2026 forecast contest thread -- enter your March 2026 forecasts

[Roger Smith]

With the new year approaching, I am terminating the 2025 contest thread with the results of Dec 2025 and the annual contest, and moving all new activity over to this thread where you can post Jan 2026 forecasts at any time, as is our custom in January, no late penalties will fall until later into the first week, let's say for sure no penalties before end of Jan 2nd, so take your time and post / edit freely -- if you don't see a table of forecasts you can edit because I only see the forecasts when I make up the table.

For anyone new wanting to enter, the forecast contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies at nine locations across the U.S., in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages.

The nine locations are DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

... Happy new year ...

[Scotty Lightning]

January!

 

 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0        1.0       0.5       0.5     1.5     1.5     0.5     1.0       0.5

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -2.5    -2.4    -2.6     -0.8    +1.1    +0.7   +1.2   +0.4

[hudsonvalley21]

January 2026

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4    -1.2     -1.4     -1.5   +0.7    +1.9    -0.3    +2.1    +0.2

[bkviking]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.5     -1.4   -1.2    -1.6     0.9    +1.0    +0.5   +1.6  +1.0

[wxallannj]

  DCA _  NYC _  BOS _ ORD _    ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 +0.5     -0.4     -0.7    -0.4      +2.5    +2.2    +2.0  +1.6   +0.7 

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -2.1

NYC:  -2.2

BOS:  -2.3

ORD:  -1.8

ATL:  -0.6

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +1.1

PHX:  +2.1

SEA:  +1.3

[donsutherland1]

DCA _  NYC _  BOS _ ORD _    ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -1.9     -2.0    -0.2       2.2     3.8     2.0     2.7       2.0 

[Roger Smith]

-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 _ -1.5 _ 0.0 _ +2.0 _ +4.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thanks for doing it Roger.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.5     -1.2    -1.7    -2.5     +1.0    +2.7    +1.5   +3.5   +0.7

[Rjay]

DCA: 0.0

 

NYC: 0.0

 

BOS: 0.0

 

ORD: 0.0

 

ATL: +3.0

 

IAH: +4.0

 

DEN: +1.0

 

PHX: +2.5

 

SEA: 0.0

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.1     -1        -1.7     -0.5    +1.6    +1.9    +1.9    +1.6      +1

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Glad to see all of you wanting to continue, will perhaps send invites to some part-time participants of recent times too.

You can edit any of those forecasts up until afternoon of Jan 2nd when I start working on a table of forecasts. 

A lot of the scoring work for last year's contest has been done, just adjusting a few numbers as final data reports come in. ORD was -3.5 with a +14.3 week 22nd to 28th. Now that's bizarre. 

[dmillz25]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.0    -2.5    -1.5    +0.5   +1.7    +2.5   +3.0  +2.0    +1.5

havent done this in like 6 years but im back!

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.7    -0.6    -0.5     0.3      2.7     3.3     0.5    -0.7    -0.8

[Rhino16]

tossing some numbers out: hopefully not too late! I keep saying I’ll be consistent but maybe for real this time! 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA
 

3.0 _ 2.3 _ 1.5 _ -0.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.9 _ 1.5

[Roger Smith]

__ Table of forecasts for January 2026 __

____

FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Rhino16 __________________________ +3.0 _+2.3 _+1.5 ___ -0.2 _+3.5 _+3.5 ___ -0.4 _-0.9 _+1.5

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5 ___+0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5

wxallannj ________________________ +0.5 _-0.4 _-0.7 ___ -0.4 _+2.5 _+2.2 ___ +2.0 _+1.6 _+0.7

RJay ______________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __+3.0 _+4.0 ___+1.0 _+2.5 __0.0

____ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 __________________ -0.4 _-1.2 _-1.4 ___ -1.5 _ +0.7 _ +1.9 ___ -0.3 _ +2.1 _ +0.2

StormchaserChuck1 _____________ -0.5 _-1.2 _ -1.7 ___ -2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.7 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ +0.7

DonSutherland1 _________________ -0.5 _ -1.9 _ -2.0 __ -0.2 _+2.2 _+3.8 ___ +2.0 _ +2.7 _ +2.0

___ consensus ___________________-0.6 _ -1.2 _ -1.4 __ -0.3 _ +1.6 _ +2.1 ___ +1.1 __ +1.6 _ +0.9   

RodneyS _________________________ -0.7 _-0.6 _-0.5 ___ +0.3 _+2.7 _+3.3 ___ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.8

so_whats_happening _____________-1.1 __-1.0 _ -1.7 ___ -0.5 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 ___ +1.9 _ +1.6 _ +1.0

