January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Looking over that 6z run of euro that northern piece of energy diving in and phasing would be amazing if times up right. Hope trend continues on 12z and it dives in to meet the southern piece of energy and phases and turns the corner. 
 

 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Looking over that 6z run of euro that northern piece of energy diving in and phasing would be amazing if times up right. Hope trend continues on 12z and it dives in to meet the southern piece of energy and phases and turns the corner. 
 

 

Someone would get hit pretty decent if it the Euro ran a little longer.

[baltosquid]

Just now, bncho said:

Someone would get hit pretty decent if it the Euro ran a little longer.

Yeah probably not us and more north east but that new diving feature still has a ways to go in terms of resolution, if it sticks around. Definitely could up the ante if it interacts positively.

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, bncho said:

this is the most accurate thing ever lol

but 95% of people here have no idea what sybau means lol

Being in my 50s, I am blessed to have 2 teenagers that keep me young and 'in the loop'. Last legit storm we got Dec 13-14 here they asked me how much I was looking at. I said 6, maybe 7 and they did some juggling motion and started repeating six, sevennnn. So, um, yeah I 'blessed' 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Looking over that 6z run of euro that northern piece of energy diving in and phasing would be amazing if times up right. Hope trend continues on 12z and it dives in to meet the southern piece of energy and phases and turns the corner. 
 

 

And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

Someone would get hit pretty decent if it the Euro ran a little longer.

I thought the ICON was loading up too at the end of 6z, but what do I know.

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.

Baby steps. 

[baltosquid]

Not a bad trend for that diving piece. Though I could not get 18z since it does not go far enough. In the interest of transparency, I think the organization of the whole thing was worse there. But 00z and 06z definitely nice trends away from that.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Being in my 50s, I am blessed to have 2 teenagers that keep me young and 'in the loop'. Last legit storm we got Dec 13-14 here they asked me how much I was looking at. I said 6, maybe 7 and they did some juggling motion and started repeating six, sevennnn. So, um, yeah I 'blessed' 

it is a true blessing to have two kids, but it is NOT a blessing for your kids to contaminate your mind with useless stuff. 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Not a bad trend for that diving piece. Though I could not get 18z since it does not go far enough. In the interest of transparency, I think the organization of the whole thing was worse there. But 00z and 06z definitely nice trends away from that.

I don’t think it’s really a “new” thing, but rather a timing difference. If you look at 00z, there’s a piece of energy that dives in a couple frames before this.

Whether I’m right or not, if we can get that piece to dive in and phase then we’re in bidness.

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Feb of 23. I had 8 inches last January brother. You live in a different world than me as far as snow goes. You really need to move west just another 30 miles. 

I had 9” in the early-January storm and I’m a smidge west of the fall line!

[baltosquid]

Also I like where the tendencies are on the ensemble. And the heights themselves definitely trended more neutral. Only caveat as WxUSAF said is that it still needs to nudge west to really put us in the canonical bullseye for an h5 leading into a coastal.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[baltosquid]

ICON has me interested

[LP08]

Hmm.  Icon seems to be digging more west.  Steeper ridge out west.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON gonna be so close, need that trough to go negative a little earlier but yeah we're in the game.

[baltosquid]

Just now, LP08 said:

Hmm.  Icon seems to be digging more west.  Steeper ridge out west.

Still want it more negative but maybe the NS can help it tilt by gametime

[baltosquid]

Nope, still too late. But we're getting there.

[LP08]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Nope, still too late. But we're getting there.

Looked better initially but the NS sw phasing was delayed vs previous runs. Good in one direction, bad in another.  Par for the course

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Nope, still too late. But we're getting there.

Gosh, Pivotal is so much faster. Was refreshing WxBell and am 40 hours behind. 

[Diesel BrokeHer]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

this is the most accurate thing ever lol

but 95% of people here have no idea what sybau means lol

For the record, I have to google have the $h!t you people say.  But I'm learning! 

[Eskimo Joe]

EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign.

EDIT: Yes, I know this is for TN, if it's showing a favorable pattern to our south, then we're in a position to score here.

 

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign.

 

 

Good for Tennessee? lol 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign.

 

 

FWIW - same kind of graphic for DCA instead of wherever TN

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Good for Tennessee? lol 

If it's conducive for snow to our south, then we're in a position to score.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Good for Tennessee? lol 

I think as a proxy for "when the storm winds up", more snow modeled in TN is good. If it isn't there, would suggest the process is delayed and we go OTS I think.

[baltosquid]

I only have pivotal's surface plots for the ICON-EPS but if for a giggle one wants to consider it, I think the low placement is better. The low to our NE is getting out faster and there's broader low pressure along the east coast on the mean. Stronger high to the NW.

[TSSN+]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If it's conducive for snow to our south, then we're in a position to score.

Depends, Tennessee can get snow out of cutters so never know. 

[adelphi_sky]

8 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

I think as a proxy for "when the storm winds up", more snow modeled in TN is good. If it isn't there, would suggest the process is delayed and we go OTS I think.

Wouldn't NC be better in terms of Mid-Atlantic coastal though?

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

FWIW - same kind of graphic for DCA instead of wherever TN

3” in a week is solid when there’s not a single event to key on