Bigbald Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago At 240 on CMC that lobe of -35 temps is heading east with a gigantic snow cover in place. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Turn on the hot donuts sign. New washer is working. Got my run in, and my coffee. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Bigbald said: At 240 on CMC that lobe of -35 temps is heading east with a gigantic snow cover in place. Yes. that is how to do it. @Daniel Boone, that is old school right there. "International Falls cold" was normally a precursor of good things here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I sure hope this is because we are getting better data. The beginning of this window is still about 7 days out...but this trough amplification looks like it means business. The AIFS EURO is less enthused, but still has some interesting events d10-15. The good thing is that models "might be" recognizing the MJO window that is seen on CPC along w/ the climatology of recent years which is to send severe cold into the nation's mid-section during La Nina during late January. I doubt it is this extreme but 40 degree departures below normal during our two coldest weeks of the year..... Keep that ice away from Middle TN! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said: Keep that ice away from Middle TN! Yeah, man. I don't wan't any part of that...but the wx pattern is honking for over-running with that gradient. The thing that has concerned me for a bit is ice which is then followed by extreme cold. I saw that happen once in the Piedmont. @Met1985might be able to comment on that. Folks were dangerously (CO poisoning risk) bringing their grills into their homes. If we want winter storms, we need that gradient a bit further south still as it could gradually drift north. OTH, if models are just now getting a good handle on this...tornado alley could get ice and snow. Need to see a few more runs, BUT modeling has already kind of circled this timeframe as one to watch. If forced to forecast it now, I would say southern KY is gonna get hammered. I just don't know about the rest of the forum. But the cold has been very consistent on ensembles - very consistent for this time frame for the entire area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, man. I don't wan't any part of that...but the wx pattern is honking for over-running with that gradient. The thing that has concerned me for a bit is ice which is then followed by extreme cold. I saw that happen once in the Piedmont. @Met1985might be able to comment on that. Folks were dangerously (CO poisoning risk) bringing their grills into their homes. If we want winter storms, we need that gradient a bit further south still as it could gradually drift north. OTH, if models are just now getting a good handle on this...tornado alley could get ice and snow. Need to see a few more runs, BUT modeling has already kind of circled this timeframe as one to watch. If forced to forecast it now, I would say southern KY is gonna get hammered. I just don't know about the rest of the forum. But the cold has been very consistent on ensembles - very consistent for this time frame for the entire area. Yea, that is rough having an ice storm and losing power and then having extreme cold, plays havoc also with people working to reconnect everyone I would imagine. Your post doesnt make me feel alot better, not too far from southern KY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I went out to get lunch and I see the Euro just full sent it too. There was a time not so long ago though, that CMC, Euro, and GFS all liked this weekend. What has pushed the boundary so far south on today's 12z runs? Trend on the Euro: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Let me try that gif trend again, I'm having gif trouble today, may need to make an appointment for that 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago All three 12z ensembles have this window at 500. And this isn't event remotely the first run where they have had this. I think the deterministic models are just now catching on. Ensembles have been leading the way on this. I grabbed a 7d most opportunistic over-running window for each model. I have attached the 10d temp mean for d3-13 on the Euro(still hasn't finished running). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, man. I don't wan't any part of that...but the wx pattern is honking for over-running with that gradient. The thing that has concerned me for a bit is ice which is then followed by extreme cold. I saw that happen once in the Piedmont. @Met1985might be able to comment on that. Folks were dangerously (CO poisoning risk) bringing their grills into their homes. If we want winter storms, we need that gradient a bit further south still as it could gradually drift north. OTH, if models are just now getting a good handle on this...tornado alley could get ice and snow. Need to see a few more runs, BUT modeling has already kind of circled this timeframe as one to watch. If forced to forecast it now, I would say southern KY is gonna get hammered. I just don't know about the rest of the forum. But the cold has been very consistent on ensembles - very consistent for this time frame for the entire area. Yeah it's been some years but I remember that ice storm caused a ton off power outages and downed power lines across a large part of the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah it's been some years but I remember that ice storm caused a ton off power outages and downed power lines across a large part of the region. I recall a bad one here in 1994 but I think you guys in East TN have had a few since then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just looking at ensembles. Somebody out west is saying, "Every time we get an NAO, it hooks into the PNA ridge." Throwing shade at the one billion times the NAO has hooked into the eastern ridge. I really have no idea what happens when the NAO hooks into a PNA ridge, but guessing that is a good storm signal? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Turn on the hot donuts sign. New washer is working. Got my run in, and my coffee. SUGAR HIGHS INCOMING! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Let me try that gif trend again, I'm having gif trouble today, may need to make an appointment for that If this subforum is Hogwarts, you, sir, are Gif-findor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: SUGAR HIGHS INCOMING! Guess my severe thinking next weekend is getting crushed..lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Life moves pretty fast. -Ferris Bueller Rain Snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 58 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yes. that is how to do it. @Daniel Boone, that is old school right there. "International Falls cold" was normally a precursor of good things here. Yep, that was where we looked at back in the great Winter's of our Youth. If it was the " Ice box" we were confident as usually that air from that area made a direct shot our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said: I recall a bad one here in 1994 but I think you guys in East TN have had a few since then. Feb 9-11, 1994 February 1994 Ice Storm 0.5-3 inches ice (1-2" Plateau, Knoxville), 500,000+ outages (weeks-long), $50M damage. Bad one here too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Feb 9-11, 1994 February 1994 Ice Storm 0.5-3 inches ice (1-2" Plateau, Knoxville), 500,000+ outages (weeks-long), $50M damage. Bad one here too. Yea, my grandparents were out for over two weeks; in their upper 80's they thought that they would never again have to cook on a wood stove, until that storm changed that thinking. I remember how everything was so heavy laden with ice, then, about 6 or so that morning it was like a front of some kind came through because the wind picked up, which is what really did the damage. To this day, this time of year, you can still pick out areas that had heavier ice because about 15' down on the trees it looks like they were all pruned back, I guess in a way they were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Feb 9-11, 1994 February 1994 Ice Storm 0.5-3 inches ice (1-2" Plateau, Knoxville), 500,000+ outages (weeks-long), $50M damage. Bad one here too. I can only remember one really bad Ice storm growing up. It hit in the middle of the day while I was in school. It came out of nowhere and half of us kids were stuck at school until up in the day. February 94 definitely fits that's timeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago Its kind of amazing how quick the models snapped onto the 12z solution. Wonder how/why models went from all the variance to locking in like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Its kind of amazing how quick the models snapped onto the 12z solution. Wonder how/why models went from all the variance to locking in like that. SO much chaos in the northern stream. Kick some of that out and it's almost automatically going to help modeling produce more consistently. JMO. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 43 minutes ago Share Posted 43 minutes ago 52 minutes ago, *Flash* said: If this subforum is Hogwarts, you, sir, are Gif-findor. Every six hours we pull out the sorting hat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago Sometimes the ECMWF acts like he who shall not be named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted 13 minutes ago Share Posted 13 minutes ago 57 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Life moves pretty fast. -Ferris Bueller Rain Snow I mean...they could extend that purple line southwest by 50 miles. Wouldn't hurt at this range. Smh. Also, fun/random fact: Ferris Bueller's best friend...his name is Cameron Frye (played by Alan Ruck), which so happens to be my name, just without the 'e' on the end. While I was born the same year the movie came out, contrary to local conspiracies, I wasn't named after the character. 0:34 in the clip below gets me every time... https://youtu.be/LOMO_eSGcU4?si=38NB8nmLgHGa8XN6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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