January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z gfs is trying to make me feel like I live in the Sierra Nevada.  49" for TRI on that run?  AIFS less but still noteworthy.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Lol...accidentally hit the wrong time hour looking on this current setup and about fell out of my chair....then realized it wasn't a certain year in the 1990's 

I mean everything has a gulf storm in about as reasonable agreement as anyone could expect at 200 hours. I guess we'll see what manner of a rug pull happens if and when the rug gets laid down.

Will it be a rug yanker? A flopper? A shredder? An incineration? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For posterity, since no one else did, I'll throw some images out:

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It is interesting that a lot of the models were keen on a storm around the 28th until this weekend's behemoth began to coalesce. 

Maybe it pushed the signal back a bit? Maybe the pattern is just conducive for chances?

[Vol4Life]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For posterity, since no one else did, I'll throw some images out:

 

 

 

Typically this is right where we would want to be with the typical NW trend.  However, knowing our luck, it will keep getting further surpressed!

[Greyhound]

For posterity, since no one else did, I'll throw some images out:

 

 
 

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[John1122]

The Canadian is a beast too, but of course most of the forum area is missed. so we sit in a light snow/snow hole while there's 12+ inch totals to our north, south, east and west.

[jaxjagman]

+VE PNA and AO dropping almost 4 sigma BN,will it get cold?...LOL.What you'd really like to see is a more +ve NAO,this would shift the trough axis further west it would seem anyways

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Strangely enough the 12z EPS actually favors the period after the big storm on the GFS and CMC. Maybe not tha tstrange since the Euro didn't have it, but maybe there's a "split the difference" reality in there. 

Elizabethton as just an example 

[Daniel Boone]

23 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Canadian is a beast too, but of course most of the forum area is missed. so we sit in a light snow/snow hole while there's 12+ inch totals to our north, south, east and west.

Yep. Exactly what we've been fearing might be the Case. Not Debbie downing but so far looking like one of those Winter's. They cause alot of angst for Snow lover's. Hopefully things work out for the better for us.