January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Scottie16]

EPS


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[*Flash*]

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

[Scottie16]

Threads created for this weekends storm.


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[Nash_LSU]

1 minute ago, *Flash* said:

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

They both sit on these things until it's obvious. I kind of get NashSevereWX's hesitancy as they are entirely social media based and crowd-funded, and when stuff doesn't go to forecast, they get absolutely hammered. 

[Bigbald]

My goodness, 12z Euro Ai, CMC, GFS have the 2nd system coming into focus next wednesday.

[brewman22001]

🫡


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Cash out!! I’ll take it!!


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[Shocker0]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

It was a ton of ice along the 40 corridor, I remember Crossville was devastated. I got several inches of sleet and snow. (It may have been a different year but I think it was 2010)

The terrible Crossville Ice Storm was 2/21/15.

January 29-30, 2010 Crossville got a decent bit of ice (due to a warm nose) on top of about 5-6" of snow, but nothing at all like 2015.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

 NashSevere never goes against OHX,you practically never have any discrepancy between the two

[ladyjmayo]

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

The hesitancy of NWS-Nashville and NashSevereWx...I don't get it. Their downplaying of the weekend event is irking me. 

I am SHOCKED that MRX already seems to be on board. They usually downplay it up until about 2 days out. 

[Carvers Gap]

I like seeing which models sniffed this out at range.  This forum had this window from way out there.  Just looking at some posts(Jed and Jax go pick up your long ranger awards).  The hapless and much maligned and lowly GFS nailed this window at full range(pretty sure 384!), including the big high.   Ensembles from all models also hit this at almost d15.  The GFS has historically had some skill(or is it a broke clock is right 2x a day) at d16.  Pretty incredible for a that model or any model.  Honestly, I am intrigued that it was able to due that given its struggles this winter.  

[Carvers Gap]

I am just digging back through my images archives.  Here are some good ones.  (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days).....

Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run.  It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas!  The AIFS hit it at 360.  The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights.  The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image.  Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective.  The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I know we are all focuses on this upcoming weekend...but the 18z AIGFS and GFS absolutely bury most of the forum area after next weekend.

[tnweathernut]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am just digging back through my images archives.  Here are some good ones.  (BTW, the 18z GFS buries the forum over the next 16 days).....

Now you know why I like the Euro Weeklies control run.  It potentially(if this storm verifies) hit the Jan 25th time frame from 30 days out - the day after Christmas!  The AIFS hit it at 360.  The GFS hit it earlier that the image, but its 288 map is uncanny with possibly near perfect BN heights.  The EPS absolutely nailed the d10-15 over-running window - I just didn't post that image.  Hopefully, this gives us some historical reference as we look back at what worked and what didn't from a LR modeling perspective.  The GEPS was probably the first ensemble to really stick and hold w/ the overall look at 500.

 

This is a really good post.  Might want to throw this in the storm thread.  If we see a widespread snowstorm this weekend, that’s the thread we will be searching for 5-10 years from now.