26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still would pin hopes to many double-digit totals....

No euro probably has the right idea Large 4-8” swath call it a day. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still would pin hopes to many double-digit totals....

Most likely not…but this system has grown in size /coverage quite a bit from the earlier ideas. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro is not as generous 

Map? That was one of the more generous models yesterday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Man do we pray! 

Wow....man, that is far north-

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow....man, that is far north-

And that’s a SNE special in that depiction. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice to wake up seeing overnight guidance hold and come in a bit more robust in some cases.  Pretty impressing fronto being modeled as has been discussed. 06Z NAM hung over and had a dirty Bloody Mary this AM.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Most likely not…but this system has grown in size /coverage quite a bit from the earlier ideas. 

Yea, I just think it's wise to modulate expectations based on past experiences with systems of this ilk, rather than every permutation of model consensus.

I'm annoyed that I caved on first call and had everything so far SW instead of sticking to my guns it would move north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No euro probably has the right idea Large 4-8” swath call it a day. 

We always see a few rouge OP runs trying to up the ante on these deals, but we know that they are.....dynamics are really limited to a relatively short window. 10"+ amounts are very isolated if they do occur. 

[dendrite]

Put the kuchie down

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Put the kuchie down

IDK...10:1 on the EURO has no one over 5"...I feel like a bit of a blend is in order, at least.....I am fine with the EURO Kuchie, but ignore the GFS product.

[40/70 Benchmark]

No one is getting 12".

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks like a nice moderate event for many.  
Still planning on 1-2” here

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wunderground app thing is spitting out 3-5” here.  lol 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is getting 12".

Someone in the Hudson valley/out that way  may.  

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is getting 12".

No one in most of SNE(save for the SW half of CT), was even getting a snowstorm 24-36 hrs ago.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Someone in the Hudson valley/out that way  may.  

Even there, very isolated if so...but I was referring to SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

No one in most of SNE(save for the SW half of CT, was even getting a snowstorm 24-36 hrs ago.   

Irrelevant.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Irrelevant.

Not really though…but we can disagree. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Confluence backed off a bit and it's coming further north, but the characterization of the storm hasn't changed....it's a moderate system abutting strong confluence...if anything, it's attenuating on approach.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Not really though…but we can disagree. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Confluence backed off a bit and it's coming further north, but the characterization of the storm hasn't changed....it's a moderate system abutting strong confluence...if anything, it's attenuating on approach.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

All of JD's booze and food on me at the next GTG if anyone in SNE gets 12".

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK...10:1 on the EURO has no one over 5"...I feel like a bit of a blend is in order, at least.....I am fine with the EURO Kuchie, but ignore the GFS product.

The main push of WAA forcing is well to our SW. Some of the models have some mid level hangback lighter precip even up to here. There could be some fluff factor to that, but the whole profile is pretty cold so you have to be careful about the kuchie getting out of control.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of JD's booze and food on me at the next GTG if anyone in SNE gets 12".

Lol…I don’t think I’m getting 12”…I think my point is, this has turned into what looks to be a significant region wide event.  That was not the case just a very short time ago. 
 

My posts from the first page of this threat, mentioned all any of us needed, was incremental shifts over the next 2 days…and that’s what has happened. Especially for those EOR, and beyond.  That’s all. Enjoy.  I know I’m gonna. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looking at the 06z Euro and the more I look at it, the more excited I am for some folks.

850/700mb closed off circulations as low is coming out of the GL. If those can maintain that for several hours longer as they slam into this arctic boundary, we may see some pretty hefty totals. Will also help those further east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The main push of WAA forcing is well to our SW. Some of the models have some mid level hangback lighter precip even up to here. There could be some fluff factor to that, but the whole profile is pretty cold so you have to be careful about the kuchie getting out of control.

No, I hear that....I get the limitations, as I was just saying to Wolfie, but I do think a 5" cap is a bit stringent...EURO is a hair light on QPF IMHO, but yea...toss the GFS 12" clown-kuchie to Mars.

[KTBFFH1905]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…I don’t think I’m getting 12”…I think my point is, this has turned into what looks to be a significant region wide event.  That was not the case just a very short time ago. 
 

My posts from the first page of this threat, mentioned all any of us needed, was incremental shifts over the next 2 days…and that’s what has happened. Especially for those EOR, and beyond.  That’s all. Enjoy.  I know I’m gonna. 

Exactly! 3 days ago it just looked like a Southern CT event. It's now looking great for a lot of us. I just got an Arctic Cat Z120 running for the kids, should be a fun Saturday.

[moneypitmike]

I'm tempted to head down to PVD for what might be 3" down there  Certainly nothing happening here at Pit2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…I don’t think I’m getting 12”…I think my point is, this has turned into what looks to be a significant region wide event.  That was not the case just a very short time ago. 
 

My posts from the first page of this threat, mentioned all any of us needed, was incremental shifts over the next 2 days…and that’s what has happened. Especially for those EOR, and beyond.  That’s all. Enjoy.  I know I’m gonna. 

Right....these are qualitative changes, though...not quantitative. The storm is getting further north, but the mechanics of it are the same, thus we have the same limitations....all I meant. Hey, I hope you are right and there are widespread 10"+ amounts...I just don't see it right now.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I hear that....I get the limitations, as I was just saying to Wolfie, but I do think a 5" cap is a bit stringent...EURO is a hair light on QPF IMHO, but yea...toss the GFS 12" clown-kuchie to Mars.

I actually agree with you Ray. EURO QPF does look a bit underdone. Not order of magnitudes treated but I could see another .1-.2 tacked on further north and east of what’s currently modeled.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....these are qualitative changes, though...not quantitative. The storm is getting further north, but the mechanics of it are the same, thus we have the same limitations....all I meant. Hey, I hope you are right and there are widespread 10"+ amounts...I just don't see it right now.

It’s all good my man. Give me 6-8” and I’ll be very satisfied.  Just wish most of it was coming during daylight hours…but I’m not complaining.