Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Ruin said:

yeah I forget who mentioned it but yep isnt that the big storm they called for and we just go hours of the radar showing snow and it didnt do shit?

That was me multiple times. I was corrected by several here (correctly) that the storm isn't the same. However, I stand by my assertion that the pattern is. And that is what is behind these negative changes we're seeing.

[Ruin]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That was me multiple times. I was corrected by several here (correctly) that the storm isn't the same. However, I stand by my assertion that the pattern is. And that is what is behind these negative changes we're seeing.

yeah it just like how can you be that wrong model was you showed like a mega snow a foot plus only to get nothing. That storm is why I started hating models and see how much bs they spew 

[Storm Clouds]

At what time do we call this storm a bust this evening if it’s still not snowing lol? 

[Itstrainingtime]

The gradient on the latest HRRR really brings back Boxing Day nightmares. Still over a foot just east of the Lanco line.

[MAG5035]

Current obs. 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR continues the slow crawl back (see gif below).  Has been pretty consistent in us switching to all snow around the 5pm timeframe.  Then we get what we get from there.  Should at least see some decent rates during the dark hours.

 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Current obs. 

 

Hey you at least have snow in the yard. Only snow here is parking lot plow mountains. 

[pasnownut]

49 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

All you can do is laugh!  What's becoming pretty clear is that a subsidence screw zone is likely to setup somewhere between say @Itstrainingtime and @CarlislePaWx.  Question is exactly where but you reside right in the middle of that swath soooooo not great haha. 

You forgot to include pasnownut   

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just now, pasnownut said:

You forgot to include pasnownut   

Haha if the screw zone makes it all the way to you god help us all.  The folks far enough across the river may actually end up doing better than us if that norlun sets up over them.  There will still be some fun to be had tonight.   

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha if the screw zone makes it all the way to you god help us all.  The folks far enough across the river may actually end up doing better than us if that norlun sets up over them.  There will still be some fun to be had tonight.   

Yeah looks like the fun is starting below us and coastal is starting to cool the column. Should get going in next hour r so. 

[MAG5035]

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That was me multiple times. I was corrected by several here (correctly) that the storm isn't the same. However, I stand by my assertion that the pattern is. And that is what is behind these negative changes we're seeing.

Boxing Day 2010 didn’t have the inverted trough and had more of an actual sharp precip gradient from nothing to a bunch. This system has plenty of precip thrown back into central PA right now. Temps are the issue, I said a couple times the last few days temps and rates were going to be a key thing for I-81 corridor and NW. Unfortunately I didn’t expect surface temps to be warm enough to actually cause a lot of this stuff to be rain in the Sus Valley lower elevations today.. I was more worried about rates.

That puts more reliance to make it up on the direct banding from the coastal as it winds up and eventually turns things over as we get towards this evening. The big change there is the formerly aggressive guidance bringing the low in up close is now quickly jumping it ENE over or perhaps just SE of the benchmark. Which actually would be another difference from Boxing Day haha. That tracked straight up well inside the Benchmark to the edge of Cape Cod. The low kicking east faster is going to reduce the time the Sus Valley (esp York/Lancaster) can get any stronger bands from the coastal. 

 

 

 

 

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Boxing Day 2010 didn’t have the inverted trough and had more of an actual sharp precip gradient from nothing to a bunch. This system has plenty of precip thrown back into central PA right now. Temps are the issue, I said a couple times the last few days temps and rates were going to be a key thing for I-81 corridor and NW. Unfortunately I didn’t expect surface temps to be warm enough to actually cause a lot of this stuff to be rain in the Sus Valley lower elevations today.. I was more worried about rates.

That puts more reliance to make it up on the direct banding from the coastal as it winds up and eventually turns things over as we get towards this evening. The big change there is the formerly aggressive guidance bringing the low in up close is now quickly jumping it ENE over or perhaps just SE of the benchmark. Which actually would be another difference from Boxing Day haha. That tracked straight up well inside the Benchmark to the edge of Cape Cod. The low kicking east faster is going to reduce the time the Sus Valley (esp York/Lancaster) can get any stronger bands from the coastal. 

 

 

 

 

temps are a big problem but also the precip intensity is very light vs what it was suppose to be this allowed the temps to get so high. I got down to 28 last night at 2am only to woke up at 6 to 33 as normal the clouds allowed it to warm up. If the precip would of been at the rate they were calling for we would of been snow all ready hours ago. 

[canderson]

The clipper Tuesday very well will being more snow than this storm for Harrisburg. 

[WmsptWx]

Yeah the temps are not helping. I haven't measured in several hours (first measurement was right after Hughes sent the flappy-heads home sad) but it doesn't look like much more has accumulated and it's been snowing all day.

[Blizzard of 93]

If anyone wants to cheer up a bit before whatever happens tonight, go check out the 12z Euro full 15 day run. It shows multiple Winter storm chances including a Clipper Tuesday night & another system Thursday pm that is snow to a mix this run. Then more winter storm chances the first week of March.

[WX-PA]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

The clipper Tuesday very well will being more snow than this storm for Harrisburg. 

no it won't we'll probaby still get 4 inches from this

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

The clipper Tuesday very well will being more snow than this storm for Harrisburg. 

Wouldn’t that b a kick in da kahunas. 

[Ruin]

im sorry im not gonna buy any models saying what ever lol. if they cant get this storm right 12-24 hours out how can I even think they can get a few days to a few weeks out 

[Ruin]

47 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

At what time do we call this storm a bust this evening if it’s still not snowing lol? 

yeah pretty much a major bust 

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, Ruin said:

yeah pretty much a major bust 

be careful the forum will call you a troll for voicing your opinion lol

[Storm Clouds]

It’s snowing south of us and east of this lmao can’t make this shit up…

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m really happy that I’m using the ignore feature… if no one quotes them, I’ll never see the posts, lol!

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Storm Clouds said:

It’s snowing south of us and east of this lmao can’t make this shit up…

It’s all about rates, as soon as we get under good bands, we too will snow.

[Ruin]

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

be careful the forum will call you a troll for voicing your opinion lol

pretty much all rdy do because I model hate because of things like today that happen. they dont like me calling out how shitty models are. they fail to understand Im a snow lover but also understand how shitty these models can be 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

be careful the forum will call you a troll for voicing your opinion lol

Shut up. You don't voice your opinion. You only reguratate every bad model run and offer literally nothing else. I am one of many that are beyond sick of it.

[Subliminal87]

Live in Mechanicsburg but work in Montgomery county.  
 

currently have a blizzard warning here.  
 

almost called off of work today too. Glad I didn’t. I hope I can manage to drive home in the rain lol

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, Subliminal87 said:

Live in Mechanicsburg but work in Montgomery county.  
 

currently have a blizzard warning here.  
 

almost called off of work today too. Glad I didn’t. I hope I can manage to drive home in the rain lol

That is an insane drive to work.

[WmsptWx]

Guys, 

 

Trainer just told somebody to "shut up." That's how much negativity and bullshit has infiltrated this forum. 

 

This place is becoming the MA thread. I am once again Campaigning @sauss06for Moderator. 

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Ruin said:

im sorry im not gonna buy any models saying what ever lol. if they cant get this storm right 12-24 hours out how can I even think they can get a few days to a few weeks out 

Have you ever bought into any model?  The constant negative undertones are tiring…

[dcfox1]

On the bright side the dry gap over northern York and Lancaster Co appears to be filling in here though it is a light mix.