need. Eta: for the former MECS solutions anyway

[bncho]

It's a better run than the last 3 GFS runs

[Solution Man]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

There just isnt ample wave spacing to allow this to go negative at the longitude we need. 

Much better than 06z

[bncho]

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Much better than 06z

Better, yes. Ideal, nope.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

There just isnt ample wave spacing to allow this to go negative at the longitude we need. Eta: for the former MECS solutions anyway

Yeah, it looks pretty progressive.  but it's a decent small hit like 3 to 5 ish

[bncho]

DC gets to 6"

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Better, yes. Ideal, nope.

It's a nice lil event

[bncho]

DC jackzone