January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I broke down and looked at the MJO.  Turns out, it is forecast to park itself in 8-1-2-3 through at least late January.  It is in 6 right now - major winter storm in phase 6.  File that one away for safe keeping.  

The Euro weeklies have a trough in eastern NA for Feb.  Monster NAO block.  EPO ridge....for most of February.   Temps 7-9 degrees BN or Feb.  Precip is listed as BN - good luck with that during Feb.  If that verifies, that is a much different February than we have been used to of late.  It fits w/ the weak La Nina and negative QBO analogs.  Can we go 14-15...IDK?  But 95-96 2.00-light would suffice.

[jaxjagman]

I agree with what Andy says,this isnt NINA like with this storm.The most Catastrophic ice storms was in a NINO back into the 1950's and 90's in mid and west Tn That cold pool in the east should possibly get over taken and making the ENSO into a more Modoki but weak ENSO into spring.In typical sorta speaking this should be a early season severe season.least to my thinking

[Save the itchy algae!]

The gfs is close to cooking up something good for next week.

[Reb]

CMC way suppressed

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Strat split still showing up in early Feb 

Old googly eyed pattern

[Daniel Boone]

11 hours ago, Reb said:

CMC way suppressed

Expected that to be the Case. Hopefully we get lucky with a Northern Stream Disturbance or two. Maybe eek out a few inches from those. 

[nrgjeff]

End of the month system still shows up on GFS and AIFS Euro AI. Other ensembles are of course all over the place. That'll also have implications on the High Risk for much below normal temps from CPC.

[Carvers Gap]

12z....I like Thursday for a light snow event w/ the incoming front then.  The 0z GEM-para, which has been good, has it as does the 12z Euro.

[John1122]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z....I like Thursday for a light snow event w/ the incoming front then.  The GEM-para, which has been good, has it as does the Euro.

The GEM had 3 clippers in about 36 hours to end the week at 12z. It seems it didn't run at 12z today. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GEM had 3 clippers in about 36 hours to end the week at 12z. It seems it didn't run at 12z today. 

I didn't notice that...Thanks.  I assumed the time stamps was still 12z when I switched from the other 12z models.

[John1122]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I didn't notice that...Thanks.  I assumed the time stamps was still 12z when I switched from the other 12z models.

I meant 00z last night. It ran then and showed 3 northern stream waves but 12z didn't run. 

[Scottie16]

Warm nose isn’t as prominent yet. It’s stayed like that for the whole 6 hour run.


.

[Scottie16]

Current surface level. I suggest to all to download the Wise App. It’s free but summertime models cost 1.00 a month. Has everything.


.

[Tucker1027]

Warm nose isn’t as prominent yet. It’s stayed like that for the whole 6 hour run.


.

You thinking the shallow cold is winning?


.

[Scottie16]

You thinking the shallow cold is winning?


.

All, I have contacted support on this. I posted in the obs thread but it got put here.

I do think so for now.


.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z ensembles(EPS, GEPS) and 18z ensembles(AIFS-EPS, GEFS) all have a trough over the east  for most of their runs with maybe a 2-3 respite.  The Euro Weeklies continue that pattern well into February and maybe even early March.  The MJO-CPC is basically stalled in cold phases through mid-Feb when those runs end.  It looks likely that our cold and wintry pattern continues for a time - no guarantees.  IF that verifies, we all may be ready for spring when it finally arrives.

[John1122]

My warmest temperature for the  after tomorrow on my 2 week forecast from TWC is 38/22 on February 7th.  During that entire two weeks, it has zero precipitation. It's almost comical at that point. 

[Matthew70]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

My warmest temperature for the  after tomorrow on my 2 week forecast from TWC is 38/22 on February 7th.  During that entire two weeks, it has zero precipitation. It's almost comical at that point. 

Makes me sad.  No precip.  Unbelievable.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Makes me sad.  No precip.  Unbelievable.

It is possible, but unlikely in February IMHO.  I mean, we are in the middle of an ice storm right now w/ rain in the East.  I suspect we see several, small northern stream systems.  No model is gonna have details correct outside of 7 days...just generally a 500 pattern.  Cosgrove things another storm in the south next weekend is possible.  He says the cold and stormy pattern continues.  He is batting a thousand right now.  This current storm moved the precip line almost 500 miles in three model runs.

