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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When you dig deeper into the model analysis it's a pretty encouraging look IMO and should have folks interests peaked. I get part of the "fun" is just whipping out SLP and snow maps to see something but you gotta look beyond those.

Record negative EPO is all I need to see. Expect an all time Arctic outbreak end of the month or start of Feb. Those -50 temps will be on the move. With the STJ increase its going to get very stormy. Look for our very climo big timer to occur between the 24th and 31st. Possibly finally an entire east coast mauler. 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, I see some boat missing by those making an "analysis" of these 12z guidance....    haha.

The Euro was really close .. really really close to going bonkers with that Jan 15 thing,  which was a massive step toward amplitude comparing the prior run.  The CMC also moved significantly toward a deeper +PNA with coastal implications heavily flirted. 

I dunno.  From this range?  I call that plenty to look at.

IMO, this is one of the best modeled looks we have had in several years. I really hate saying that because that's been said multiple times each of the last few winters but not only is there consensus in how the teleconnections trend and align but how they become structured. That period around Jan 15th...I find it extremely difficult to believe there would not be something around...unless we totally lose the look. But as long as we maintain this look I think we are going to have 2-3 storm threats within a 10 day period. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Record negative EPO is all I need to see. Expect an all time Arctic outbreak end of the month or start of Feb. Those -50 temps will be on the move. With the STJ increase its going to get very stormy. Look for our very climo big timer to occur between the 24th and 31st. Possibly finally an entire east coast mauler. 

100% agreed

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yesterday OKX had me dry while BOX showed what was actually occurring light to moderate snow burst. I am about equal distance from both radars. It happens 

Guarantee he is getting virga. BOX is sampling his area at 5kft. ENX is 10kft. Won’t comment on your scenario, but wind under the beam can affect ground truth. 

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33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Whiners in CT about 2015? 106 inches who is whining? Look at those max depths state wide. Only whiners are those who constantly think they should JP in areas that rarely Jackpot 

Screenshot_20260106_130737_Chrome.jpg

Ask the CT guys who brought it up. No one talked about JPs.....we were just discussing how none of us likely being left out of the focus area.

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20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When you dig deeper into the model analysis it's a pretty encouraging look IMO and should have folks interests peaked. I get part of the "fun" is just whipping out SLP and snow maps to see something but you gotta look beyond those.

Well, Paul....to be fair, many of us have been doing that for years now with little fanfare. ...so it's natural to want to wait until something makes at least into the medium range before giving it the time of day. I don't think anyone is debating the PNA spike in that time frame.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Guarantee he is getting virga. BOX is sampling his area at 5kft. ENX is 10kft. Won’t comment on your scenario, but wind under the beam can affect ground truth. 

Yep agree. Often OKX is underrepresented here but is priceless watching echoes come off the south coast. I miss gravity waves. OKX has the best view of them. BOX and TBOX are beautiful to watch OES and seeder feeder bands.

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dont paint an entire state under one umbrella.  Like me saying all of Mass is bitching about Jan 05 when someone in  a subbyhole only got a foot while the Cape had 3 feet.

Not sure who did that...I had 22". Sucks for them.

But CT is where the two  guys that responded to me were from, which is why I said "CT". No one ever explicitly claimed that the whole state got porked. This is the risk of jumping into dialogue after the fact.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, Paul....to be fair, many of us have been doing that for years now with little fanfare. ...so it's natural to want to wait until something makes at least into the medium range before giving it the time of day. I don't think anyone is debating the PNA spike in that time frame.

I'm talking more about saying an upcoming stretch looks boring or quiet or writing off an upcoming stretch just because a storm isn't popping up on guidance. I would definitely wait until we're closer to get super excited and hopeful, but right now we stand in a good spot...much better than looking at a ridge in the east 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I'm talking more about saying an upcoming stretch looks boring or quiet or writing off an upcoming stretch just because a storm isn't popping up on guidance. I would definitely wait until we're closer to get super excited and hopeful, but right now we stand in a good spot...much better than looking at a ridge in the east 

Oh, absolutely...yea. I just think people are bruised, battered and gun-shy.

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