Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 9 here as it looks like a pretty substantial inversion setup last night, with a wide variety of lows around the area.  @Itstrainingtime at one point earlier this morning I was scanning WU and the Maytown airport station near you was at 15 while some station like a mile or two to its west was at 3.  

[ChescoWx]

Today, across multiple sites in Chester County will be the 13th consecutive day with below freezing temperatures. This is already the 3rd longest streak since 1893. These locations should establish a new prolonged cold record on Monday which will be the 17th day. Also, today will be the 20th consecutive day with continuous snow cover. This is the 22nd longest stretch with snow cover since 1893 and our longest streak since the 32 days from January 31, 2021 through March 3, 2021. Our greatest stretch was the 61 days back in 1978 from January 12th through March 13th. We continue with well below normal temperatures through early next week. An arctic cold front crosses the area overnight Friday into Saturday morning likely to bring potentially brief heavy snow squalls with an inch or two of snow possible in spots with briefly poor visibility and driving conditions. Highs for Saturday will occur just before dawn with temperatures then crash into the single digits during the day with wind chills in the minus teens below zero. What a memorable winter this has already been and we still have more than 6 weeks to go!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Summit Snow said:

sued: 12:49 AM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerous wind chills colder than 20 below zero possible.

* WHERE...All of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 30 below zero
could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is
exposed to these temperatures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An arctic front will bring cold air and
strong winds to the region Saturday morning. Below normal
temperatures and blustery winds will result in wind chills
dropping well below zero Saturday morning. Wind chills will remain
below zero through the rest of the weekend.

Im headed to the cabin snowmobiling tonight.  Guess I dont have to worry about trail conditions deteriorating....lol

Sounds BRIISSSKKKK 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Low of 7 in Marysville.

since temp talk has been a topic of late, I paid a little extra attention to digi thermo on ride to work today.  27ish mile trip.  Lowest number 1....highest...13 (730 am).

Thats the variability that many of us know exists when peeps give their backyard readings.  

looks like etown went from 3.9 to 15 in 2 hours.

05	08:56	NW 9	9.00	A Few Clouds	FEW250	15.1	7			70%	4		30.16	1022.0
05	07:56	Calm	9.00	A Few Clouds	FEW250	7	5			91%			30.16	1022.0
05	06:56	Calm	9.00	Fair	CLR	3.9	3.9	18	3	100%			30.16	1022.0

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 9 here as it looks like a pretty substantial inversion setup last night, with a wide variety of lows around the area.  @Itstrainingtime at one point earlier this morning I was scanning WU and the Maytown airport station near you was at 15 while some station like a mile or two to its west was at 3.  

lol.  i just posted a response to Blizz about the same thing.  

Looks like pattern to get active next week, with warm and not white for first event.  Hopng that one sets the table for Blizz's VD weekend event.  Hoping y'all get snowed in w/ your loved ones.

[ChescoWx]

[mahantango#1]

Looks like the high temp. will be in the early morning hours on Saturday. Both the Euro and GFS have temps. near 10 or single digits during the rest of the day. Don't know why NWS is downplaying the winds either as euro and gfs have gusts over 40mph.

[pasnownut]

I'll add that after review of the overnighters, the concensus is that storm 1 looks icy/wet, and there is no consensus for next weekend VD event.  Couple snowyish solutions and couple warm ones.  Op/ens guidance have notable differences at 500.  Need to iron that out till we can get an idea of what n where this goes.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 9 here as it looks like a pretty substantial inversion setup last night, with a wide variety of lows around the area.  @Itstrainingtime at one point earlier this morning I was scanning WU and the Maytown airport station near you was at 15 while some station like a mile or two to its west was at 3.  

I met my son at the Nook this morning for some early hoop action. Driving across Prospect Road from 283 to Washington Boro my car fluctuated between 4 and 21. 

I was surprised to see how low I got last night. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z GFS for next weekend has a snow to mix/rain back to snow long duration scenario for CTP.

Long way to go & many developments still to come in the upcoming days as we continue to track the potential.

Middle of the uprights scenario right there.

Overnight Canadians were friendly to us - certainly looked like it was going to be a flush hit. 

Euro as depicted was very concerning to me. It drove temps into the 40s clear up to Montreal while I basked in the mid 50s during a driving rain storm. That would spell significant concerns along the Susky for ice jam issues...

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

CTP seems to think the clipper does not do anything in Harrisburg. 

par for the clipper course down here in LSV.  We've seen things look good from afar (timewise) only to have things diminish as we get into short range.  Not surprised at all.

 

And one should keep this in mind as we move into a more volatile period w/ NS/SS battling is out and we loose the heavy hand of cold.  Might be a bumpy ride.

[Itstrainingtime]

@canderson - you mentioned yesterday how little CTP was talking about wind potential on Saturday. I see in my forecast this morning that they're mentioning gusts "only" to the low to mid 40s now. Did something happen that in reality will reduce the wind threat? 