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is possible, but unlikely in February IMHO.  I mean, we are in the middle of an ice storm right now w/ rain in the East.  I suspect we see several, small northern stream systems.  No model is gonna have details correct outside of 7 days...just generally a 500 pattern.  Cosgrove things another storm in the south next weekend is possible.  He says the cold and stormy pattern continues.  He is batting a thousand right now.  This current storm moved the precip line almost 500 miles in three model runs.

I definitely don’t believe we go wo another storm.  Models past 3 days are not good. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

I definitely don’t believe we go wo another storm.  Models past 3 days are not good. 

The 6z GFS is one small system after another…lots of NW flow.  Prob favors NW flow areas, but I would assume there are some chances as Feb climatology will fight the dry pattern IMHO.

[tnweathernut]

While the looks of the last couple of days of storms having disappeared from the long range leaves a snow lover feeling like they are being let down, it is possible we are in that window of time where storms disappear for a couple of days.  
 

We just tried being in the bullseye 5-7 days out and that failed miserably here in east TN.  Let’s try the models saying all clear and see if they can be wrong that way also.  At least the cold will be such that anything that does pop up has a chance to be a snow event for the mid-south.

[Carvers Gap]

Thursday and the weekend have to be watched.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

While the looks of the last couple of days of storms having disappeared from the long range leaves a snow lover feeling like they are being let down, it is possible we are in that window of time where storms disappear for a couple of days.  
 

We just tried being in the bullseye 5-7 days out and that failed miserably here in east TN.  Let’s try the models saying all clear and see if they can be wrong that way also.  At least the cold will be such that anything that does pop up has a chance to be a snow event for the mid-south.

I like the positive thinking. Although I'm fearing 2014 flashbacks. 

[John1122]

Current QPF for mby after this system through 360.

Euro .23 over 14 days.

GFS .20

GFSAI .3 

Euro AI .20 

EPS AI .63 

EPS .38

GEFS .70

Canadian Ens .70

We are 1 to 1.5 inches BN across all modeling for the period. Hopefully something changes but it's went from wild snow totals to grim drought conditions. We just have to hope the drought solution is incorrect but sadly, we've experienced cold/dry once already this winter.

[John1122]

Best hope, Google's AI model gives us a little hope, and it's been the best model this winter.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Best hope, Google's AI model gives us a little hope, and it's been the best model this winter.

Yeah, I wish there was a way to get its data outside of Storm Vista. 

[WintryMixmaster]

40 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Current QPF for mby after this system through 360.

Euro .23 over 14 days.

GFS .20

GFSAI .3 

Euro AI .20 

EPS AI .63 

EPS .38

GEFS .70

Canadian Ens .70

We are 1 to 1.5 inches BN across all modeling for the period. Hopefully something changes but it's went from wild snow totals to grim drought conditions. We just have to hope the drought solution is incorrect but sadly, we've experienced cold/dry once already this winter.

This really has been the worst possible winter in East Tennessee... cold/dry with high heating bills, false hope storms just barely missing our area despite a good pattern on paper, and drought conditions. My only hope is that it only takes one storm to take a winter from 0/10 to 10/10 when we live somewhere with such a low seasonal average. Winter 2023-2024 sucked outside of 1 week, but that one week was probably the most epic week of winter I'll ever experience in Knoxville

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

This really has been the worst possible winter in East Tennessee... cold/dry with high heating bills, false hope storms just barely missing our area despite a good pattern on paper, and drought conditions. My only hope is that it only takes one storm to take a winter from 0/10 to 10/10 when we live somewhere with such a low seasonal average. Winter 2023-2024 sucked outside of 1 week, but that one week was probably the most epic week of winter I'll ever experience in Knoxville

Winter isn't over.

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

This really has been the worst possible winter in East Tennessee... cold/dry with high heating bills, false hope storms just barely missing our area despite a good pattern on paper, and drought conditions. My only hope is that it only takes one storm to take a winter from 0/10 to 10/10 when we live somewhere with such a low seasonal average. Winter 2023-2024 sucked outside of 1 week, but that one week was probably the most epic week of winter I'll ever experience in Knoxville

Yeah, So far just been basically unlucky with timing and placement of Systems. I've saw Winter's where that continued(anguish one's) and other's where we got in on the action in a great way.