January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Scottie16]

EPS


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[*Flash*]

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

[Scottie16]

Threads created for this weekends storm.


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[Nash_LSU]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

They both sit on these things until it's obvious. I kind of get NashSevereWX's hesitancy as they are entirely social media based and crowd-funded, and when stuff doesn't go to forecast, they get absolutely hammered. 

[Bigbald]

My goodness, 12z Euro Ai, CMC, GFS have the 2nd system coming into focus next wednesday.

[brewman22001]

🫡


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Cash out!! I’ll take it!!


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[Shocker0]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

It was a ton of ice along the 40 corridor, I remember Crossville was devastated. I got several inches of sleet and snow. (It may have been a different year but I think it was 2010)

The terrible Crossville Ice Storm was 2/21/15.

January 29-30, 2010 Crossville got a decent bit of ice (due to a warm nose) on top of about 5-6" of snow, but nothing at all like 2015.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

 NashSevere never goes against OHX,you practically never have any discrepancy between the two

[ladyjmayo]

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

I am SHOCKED that MRX already seems to be on board. They usually downplay it up until about 2 days out. 

[Carvers Gap]

I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range.  This forum had this window from way out there.  Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax, go pick up your long ranger awards).  The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high.   Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15.  The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16.  Pretty incredible for a that model or any model.  Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.  

[Carvers Gap]

I am just digging back through my images archives.  Here are some good ones.  (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days).....

Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run.  It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas!  The AIFS hit it at 360.  The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights.  The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image.  Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective.  The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I know we are all focuses on this upcoming weekend...but the 18z AIGFS and GFS absolutely bury most of the forum area after next weekend.

[tnweathernut]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am just digging back through my images archives.  Here are some good ones.  (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days).....

Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run.  It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas!  The AIFS hit it at 360.  The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights.  The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image.  Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective.  The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.

 

This is a really good post.  Might want to throw this in the storm thread.  If we see a widespread snowstorm this weekend, that’s the thread we will be searching for 5-10 years from now.  

[Jed33]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range.  This forum had this window from way out there.  Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax go pick up your long ranger awards).  The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high.   Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15.  The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16.  Pretty incredible for a that model or any model.  Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.  

Man I have really enjoyed following along with everyone here in Canada! This place is just so unbelievably beautiful though it’s hard to describe! They have had a record start to the snowfall season here,  it has dwindled down recently. Still way better than the US West though. I will do my best to bring it back with me-been thinking that it could look just about like it does here (minus the huge mtns of course). I like the fact that the AI and OP runs seem to be closer together now. Hopefully we can all reel in a big snow and avoid the ice! 

[Carvers Gap]

Need a break from analyzing the growing potential of a weekend winter storm?  So do I.  Here is some long range stuff....

Feb 2-7....looks like we get a break and a WELCOME warmup.  We may need it.  Here are 30 day maps from the Euro Weeklies mean and control today.  The other is the CFSv2 from lunch.  

There is a good chance that Feb 2-7th is halftime for winter.  The Euro Weeklies control has two more substantial cold shots embedded.   One is at d20-27.  The 500 pattern again looks ripe for February.  I have listed Feb7-March7 as the next possible big window.  This runs a little bit against overall Nina climatology, but I bet you can find a group of La Nina winters which have a small cluster of very cold Februarys.  In fact, this might well be a Nino pattern beginning to flex just a little.  

Nice EPO, NAO, AO block.  Again, this is how you trap cold air under a block and send it southward.  Precip during this time frame looks seasonal, and I would doubt this would be a dry time as climatology favors increasingly wet weather as we slowly approach spring.  

As for spring....man, it looks way out there as of this writing.  Now that could change, but there are some signs winter may linger this year well into March.

If this pans out, Larry Cosgrove put together a gem of a seasonal forecast.  Uncanny.  I don't think wx modeling can outrun the human mind - yet!

 

[Carvers Gap]

With 12 days still to be inputed, TRI is one +3.3 after that warmup to start the month.  Lows have been quiet cold this month.  The interesting thing will be whether we can erase the +3.3, and I think that will likely occur.  The chances for January to finish BN(maybe well below) are quite high, especially considering that today will almost certainly be well BN and added to the list tomorrow.  Pretty amazing to see a reversal on the table after all of that warm weather.  By the end of January, Dec/Jan may well average below normal for temps...even with the huge post Christmas chinook.

[nrgjeff]

Models lost the Jan 29 storm. Hints are there around Feb 1. Maybe they'll find that Miller A again.

Weeklies look cold most of Feb. -AO is noted but Europe will get a break. Fine, we'll take it over here. Just not ice!