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@canderson - you mentioned yesterday how little CTP was talking about wind potential on Saturday. I see in my forecast this morning that they're mentioning gusts "only" to the low to mid 40s now. Did something happen that in reality will reduce the wind threat? 

This morning models have them lower but a good chuck of the Laurels and mountains north will have strong winds to 60 I’d guess. I think MdT sees multiple 50+ gusts overnight Friday thigh midday Saturday   

[Voyager]

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

This morning models have them lower but a good chuck of the Laurels and mountains north will have strong winds to 60 I’d guess. I think MdT sees multiple 50+ gusts overnight Friday thigh midday Saturday   

You'll see 75+

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle...near perfect radiational cooling conditions existed here from sunset through sunrise this morning.  That allowed the temperature to go from a high of 33.1 degrees yesterday afternoon all the way down to zero this morning.  It seems a little weird thinking about rain being possible next week since the persistent cold and snow cover now for 11 days will continue for at least another 4 days.

[Itstrainingtime]

GFS now gives us wintry precip on Wednesday and has lost the VD weekend storm threat. 

[mahantango#1]

Now NWS has wind gusts of 49 for my location on Saturday. Going to be brutal  i hope and pray the power doesn't go out.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Now NWS has wind gusts of 49 for my location on Saturday. Going to be brutal  i hope and pray the power doesn't go out.

They’ll be higher 

[canderson]

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

 

[mahantango#1]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

PAZ019-026>028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-060800-
/O.EXB.KCTP.EC.A.0004.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Sunbury, Gettysburg, Carlisle, Hershey,
Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Chambersburg, State College, Newport,
Mount Union, Lewisburg, York, Williamsport, Shamokin, Lewistown,
Lebanon, Harrisburg, Pottsville, Danville, Lancaster, Berwick,
McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Lock Haven, and Huntingdon
1221 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero
  could result in hypothermia or frostbite if precautions are not
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must go outside, dress in layers. Cover exposed skin to
reduce your risk of frostbite or hypothermia

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

They’ll be higher 

I hope not.

[Yardstickgozinya]

This here is my forged steel ice scraper/chopper that I got at J&W Hardware in Etters. I've also recommended you guys try a six, tine, forged pitchfork like, in my picture.  Obviously I use my chopper for chopping and scraping, but sometimes the pitchfork is the way to go for scraping if the ice is loose, or you have time to wait for magnesium or chloride  to loosen it up. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

I also forgot to mention that some of the roofing spades and shingle removers come in real handy for snow and ice removal. 

[Itstrainingtime]

41 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Now NWS has wind gusts of 49 for my location on Saturday. Going to be brutal  i hope and pray the power doesn't go out.

Yeah my wind gusts were updated to 50 from 43mph earlier. Sigh. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Unfortunately there's no do all end all for ice and compacted snow, if you don't want to completely kill yourself or have it sliding off a spade shaped shovel you need to break it up with something narrow and scoop it up with something wide if you wanna make it easy on yourself. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU ain't playing around with the wind threat:

NW winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will buffet the region on Sat. In addition, temps will plunge into the teens Sat morning with wind chills as low as -15°F throughout the day and -20 to -25°F at night. Exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 10-15 minutes. Roadways may be littered with debris from the high winds, as well. Uninsulated/unprotected pipes may freeze or burst, and widespread power outages are also likely. Stock up on extra water, food, blankets, coats, flashlights and other supplies late this week. Make sure you have a backup generator too. In the event of a power outage, the internal temp of your house may drop to unsafe levels in just 12-24 hours. Finally, fill your vehicle's gas tank to prevent fuel lines from freezing.

[pasnownut]

53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS now gives us wintry precip on Wednesday and has lost the VD weekend storm threat. 

upon review of nooners, its wide open for what will happen next week.  I think the relaxation will give us our first cutter and then force boundary further south for VD event.  Not sure it works out for the weekend event, but several camps being formed.  Ens guidance does lean warmish d7+  so there's that

[canderson]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU ain't playing around with the wind threat:

NW winds of 20-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph will buffet the region on Sat. In addition, temps will plunge into the teens Sat morning with wind chills as low as -15°F throughout the day and -20 to -25°F at night. Exposed skin could develop frostbite in just 10-15 minutes. Roadways may be littered with debris from the high winds, as well. Uninsulated/unprotected pipes may freeze or burst, and widespread power outages are also likely. Stock up on extra water, food, blankets, coats, flashlights and other supplies late this week. Make sure you have a backup generator too. In the event of a power outage, the internal temp of your house may drop to unsafe levels in just 12-24 hours. Finally, fill your vehicle's gas tank to prevent fuel lines from freezing.

I  don’t know why they don’t talk about wind in their disco.  It’s a legit, strong wind storm that’s going to cause problems.