2026 forecast contest thread -- enter your March 2026 forecasts

[PositiveEPOEnjoyer]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+0.9   +0.5    +0.3   +2.4   +2.0   +2.9   +3.0   +0.5   +0.8

[Rjay]

DCA: -5.0

 

 

 

NYC: -5.0

 

 

 

BOS: -5.0

 

 

 

ORD: -2.5

 

 

 

ATL: -2.2

 

 

 

IAH: +3.0

 

 

 

DEN: +3.3

 

 

 

PHX: +3.0

 

 

 

SEA: +2.2

[dmillz25]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-3.0  -3.0  -2.5  -1.5   0.0  +1.5  +3.0 +3.5 +3.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for February 2026

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA

 

PositiveEPO Enjoyer ______ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+2.4 _+2.0 _+2.9  __+3.0 _+0.5 _+0.8

Scotty Lightning ___________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5

____ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 

BKViking __________________-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.5 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.8

so_whats_happening ______-2.2 _ -2.3 _ -2.5 __ -1.0 _ -0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +1.6

hudsonvalley21 ____________-2.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.8 __ -2.7 _ -0.5 _ +0.3 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +2.3

wxallannj __________________-3.0 _ -2.8 _ -2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +0.4 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

dmillz25 ___________________-3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.5 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 

____ Consensus __________ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -1.0 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 

DonSutherland1 ___________-3.0 _ -3.3 _ -3.3 __ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ +3.4 _ +3.6

wxdude64 ________________ -3.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ +1.7 _ +2.4 _ +2.1

Tom _______________________-4.2 _ -4.5 _ -4.6 __ -2.6 _ -2.8 _ -0.6 __ +3.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.7

RJay _______________________-5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -2.5 _ -2.2 _ +3.0 __ +3.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 

Roger Smith _______________-5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 __ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

RodneyS __________________-8.5 _ -9.0 _ -8.9 __ -3.7 _ -2.5 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.4 _ +1.2

_____________________________________

Persistence (Jan 2026) ___ -4.2 _ -3.3 _ -1.9 __ -3.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.7 _ +4.3 _ +0.6

==============================

will add color codes later, will have to consider whether or not warmest should be dual-format depending on next month entries. 

(having a one and done as warmest should be along with warmest regular forecaster for extreme forecast designations but if the new entrant makes more forecasts then they would have exclusive access for designation)

(coldest forecasts are mostly among last two entries shown, except for western region where BKV or SL have them)

All of our western forecasts are above normal. All but a few eastern and ORD-ATL are below. IAH is more variable. 

<<< table will be adjusted if further entries are received >>>

[Roger Smith]

Today, just bringing over the 2025-26 snowfall contest entries from the previous contest year thread. 

 

____ Table of Snowfall forecasts for winter 2025-26 ____

Forecasts highlighted in red are currently closest to the seasonal total so far. 

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV

wxallannj _______________________23.0 _28.0 _ 28.0 __45.0 _44.0 _89.0 ___44.0 _18.0 _ 99.0

Tom ____________________________ 19.5 _ 31.1 _ 44.5 __ 40.1 _42.4 _102.4 __ 54.8 _ 6.1 _ 81.4  

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 18.0 _ 22.0 _ 31.0 __ 32.0 _42.0 _93.0 ___52.0 _ 4.0 _ 88.0

wxdude64 _____________________ 15.6 _ 28.6 _ 41.1 ___30.3 _45.5_ 101.5 ___ 66.2 _ 4.7 _ 93.3

BKViking _______________________ 15.0 _ 32.0 _ 41.0 __40.0 _22.0_ 96.0 ___ 58.0 _13.0 _ 80.0     

Rjay ____________________________ 15.0 _ 21.0 _ 44.0 __50.0 _33.0_ 100.0 ___65.0 _ 6.0 _ 90.0

___ Consensus _________________ 15.0 _ 22.5 _ 39.5 __40.1 _42.2 _ 94.5 ___ 55.2 _ 6.1 _ 87.5  

Scotty Lightning _______________ 15.0 _ 20.0 _ 25.0 __ 30.0 _45.0 _85.0 ___ 50.0 _ 5.0 _ 95.0

so_whats_happening __________ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 39.0 __ 42.0 _40.0 _91.0 ___ 38.0 _ 4.0 _ 87.0

Roger Smith ____________________12.8 _ 25.6 _ 50.7 __ 57.3 _ 61.5 _115.7 ___ 70.0 _12.5 _ 88.8

DonSutherland1 ________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ 40.0 __ 37.5 _45.0 _ 92.0 ___ 40.0 _ 6.5 _ 80.0

RodneyS ________________________ 6.7 _ 18.9 _ 35.7 __ 44.4 _49.1 _ 99.9 ___ 55.6 _ 9.1 _ 70.4

Mercurial ________________________1.0 _ 10.0 _ 20.0 __ 30.0 _ 30.0 _70.0 ___ 65.0 _ 6.0 _ 60.0

___ snowfall to date (Feb 17) ____8.6 _22.3 __41.5 ___ 32.1 __36.3 _81.6 ___13.4 _ Tr __ 64.8

% of consensus to date ________ 57 __ 99 ___105 ____ 80 __ 86 ___ 87 _____ 24 __ 0 ___ 74   

Forecasts surpassed ____________ 2 ___ 6 ___ 9 ______ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 _______ 0 ___ 0 __ 1

=====================

Consensus for snowfall is the median of 12 forecasts

______________________________________________________________________________________

Anomalies and projections for February temperatures follow ...

