Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I actually got up to 34 yesterday. I think @mahantango#1 @canderson got warmer than I did. I'm already at 28.2 today. (CTP has me reaching 34)

I got home from Florida last Wednesday. Got home and spent time widening the driveway and in process got a good bit of snow on my floormat. That was on Wednesday. Yesterday it finally melted after sitting there for 5 days. The past couple of weeks has been what I dream of going into every winter. I just love the landscape.

Also, I'm really intrigued for next weekend. Way out there still but it seems like there's a lot to be interested in. Maybe the thing I'm liking most is the advertised amount of QPF...if only that can translate to white gold; well, a lot of us would probably stop and give the winter an A right then and there. 

when i left office yesterday at 330 my normal route back to Akron, saw 28 in etown and got to 30 in lititz and akron.  

just checked for verification for you data weenies.  Heres Akrons numbers.

Weather observations for the past three days for

Lancaster, Lancaster Airport

Imperial (Metric)

Date	Time (est)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Relative Humidity	Wind Chill (°F)	Heat Index (°F)	Pressure		Precipitation (in)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour					altimeter (in)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
03	07:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	21.9	12			66%			30.18	1022.7
03	06:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	OVC045	19	12	21	16	74%			30.17	1022.2
03	05:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	BKN050 OVC055	18	12			77%			30.16	1021.8
03	04:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	18	10.9			74%			30.16	1021.7
03	03:53	W 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	21	10			62%			30.16	1021.8
03	02:53	W 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC055	19.9	9			62%			30.16	1021.8
03	01:53	W 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC065	19.9	8.1			60%			30.16	1021.8
03	00:53	W 7	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW075	19	8.1	26.1	17.1	62%	11		30.15	1021.6
02	23:53	W 3	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT090	19	8.1			62%			30.15	1021.6
02	22:53	W 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN120	19	8.1			62%			30.15	1021.6
02	20:53	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	21.9	8.1			55%			30.14	1021.2
02	19:53	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	25	7			46%			30.13	1020.9
02	18:53	W 7	10.00	Fair	CLR	24.1	8.1	30	24.1	50%	17		30.13	1021.1
02	17:53	NW 6	10.00	Fair	CLR	28	7			41%	22		30.12	1020.4
02	16:53	W 12	10.00	Fair	CLR	28.9	9			43%	20		30.1	1019.8
02	15:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	28.9	8.1			41%	20		30.09	1019.5
02	14:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	28.9	9			43%	20		30.09	1019.4
02	13:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	28	10.9			49%	18		30.09	1019.7
02	12:53	NW 14	10.00	Fair	CLR	26.1	10	26.1	12.9	51%	15		30.11	1020.3
02	11:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	25	9			50%	14		30.14	1021.3
02	10:53	NW 18	10.00	Fair	CLR	21.9	8.1			55%	8		30.15	1021.5
02	09:53	W 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	19	7			59%	5		30.15	1021.6
02	08:53	W 14	10.00	Fair	CLR	16	5			62%	3		30.14	1021.1
02	07:53	NW 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	15.1	1.9			56%	-0		30.13	1020.8
02	06:53	W 16	10.00	Fair	CLR	14	-0	19	12.9	53%	-1		30.11	1020.4
02	05:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	15.1	-0			51%	3		30.1	1019.9
02	04:53	W 12	10.00	Fair	CLR	15.1	-0.9			49%	3		30.1	1019.8
02	03:53	NW 15	10.00	Fair	CLR	17.1	-0.9			45%	3		30.08	1019.3
02	02:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	18	-0.9			43%	6		30.07	1018.7
02	01:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	19	-0.9			41%	7		30.05	1018.1
02	00:53	N 14	10.00	Fair	CLR	19	-0.9	24.1	19	41%	6		30.03	1017.6
01	23:53	N 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	21	-2.9			34%	11		30.01	1016.9
01	22:53	NW 9	10.00	Fair	CLR	21	-0.9			38%	11		29.98	1016.0
01	21:53	NW 14 G 21	10.00	Fair	CLR	23	-2			33%	11		29.96	1015.3
01	20:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	24.1	-2			32%

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Yes made it to 35.2 yesterday. Even though it got above freezing the amount of snow melting really occurred on roofs and elevated surfaces. With the ground that cold and frozen before this last snowfall, I guess it will take awhile to melt there.

The sun did some damage on my south-facing yard yesterday, especially at the bottom of the pack. Almost like it was melting "bottom-up". 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

when i left office yesterday at 330 my normal route back to Akron, saw 28 in etown and got to 30 in lititz and akron.  

just checked for verification for you data weenies.  Heres Akrons numbers.

Weather observations for the past three days for

Lancaster, Lancaster Airport

Imperial (Metric)

