January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

All I can do is laugh. I'll admit this place is entertaining.

[CAPE]

Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol.

[Ji]

Every time we are at a cross roads…we always go the other way. The wrong way

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro looks like crap

Happy New Year to you too, Ji.

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

Every time we are at a cross roads…we always go the other way. The wrong way

More emotional crap from you lol. You don't understand science.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol.

Some people here need to learn what chaos theory is.

[pazzo83]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol.

also the data is very incomplete.

[CAPE]

Just now, bncho said:

Some people here need to learn what chaos theory is.

I've been here long enough to know that 'some people' will never learn. Its tiresome. 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I've been here long enough to know that 'some people' will never learn. Its tiresome. 

clearly nature is conspiring against us.

[Ji]

More emotional crap from you lol. You don't understand science.

lol you just said weather is random

[CAPE]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

also the data is very incomplete.

And the equations used to describe the atmosphere are quite primitive. Amazing the models perform as well as they do given the complexity of the atmosphere.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol you just said weather is random

yes and you whine when you don't get the outcome you want.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol you just said weather is random

Chaos theory is literally a scientific theory that tries to find patterns and rules of nature in seemingly random things, like the weather. 

[pazzo83]

random events still fall along some defined probability distribution (even if we don't have the math to describe it yet).

[CAPE]

Just now, bncho said:

Chaos theory is literally a scientific theory that tries to find patterns and rules of nature in seemingly random things, like the weather. 

That sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher speaking to him.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Was never really a favorable period

We were lucky to get so cold in Dec with the pattern, as the NAO had its most negative Winter month out of the last 60 Winter months (since Dec 2010)! -WPO contributed to it, too. 

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

That sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher speaking to him.

oh well, i'm sure you understand, but ji doesnt have the brainpower to even comprehend it so why even try at this point lol

[stormtracker]

54 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z EPS tries to develop -EPO mid-month, which would quickly cool down the NE, while other models have more -WPO/-AO.. ridge near Russia. Interesting difference

[Ji]

0z EPS tries to develop -EPO mid-month, which would quickly cool down the NE, while other models have more -WPO/-AO.. ridge near Russia. Interesting difference

Epo can be dry or too southy with storms right?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Epo can be dry or too southy with storms right?

-EPO is the coldest pattern

Its precip is "ok". When there is a trough in the PNA region or Gulf of Alaska there is a big negative sea level pressure anomaly on the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. But not epo, -EPO is more High pressure dominant

Sometimes you will pop a low on the coast though

[mitchnick]

Geps may not be so bad and is probably the coolest of the 3 0z ensembles past the 12th. Gfs/Gefs is a cluster no doubt. As Chuck's pointed out, Eps ain't bad. I short, anything but what the Gfs/Gefs show. But at this point, any of the 3 is possible, or a combination, is possible. Iow, none of them is likely correct. Lol

[mitchnick]

End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS. Next big dog chance a couple weeks away....enjoy the break this week.  Clean up the yard warning in effect.....

[frd]

48 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS. Next big dog chance a couple weeks away....enjoy the break this week.  Clean up the yard warning in effect.....

 

The ECMWF AIFS Ens I heard are doing well. This shows we are back in business by the 15th. 

GEFS AI at the very bottom. 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

General concensus is still up with the PNA as of today's update.

 

[NorthArlington101]

Barring any pop up surprises we seem to be pretty cooked until the 12th. Time to focus on the New Years’ resolutions that we’re all gonna drop by mid-January before getting back to tracking snow!

[kgottwald]

19 hours ago, Ji said:

thats actually when i dont like snow. I hate that look

I don't own a vehicle. I walk or use public transit everywhere.

That much snow would pretty much guarantee I would eventually be hit by a car as I try to navigate around the drifts.

[osfan24]

This isn’t even can-kicking. This is punting and not sure you are getting the ball back. Hopefully, we can salvage part of January. Looks like our shut the blinds pattern lasted longer than expected.

[kgottwald]

18 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

2 times I've seen 4"+ in an hour in our region, 1/26/11 and the first 2/10 storm. 

I remember the March 8, 1984 thundersnow. My house got those rates, as did Dulles.