______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

_________(anom 1-16)_________-7.5 _ -7.4 _ -5.0 __ +3.8 _ +1.0 _ +5.0 __+12.4 _ +9.2 _ +2.0

_________(p anom 1-28) ______-4.5 _ -4.5 _ -4.0 __ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +4.5 __ +8.0 _ +6.0 _ +1.0

(17th) _ A very warm start to the month in the west, and very cold in the east. There will be a partial reversal of these trends but not enough to change the anomaly signs in most if not all cases. Will post some preliminary Feb scores soon.

 

[Roger Smith]

<<< Preliminary scoring for February 2026 >>>

Scores are based on latest posted end of month anomaly estimates in previous post.

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH _cent _c/e_ _ DEN_PHX_SEA_west__TOTAL

 

PositiveEPO Enjoyer _______ 00 _ 00 _ 14 __014_ 88 _ 90 _ 68 _246_ 260_ 30 _ 05 _ 96 __131____377

Scotty Lightning ___________ 10 _ 10 _ 20 __040_ 40 _ 50 _ 10 _ 100_ 140 _ 10 _ 20 _ 90 __120____260

____ Normal ________________ 10 _ 10 _ 20 __040_ 40 _ 50 _ 10 _ 100_ 140_ 00 _ 00 _ 80 __080____220 

BKViking ___________________50 _ 60 _ 70 __180_ 00 _ 30 _ 30 _060_ 240_ 13 _ 14 _ 96 __123____ 363

so_whats_happening ______ 54 _ 56 _ 70 __180_ 20 _ 42 _ 28 _090_ 270_ 21 _ 38 _ 88 __147 ____ 417

hudsonvalley21 ____________ 62 _ 68 _ 76 __206_ 00 _ 40 _ 16 _056_ 262_ 26 _ 32 _ 74 __132____ 394

wxallannj __________________ 70 _ 66 _ 72 __208_ 30 _ 26 _ 18 _074_ 282_ 20 _ 40 _ 90 __150____ 432

dmillz25 ___________________ 70 _ 70 _ 70 __210 _ 10 _ 50 _ 40 _100 _ 310_ 30 _ 60 _ 60 __150____ 460

____ Consensus __________ 70 _ 70 _ 76 __216 _ 02 _ 30 _ 24 _056_ 272_ 21 _ 38 _ 80 __139____ 411 

DonSutherland1 ___________ 70 _ 76 _ 86 __232_ 34 _ 20 _ 46 _100_ 332_ 70 _ 58 _ 48 __176____ 508

wxdude64 ________________ 78 _ 72 _ 86 __236_ 02 _ 32 _ 02 _036_ 272 _ 17 _ 38 _ 78 __133____ 405

Tom _______________________94 _100_ 88 __282_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000_ 282_ 38 _ 46 _ 46__130____ 412

RJay _______________________90 _ 90 _ 80 __260_ 00 _ 06 _ 70 _076_ 336_ 36 _ 50 _ 76 __162____ 498 

Roger Smith _______________ 80 _ 70 _ 50 __200_ 00 _ 00 _ 00 _000_ 200_ 20 _ 30 _ 80 __130____ 330

RodneyS __________________ 20 _ 10 _ 02 __ 032_ 00 _ 00 _ 24 _024_ 056_ 29 _ 38 _ 96 __163____ 219

_____________________________________

Persistence (Jan 2026) ___ 94 _ 76 _ 58 __228_ 00 _ 48 _ 28 __076_ 304_ 27 _ 76 _ 92 __195____ 499

==============================

Note: Extreme forecasts will be worked out depending in part whether or not PositiveEPO Enjoyer enters March, an entry will remove "best of regulars" from consideration. This may also apply to max-60 scoring which might come into play for ORD (same considerations). 

At this point, DCA, NYC and BOS all sit outside the outcome for a win-loss, any outcomes where Roger Smith is high score will activate those, but otherwise not quite cold enough. (RodneyS would then take losses, seems out of reach now for an outright win)

ORD seems likely to finish as a win for PositiveEPO Enjoyer, and if not an entrant for March, a win also credited to Scotty Lightning and Normal. 

ATL seems likely to finish as a win for PositiveEPO Enjoyer, and if not an entrant for March, a win also credited to Scotty Lightning, dmillz25, and Normal. 

IAH seems likely to finish as a win for RJay. 

DEN is very likely to finish as a win for DonSutherland1.

PHX is likely to be a win for dmillz25.

SEA currently would not qualify as an extreme forecast. 

 

[Roger Smith]

POST reserved for annual totals 

Below this, post your MARCH 2026 forecasts ...