Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[MJO812]

Eps 

[The 4 Seasons]

That Euro run was pretty sweet for the LHV into SW CT and here. 

[SnoSki14]

Biggest thing to watch out for is the warm nose. Could result in more sleet than people expect. Not sure exactly where that sets up yet. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That Euro run was pretty sweet for the LHV into SW CT and here. 

Low pressure looks the same. The expansion of the precip is more. 

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[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Low pressure looks the same. The expansion of the precip is more. 

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yea its been pretty consistent overall last few cycles

[MJO812]

Upton snow map

[MJO812]

Mike masco likes 4-6 for NYC but can see 6-10 if it remains all snow.

He likes 6-10 for interior NY

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Upton snow map

Wow that's bullish by mt holly. Riding the gfs it seems

[RU848789]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow that's bullish by mt holly. Riding the gfs it seems

No, riding the NBM, as per their discussion.  

[BoulderWX]

Wow…I would take any of the outputs from overnight and this morning. This feels too good to be true. 

merry Christmas Eve to all celebrating! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

41 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Upton snow map

Id probably bump the totals up in the lower Hudson valley and sw ct, euro and gfs both indicate more there.  Also not so confident about central jersey getting 6 inches here. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Biggest thing to watch out for is the warm nose. Could result in more sleet than people expect. Not sure exactly where that sets up yet. 

Great NWS graphic on their thinking on that; 6Z models, overall, seem like they'd push that transition zone to the NE...

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

No, riding the NBM, as per their discussion.  

Is there a site we can see the NBM?

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That Euro run was pretty sweet for the LHV into SW CT and here. 

Definitely the best model output for here in SW CT. However I believe its still the most northern solution of the major models.

[EastonSN+]

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

No, riding the NBM, as per their discussion.  

We made this mistake on the storm on Tuesday…swap the snowfall amounts for NYC and Yonkers

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

We made this mistake on the storm on Tuesday…swap the snowfall amounts for NYC and Yonkers

Absolutely. The models were too cold  by at least a few degrees for the storm yesterday. That made much of the coastal plane and immediate New York City Metro area with no accumulation at all. For the last storm two weeks ago, we know the models once again we’re too cold by at least a few degrees in New York City, so even though this surrounding areas had a significant snowfall, New York City was limited to only 3 to 6 inches. I would not be surprised if the cold air is once again being over estimated with this storm, and we know that the north trend probably hasn’t stopped either. I’d expect a significant amount of sleet and mixing up past New York City.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Absolutely. The models were too cold  by at least a few degrees for the storm yesterday. That made much of the coastal plane and immediate New York City Metro area with no accumulation at all. For the last storm two weeks ago, we know the models once again we’re too cold by at least a few degrees in New York City, so even though this surrounding areas had a significant snowfall, New York City was limited to only 3 to 6 inches. I would not be surprised if the cold air is once again being over estimated with this storm, and we know that the north trend probably hasn’t stopped either. I’d expect a significant amount of sleet and mixing up past New York City.

This time the cold air will be in place. The other storm the cold air was coming in after the precipitation started. 

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Id probably bump the totals up in the lower Hudson valley and sw ct, euro and gfs both indicate more there.  Also not so confident about central jersey getting 6 inches here. 

More could fall after 7am up there I'm guessing

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

This time the cold air will be in place. The other storm the cold air was coming in after the precipitation started. 

Yes it's low to mid 20s so even if its busts by a few degrees its still 27 or 28 when the precip gets going. Concern is the mid layers and how far ne that warm air gets. The models tend to underdo that. I'll expect mixing up to 78 sw of nyc. But hopefully after at least 3 to 5

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yes it's low to mid 20s so even if its busts by a few degrees its still 27 or 28 when the precip gets going. Concern is the mid layers and how far ne that warm air gets. The models tend to underdo that. I'll expect mixing up to 78 sw of nyc. But hopefully after at least 3 to 5

Agreed. I am not seeing much NW movement of the models, just movement of the heaviest snow which unfortunately is a fairly narrow band.

[bluewave]

The Euro is showing this coming in as a wall of heavy snow scenario where the best spots for banding can pick up 3-6” of snow in 3-4 hours with excellent rates.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is showing this coming in as a wall of snow scenario where the best spots for banding can pick up 3-6” of snow in 3-4 hours with excellent rates.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if temperatures dropped to low 20's with those dynamics! saturday morning will look and feel like north pole

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

We made this mistake on the storm on Tuesday…swap the snowfall amounts for NYC and Yonkers

Not sure what your point is.  The NBM and NWS maps for yesterday were quite good, except for NYC proper, where it was slightly warmer and little accumulation occurred.  I'm 25 miles SW of CPK along 95 and got 0.8" vs. a 0.5" prediction - the only reason I can think of why NYC didn't get accumulation was the heat island effect.  

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure what your point is.  The NBM and NWS maps for yesterday were quite good, except for NYC proper, where it was slightly warmer and little accumulation occurred.  I'm 25 miles SW of CPK along 95 and got 0.8" vs. a 0.5" prediction - the only reason I can think of why NYC didn't get accumulation was the heat island effect.  

When the precip started even the central Jersey shore was 34 degrees while Manhattan was showing 37 so yeah definitely was the HIE.

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure what your point is.  The NBM and NWS maps for yesterday were quite good, except for NYC proper, where it was slightly warmer and little accumulation occurred.  I'm 25 miles SW of CPK along 95 and got 0.8" vs. a 0.5" prediction - the only reason I can think of why NYC didn't get accumulation was the heat island effect.  

I work on the 9th floor of my building in lower Manhattan. You could look out the window and see snow at that height. Albeit certainly mixed with rain. On the ground it was just rain. I’ve witnessed this a few times. Definitely heat island. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I work on the 9th floor of my building in lower Manhattan. You could look out the window and see snow at that height. Albeit certainly mixed with rain. On the ground it was just rain. I’ve witnessed this a few times. Definitely heat island. 

What is really unfortunate is the fact that the HEI is more extreme than ever, therefore CPK is no longer a good central benchmark for the tri state area and IMO can no longer be leveraged when comparing past snowfall to today.