CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All I can do is laugh. I'll admit this place is entertaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Every time we are at a cross roads…we always go the other way. The wrong way 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks like crap Happy New Year to you too, Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ji said: Every time we are at a cross roads…we always go the other way. The wrong way More emotional crap from you lol. You don't understand science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol. Some people here need to learn what chaos theory is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol. also the data is very incomplete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, bncho said: Some people here need to learn what chaos theory is. I've been here long enough to know that 'some people' will never learn. Its tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, CAPE said: I've been here long enough to know that 'some people' will never learn. Its tiresome. clearly nature is conspiring against us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 More emotional crap from you lol. You don't understand science.lol you just said weather is random 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, pazzo83 said: also the data is very incomplete. And the equations used to describe the atmosphere are quite primitive. Amazing the models perform as well as they do given the complexity of the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol you just said weather is random yes and you whine when you don't get the outcome you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol you just said weather is random Chaos theory is literally a scientific theory that tries to find patterns and rules of nature in seemingly random things, like the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 random events still fall along some defined probability distribution (even if we don't have the math to describe it yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, bncho said: Chaos theory is literally a scientific theory that tries to find patterns and rules of nature in seemingly random things, like the weather. That sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher speaking to him. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Was never really a favorable period We were lucky to get so cold in Dec with the pattern, as the NAO had its most negative Winter month out of the last 60 Winter months (since Dec 2010)! -WPO contributed to it, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, CAPE said: That sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher speaking to him. oh well, i'm sure you understand, but ji doesnt have the brainpower to even comprehend it so why even try at this point lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: Weather is complicated and random. Guidance is imperfect. The equations used to represent the atmosphere are not accurate enough to perfectly represent the chaotic nature of large scale fluid mechanics. Deal with it lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0z EPS tries to develop -EPO mid-month, which would quickly cool down the NE, while other models have more -WPO/-AO.. ridge near Russia. Interesting difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 0z EPS tries to develop -EPO mid-month, which would quickly cool down the NE, while other models have more -WPO/-AO.. ridge near Russia. Interesting differenceEpo can be dry or too southy with storms right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Epo can be dry or too southy with storms right? -EPO is the coldest pattern Its precip is "ok". When there is a trough in the PNA region or Gulf of Alaska there is a big negative sea level pressure anomaly on the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. But not epo, -EPO is more High pressure dominant Sometimes you will pop a low on the coast though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Geps may not be so bad and is probably the coolest of the 3 0z ensembles past the 12th. Gfs/Gefs is a cluster no doubt. As Chuck's pointed out, Eps ain't bad. I short, anything but what the Gfs/Gefs show. But at this point, any of the 3 is possible, or a combination, is possible. Iow, none of them is likely correct. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 End of the 6z Gefs, if correct, looks workable as it may be a bit wetter with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 WB 0Z EPS. Next big dog chance a couple weeks away....enjoy the break this week. Clean up the yard warning in effect..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 48 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS. Next big dog chance a couple weeks away....enjoy the break this week. Clean up the yard warning in effect..... The ECMWF AIFS Ens I heard are doing well. This shows we are back in business by the 15th. GEFS AI at the very bottom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 General concensus is still up with the PNA as of today's update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Barring any pop up surprises we seem to be pretty cooked until the 12th. Time to focus on the New Years’ resolutions that we’re all gonna drop by mid-January before getting back to tracking snow! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 19 hours ago, Ji said: thats actually when i dont like snow. I hate that look I don't own a vehicle. I walk or use public transit everywhere. That much snow would pretty much guarantee I would eventually be hit by a car as I try to navigate around the drifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 This isn’t even can-kicking. This is punting and not sure you are getting the ball back. Hopefully, we can salvage part of January. Looks like our shut the blinds pattern lasted longer than expected. 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18 hours ago, DDweatherman said: 2 times I've seen 4"+ in an hour in our region, 1/26/11 and the first 2/10 storm. I remember the March 8, 1984 thundersnow. My house got those rates, as did Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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