BKViking _________________________-1.5 _ -1.4 _ -1.2 ___ -1.6 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.6 _+1.0

Tom _____________________________ -1.9 _ -2.5 _-2.4 ___ -2.6 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 ____+0.7 _+1.2 _ +0.4

dmillz25 __________________________ -2.0 _-2.5 _-1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.7 _+2.5 ___ +3.0 _+2.0 _+1.5

wxdude64 ________________________-2.1 _ -2.2 _-2.3 ___ -1.8 _-0.6 _+0.6 ____ +1.1 _ +2.1 _ +1.3

Roger Smith ______________________-2.5 _ -2.8 _ -2.9 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _+2.0 ___ +4.5 _+3.5 _+1.0

==============================

Persistence (Dec 2025) __________-4.4 _-5.3 _-4.4 ____-3.5 _+1.7 _+4.0 ___ +11.1 _ +7.4 _ +3.2

=================

Highest and lowest forecasts (excluding persistence) are color coded; Normal is lowest for IAH and tied lowest for SEA.

 

[Roger Smith]

A look at anomalies and projections, plus updates on seasonal snowfall ...

_____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

__(anom 1-16) ______+2.0 _+3.1 _+2.8 ___ +6.7 _+6.8 _+8.3 __+10.2 _+4.8 _+2.7

__(anom 1-25) ______-0.8 _-0.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.6 _+3.3 _+4.3 __ +3.2 _ +4.5 _+0.1

17_(p anom 1-31) ___ -2.0 _-1.5 _-2.0 ____ -0.5 _+1.5 _+3.5 ___ +5.0 _ +4.0 _+2.0

26_(p anom 1-31)___ -3.0 _-3.0 _-2.5 ____ -3.0 _+0.5 _+1.5 ___ +3.5 _ +3.5 __0.0

final anoms for Jan_-4.2 _-3.3 _-1.9 ____ -3.3 _+0.4 _+0.9 ___ +2.7 _ +4.3 _ +0.6

(17th) _ Extreme cold will dominate eastern and central regions in second half of January and will even cut into the large positive anomaly at DEN for a few days but will not reach PHX and will have less impact on the southeast. I could imagine even lower outcomes than shown in the east as these projections require an anomaly of about -6F now to 31st. Some days will average -15 to -20 anomalies. Snowfall reports below will be updated in this post whenever necessary. The end of Jan temp anomalies will be updated around the 26th and preliminary scoring may be posted after that update.

(26th) _ Much colder anomalies in most places now, so I have (as expected to some extent) revised some of the projections a little. Also the snowfall contest numbers are updated after the big storm this past weekend. Data to mid-day 26th ... will continue to update snowfall data, and will do the final monthly anomalies and scoring on Feb 1st. (may post preliminary scores before that).  

(Feb 1st) _ Final anomalies posted above, scoring is updated and complete.

 

____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

snowfall to 2-10_____8.6" _21.2" _41.1" __32.1"_ 36.3"_ 77.6"__13.4"_ 0.0" _ 62.0"

[Roger Smith]

__ Table of scoring for January 2026 __

 

FORECASTER ____________________DCA_NYC_BOS_ east _ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL

Roger Smith ______________________ 66 _ 90 _ 80 _236 _ 64 _ 92 _ 78 _ 234 _470 _ 64 _ 84 _ 92 _240___710

wxdude64 ________________________ 58 _ 78 _ 92 _228 _ 70 _ 80 _ 94 _ 244 _ 472 _ 68 _ 56 _ 86 _210 ___682

Tom ______________________________ 54 _ 84 _ 90 _228 _ 86 _ 76 _ 96 _ 258 _ 486 _ 60 _ 38 _ 96 _194 ___680

StormchaserChuck1 ______________ 44 _ 38 _ 96 _ 178 _ 84 _ 88 _ 64 _ 236 _414 _ 76 _ 84 _ 98 _ 258 ___672

