Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[AccuChris]

For fun, 9z SREF mean 10:1 snowfall


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[pasnownut]

57 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

The latest 9z SREF controls of the NMB and ARW are massive changes for the 3z prior run. Wow



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do you have older panels to share?  I'm assuming thats a change in the gooder direction?

[AccuChris]

do you have older panels to share?  I'm assuming thats a change in the gooder direction?

This was the prior run at 03Z; so yeah its better lol


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[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

This was the prior run at 03Z; so yeah its better lol


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wow.  That starts the day off well for forecasters....boy I do not envy them right now (well the ones who are tryin to do it right and not be arrogant and rant - thinkin DT types....dude is eatin lotsa egg off face as of right now).  Waiting for his backpedal post when nooners come out.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 34 with .71” of rain and one hell of a swampy backyard.  I’m off today so I plan on being pretty dialed in for the 12z runs. The kids may have something to say about that but that’s the plan ha. 

[mahantango#1]

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

 

 

storm 2 days out and the US GFS continues to have an epic storm in places where the euro has next to nothing I have no changes on my idea of 6-12 locally 18 DC to Boston, which almost seems like a mid-ground. This model battle should be something GVT officials are looking at. If GFS misses, what good is it? Why spend the money it took to develop this model if it consistently is least accurate vs the major models, though it beats up on the Navy NoGaps and CFSV2 , which is like beating up on a division 2 school if you are Division 1

 

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

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2h

 

 

I will show the method I use for numbers later today You might find it interesting. Will do Bos,NYC, DC, State College and ACY

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM a MUCH better result for the forum.  Great start to 12z.

[mahantango#1]

After today and tomorrow the snow (wha'ts left) on the ground will be gone...except the piles of snow.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

BIG changes.....

[AccuChris]

Hello Newman…12z NAM kuchera


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[Superstorm]

NAM looks much better.

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

NAM looks much better.

as stated earlier, NAM early into storm range often seems lost for a run or 2.  Not surprised at all.  Not saying it is final solution, but its just the NAM doin its NAM thingy

[Mount Joy Snowman]

FWIW, the FV3 at range also spits out a preferred coastal track.

[pawatch]

39 degrees and rain. Not much rain overnight .21”

Appears first line of storms last night was a big miss.

Hows the rivers and the ice? Anybody having any problems yet?

Models are being the models again. You think in this day and age there would be more consistent models…terrible! 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

FWIW, the FV3 at range also spits out a preferred coastal track.

lookin at it now.  Yeah, we'd sign.  wow

[canderson]

Dumb question amnesty: this is no longer technically a Miller B, right? 

[Superstorm]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

lookin at it now.  Yeah, we'd sign.  wow

Yeah, we would!

 

 

[Superstorm]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Dumb question amnesty: this is no longer technically a Miller B, right? 

Still think its a Miller B.

[canderson]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Still think its a Miller B.

Ok gotcha - I’m too dumb to fully grasp the nuances of Bs lol 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Still think its a Miller B.

I was going to say a bit more of a hybrid.  Certainly not a traditional Miller B in the way that we think of it around these parts but you may be right technically.  I'm not entirely clear on the exact criteria for categorizing such things.

[Superstorm]

I was going to say a bit more of a hybrid.  Certainly not a traditional Miller B in the way that we think of it around these parts but you may be right technically.  I'm not entirely clear on the exact criteria for categorizing such things.

Totally agree. I was thinking hybrid Miller B.


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[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

Dumb question amnesty: this is no longer technically a Miller B, right? 

its sorta a hybrid B IMO.  has primary that pops secondary, but its obviously well SE of typical primary up Apps to coastal. 

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I was going to say a bit more of a hybrid.  Certainly not a traditional Miller B in the way that we think of it around these parts but you may be right technically.  I'm not entirely clear on the exact criteria for categorizing such things.

Just posted before scrolling down and seeing your response.

agreed fwiw  

[Superstorm]

We typically think of the Miller Bs that ride up into the OV then transfer to Delmarva.  Those often screw us.  So when someone says Miller B, those are the memories we hang on to.

However, even January, 1996 was a miller B.  More of a hybrid Miller B.

[Jns2183]

Was it the boxing day storm years ago that had everyone but the cape getting next to nothing for days only for it to shift 100 miles the final 20-30 hours obliterating Connecticut conviently after all there tv weatherman had declared it a miss even just a day before?

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[CarlislePaWx]

A very pleasant surprise this morning as I had 0.79" of rain overnight.  Temp has gone nowhere and has been hanging around 36 degrees all night, now up to 37.  Only a few scattered piles of snow remain where I had originally shoveled.  It's another dreary day with overcast skies and cold and damp.  But, fun times are a'comin.

[AccuChris]

12z AI GFS QPF ticked west again


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

GFS a bit weaker and a touch southeast with the best banding but still okay for the forum.  A compromise solution seems to be emerging.

[AccuChris]

12z GFS kuchera


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

It seems like southcentral Jersey is going to be the place to be for this bad boy.  I have a friend who lives in Hammonton, NJ and feel like that could be ground zero.  A general 4-6" for our forum would be a nice event with some boom potential for those of us in eastern areas like Lancaster.