January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I broke down and looked at the MJO.  Turns out, it is forecast to park itself in 8-1-2-3 through at least late January.  It is in 6 right now - major winter storm in phase 6.  File that one away for safe keeping.  

The Euro weeklies have a trough in eastern NA for Feb.  Monster NAO block.  EPO ridge....for most of February.   Temps 7-9 degrees BN or Feb.  Precip is listed as BN - good luck with that during Feb.  If that verifies, that is a much different February than we have been used to of late.  It fits w/ the weak La Nina and negative QBO analogs.  Can we go 14-15...IDK?  But 95-96 2.00-light would suffice.

[jaxjagman]

I agree with what Andy says,this isnt NINA like with this storm.The most Catastrophic ice storms was in a NINO back into the 1950's and 90's in mid and west Tn That cold pool in the east should possibly get over taken and making the ENSO into a more Modoki but weak ENSO into spring.In typical sorta speaking this should be a early season severe season.least to my thinking

[Save the itchy algae!]

The gfs is close to cooking up something good for next week.