Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, HBGCPA10 said:

Definitely won't during the day, maybe at night if it snows hard enough.

Maybe the interstates, but secondary & back roads will be covered. Rates usually overcome borderline temperatures. We are still in February…

[Mount Joy Snowman]

36 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

What are we defining as a struggle? Again, we aren’t getting the 12+ totals to our east. But 72 hours ago we weren’t getting anything, except maybe a phantom IVT that’s impossible to pin down with any accuracy. I think 3-6” is a huge win. 

Struggle as he alluded to in his post, that being Harrisburg struggling to accumulate during the day with light rates and marginal temps, which I think is a completely fair take.  The city can struggle in marginal events with its low-lying location and UHI effects, which is why I was careful to say "Harrisburg proper".  I've worked there for 20 years and have seen it firsthand.  Lord knows @canderson reminds us of it regularly haha.  There is no doubt they could win with nice rates or in the overnight bands but therein lies the question, will they get them?  I don't think anybody truly knows but completely agree 3-6" would be a nice event.   

[Blizzard of 93]

Good post from @RU848789 in the NYC thread that includes the latest NBM & info on the snow ratio factors it uses.

 

A few commnts on the NBM. Some think the high amounts are all due to the GFS/NAM being part of the blend and that's partly true, but snow ratios are also part of it as can be seen by just looking at the QPF vs. snowfall maps, as there's nowhere with >2.4" of QPF, but many locations getting >24" of snow even along the coast and inland with maybe 1.5" of QPF. The NBM table above says they use a combo of max temp aloft (Kuchera, I assume) and the Cobb method for generating ratios. So those 10:1 maps are likely underestimates.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 15z NBM & 15z NBM Para. 
I would be thrilled with the range in the Harrisburg area of 7 to 11 if that verified.

[GrandmasterB]

This should make 3-6 very doable. 

[WmsptWx]

Interesting Waynesboro spike in QPF there..

[Superstorm]

Euro west


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[GrandmasterB]

Stolen from MA. Blizz probably has better maps for us.

[AccuChris]

12z Euro a good bit west from its prior run


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

Stolen from MA. Blizz probably has better maps for us.

This seems like a fairly realistic and doable outcome, one that many of us would be happy with. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro a good bit west from its prior run


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The old school Euro + NAM combo for a good forecast could be in play ?

[canderson]

51 at the house. About to go power wash the garage floor. It’s GORGEOUS out. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

51 at the house. About to go power wash the garage floor. It’s GORGEOUS out. 

It really is.  We're going to walk the dogs and kids.  Nothing better than a beautiful day right before a snowstorm.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z Euro a good bit west from its prior run


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Indeed, 12z Euro is more tucked & stronger when it matters for the LSV.

Decent snow continues into Monday am as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

51 at the house. About to go power wash the garage floor. It’s GORGEOUS out. 

I just brought my trash cans inside our fence. The combo of winds & plowed snow could have sent them into the river by Monday, lol!

[Blizzard of 93]

Great to see the Euro juicing up towards game time.

12z top

6z bottom 

[HBGCPA10]

18 minutes ago, canderson said:

51 at the house. About to go power wash the garage floor. It’s GORGEOUS out. 

Sun is out and we are cooking in 17112

[Blizzard of 93]

From @MillvilleWx moments ago:

ECMWF definitely folded and the 5H progression is great through 00z, then it kicks east-northeast instead of north-northeast like it should on the capture. It's coming into better alignment with other guidance like the GFS and hi-res. It's still a little too dry overall considering the setup, but it's a big shift in the grand scheme and a final fold to how this will materialize. QPF is going to be tough with this one. Our forecast should be on the website now and it's a very sharp gradient from Easton to DC with more east. It's plausible it's too light, but there will be adjustments tonight. Still a general 3-6" for a lot of the region with 5-10" across the M/D from Carroll on east. The norlun trough is a stripe of 6-10" now. That setup is delicate. Updated forecast will be out later. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Great post by @Jake Wx showing the Euro trend since yesterday.

[Superstorm]

Something tells me the upcoming NAM suite will be epic.


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

An updated map from CTP.....

[WX-PA]

NWS fot Dillsburg..Snow and rain tomorrow?..what?..who is showing any rain?..Not the models I see.

[anotherman]

Great post by [mention=23306]Jake Wx[/mention] showing the Euro trend since yesterday.

[AccuChris]

Show time



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[WmsptWx]

Watches expanded westward, ho.

[Itstrainingtime]

"Pappy" (me) has his granddaughter at ZooAmerica this afternoon. What a beautiful day and loving the new guidance! Love being out the day before a snowstorm in shorts!

[canderson]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

"Pappy" (me) has his granddaughter at ZooAmerica this afternoon. What a beautiful day and loving the new guidance! Love being out the day before a snowstorm in shorts!

We are heading there shortly with our friends and their 4 year old, then Troegs for dinner!

[GrandmasterB]

16 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Still a ton of lows west. Almost on the shore! 

[MickeyTim6533]

17 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Something tells me the upcoming NAM suite will be epic.


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when does it run agin?

[Superstorm]

2:35 pm


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