BKViking _________________________ 46 _ 62 _ 86 _ 194 _ 66 _ 90 _ 98 _254 _448 _ 56 _ 46 _ 80 _182 ___630

dmillz25 __________________________56 _ 84 _ 92 _232 _ 24 _ 74 _ 68 _ 166 _ 398 _ 94 _ 54 _ 82 _230 ___628

so_whats_happening _____________38 _ 54 _ 96 _ 188 _ 44 _ 76 _ 80 _ 200 _388 _ 84 _ 46 _ 92 _222 ___610

hudsonvalley21 __________________ 42 _ 38 _ 90 _ 170 _ 64 _ 94 _ 80 _ 238 _408 _ 40 _ 56 _ 92 _ 188 ___596

___ consensus __________________ 28 _ 58 _ 90 _ 176 _ 40 _ 76 _ 86 _ 202 _ 378 _ 68 _ 46 _ 94 _208 ___586   

DonSutherland1 __________________ 44 _ 52 _ 98 _ 194 _ 38 _ 64 _ 42 _ 144 _338 _ 86 _ 68 _ 72 _226 ___564

wxallannj _________________________ 06 _ 42 _ 76 _ 124 _ 42 _ 58 _ 74 _ 174 _ 298 _ 86 _ 46 _ 98 _230 ___528

(Persistence _ see below) _ 500

____ Normal _______________________16 _ 34 _ 62 _ 112 _ 34 _ 92 _ 82 _ 208 _320 _ 46 _ 14 _ 88 _ 148 ___468

Scotty Lightning _________________ 00 _ 14 _ 72 _ 086 _ 24 _ 78 _ 88 _ 190 _276 _ 56 _ 34 _ 98 _ 188 ___464

RodneyS _________________________ 30 _ 46 _ 72 _ 148 _ 28 _ 54 _ 52 _ 134 _282 _ 56 _ 28 _ 96 _ 180 ___462

RJay ______________________________16 _ 34 _ 62 _ 112 _ 34 _ 48 _ 38 _ 120 _232 _ 66 _ 64 _ 88 _218 ___450

Rhino16 __________________________ 00 _ 00 _ 32 _032 _ 38 _ 38 _ 48 _ 124 _156 _ 38 _ 00 _ 82 _120 ___276

==============================

Persistence (Dec 2025) __________ 96 _ 60 _ 50 _ 206 _ 96 _ 74 _ 38 _ 208 _ 414 _ 00 _ 38 _ 48 _ 086 ___500 

____________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

DCA (-4.2), NYC (-3.3) are wins for Roger Smith with coldest forecasts.

BOS (-1.9) does not qualify as an extreme forecast, fourth coldest forecast was high score.

ORD (-3.3) is a win for Tom with coldest forecast.

ATL (+0.4) does not qualify at 0.4, would be a win-loss situation below -0.3

IAH (+0.9) is a win for BKViking (+1.0) and a loss for wxdude64 (+0.6) and Normal.

DEN (+2.7) is a win for dmillz25 (+3.0) and a loss for Roger Smith (+4.5).

PHX (+4.3) is a shared win for StormchaserChuck and Roger Smith with highest forecasts.

SEA (+0.6) does not qualify as an extreme forecast.

=================

[Roger Smith]

Post your February forecasts, due to storm situation will extend penalty free deadline to 06z FEB 2nd.

I may change my mind but to start us off, 

-5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 _ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0

[Scotty Lightning]

Febrrrrrruary

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.0       0.0       0.0      0.0     00     0.0      1.0     1.5      0.5 

[MJO812]

Weeklies continue with this cold and stormy pattern.

[bkviking]

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.0       -2.5       -2.5      -2.2     -1.0     1.0      1.3     1.2      0.8

[hudsonvalley21]

February 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.6     -2.9      -2.8     -2.7    -0.5     +0.3    +2.6    +2.1     +2.3

 

[wxallannj]

February 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-3.0     -2.8      -2.6     -0.5    -1.2    +0.4    +2.0    +2.5     +1.5

[donsutherland1]

February:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-3.0     -3.3      -3.3    -0.3     -1.5    +1.8    +5.0    +3.4     +3.6

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-4.2     -4.5      -4.6    -2.6     -2.8    -0.6    +3.4    +2.8     +3.7

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-8.5     -9.0    - 8.9    -3.7     -2.5     0.7      2.9       2.4       1.2

[wxdude64]

Feb-

DCA:  -3.4

NYC:  -3.1

BOS:  -2.8

ORD:  -1.9

ATL:  -0.9

IAH:  -0.4

DEN:  +1.7

PHX:  +2.4

SEA:  +2.1

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.2    -2.3    -2.5     -1       -0.4     0.9    2.1      2.4      1.6