Date	Time (est)	Wind (mph)	Vis. (mi.)	Weather	Sky Cond.	Temperature (ºF)				Relative Humidity	Wind Chill (°F)	Heat Index (°F)	Pressure		Precipitation (in)
						Air	Dwpt	6 hour					altimeter (in)	sea level (mb)	1 hr	3 hr	6 hr
								Max.	Min.
03	07:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	21.9	12			66%			30.18	1022.7
03	06:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	OVC045	19	12	21	16	74%			30.17	1022.2
03	05:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	BKN050 OVC055	18	12			77%			30.16	1021.8
03	04:53	Calm	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	18	10.9			74%			30.16	1021.7
03	03:53	W 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC050	21	10			62%			30.16	1021.8
03	02:53	W 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC055	19.9	9			62%			30.16	1021.8
03	01:53	W 3	10.00	Overcast	OVC065	19.9	8.1			60%			30.16	1021.8
03	00:53	W 7	10.00	A Few Clouds	FEW075	19	8.1	26.1	17.1	62%	11		30.15	1021.6
02	23:53	W 3	10.00	Partly Cloudy	SCT090	19	8.1			62%			30.15	1021.6
02	22:53	W 3	10.00	Mostly Cloudy	BKN120	19	8.1			62%			30.15	1021.6
02	20:53	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	21.9	8.1			55%			30.14	1021.2
02	19:53	Calm	10.00	Fair	CLR	25	7			46%			30.13	1020.9
02	18:53	W 7	10.00	Fair	CLR	24.1	8.1	30	24.1	50%	17		30.13	1021.1
02	17:53	NW 6	10.00	Fair	CLR	28	7			41%	22		30.12	1020.4
02	16:53	W 12	10.00	Fair	CLR	28.9	9			43%	20		30.1	1019.8
02	15:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	28.9	8.1			41%	20		30.09	1019.5
02	14:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	28.9	9			43%	20		30.09	1019.4
02	13:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	28	10.9			49%	18		30.09	1019.7
02	12:53	NW 14	10.00	Fair	CLR	26.1	10	26.1	12.9	51%	15		30.11	1020.3
02	11:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	25	9			50%	14		30.14	1021.3
02	10:53	NW 18	10.00	Fair	CLR	21.9	8.1			55%	8		30.15	1021.5
02	09:53	W 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	19	7			59%	5		30.15	1021.6
02	08:53	W 14	10.00	Fair	CLR	16	5			62%	3		30.14	1021.1
02	07:53	NW 17	10.00	Fair	CLR	15.1	1.9			56%	-0		30.13	1020.8
02	06:53	W 16	10.00	Fair	CLR	14	-0	19	12.9	53%	-1		30.11	1020.4
02	05:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	15.1	-0			51%	3		30.1	1019.9
02	04:53	W 12	10.00	Fair	CLR	15.1	-0.9			49%	3		30.1	1019.8
02	03:53	NW 15	10.00	Fair	CLR	17.1	-0.9			45%	3		30.08	1019.3
02	02:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	18	-0.9			43%	6		30.07	1018.7
02	01:53	NW 13	10.00	Fair	CLR	19	-0.9			41%	7		30.05	1018.1
02	00:53	N 14	10.00	Fair	CLR	19	-0.9	24.1	19	41%	6		30.03	1017.6
01	23:53	N 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	21	-2.9			34%	11		30.01	1016.9
01	22:53	NW 9	10.00	Fair	CLR	21	-0.9			38%	11		29.98	1016.0
01	21:53	NW 14 G 21	10.00	Fair	CLR	23	-2			33%	11		29.96	1015.3
01	20:53	NW 10	10.00	Fair	CLR	24.1	-2			32%

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot. 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot. 

No worries.  I just know historically some have raised eyebrows in the past, so now I just back up my stuff, so you can raise eyebrows the other way 

I also know that sometimes things run warmer than advertised so i'm guessing that's what some are sharing. 

I posted at ruin a while back that I dont fret over 34 actual vs 31 forecast....unless there is precip fallin....then I'm madder than a hornet.

[pasnownut]

Just looked again, and my forecast for today is 31, not 28 (thats tomorrow).

Yesterday it was showing 33-34 for today.  

Carry on.  Enjoy mood flakes if you get em.  Suns out here.

 

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot. 

Here was etowns warmest from NWS for yesterday.  Just sharing for continuity's sake.

 

02

14:56

NW 12

10.00

Fair

CLR

30.9

8.1

38%

22

30.1

1019.7

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

To be clear, I wasn't doubting you. I was surprised by the amount of difference in temp though. And I'm even more surprised by the discrepancy in your forecast high for today compared to mine. 8 degrees is a lot. 

Etown for today per NWS

Today

Occasional flurries before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. 

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, pawatch said:

When I went to bed it was 10 degrees. When I got up this morning it was 17 degrees.

High of 30 yesterday, but it was pretty windy.

Voyager you need a factory job. Where your in the warm.

You're right, I do. But at 58 years old, and no skills other than landscaping and truck driving, I'm not sure anyone would hire me. 

[Itstrainingtime]

39 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Etown for today per NWS

Today

Occasional flurries before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. 

Yep, that's one degree lower than my forecast which makes total sense. 

[Itstrainingtime]

47 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Etown for today per NWS

Today

Occasional flurries before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. 

I really, really need to put my personal station online. I just haven't since I got my new one.

This one is right down the road from me...maybe .2 miles? I'm literally in the radius of this station:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPAMARIE28?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1aUZn05v6EL1SCu83D6YWAz4KB0xPA7zBHapk7ZxcoZfWMxfMgsX9YEUY_aem_AatgGdtB3HDmy_lQiEQW3p1bDKQzlUbvSccn8VpHsQ_8zcjQ2DxBPNU21ROdUrVrozfMvldDScho9lY6LgyGK0dL

It's already 31 in Maytown. 

[anotherman]

Here’s my home station.

Weather for York, PA - via Weather Underground. View on the web: York, PA https://www.wunderground.com/weather/39.9,-76.8, Download Weather Underground app https://www.wunderground.com/download

[canderson]

Looks like a split flow system wants to establish itself later next week and last most of the rest of February

If that happens, you’d have to think snow chances are fairy slim as temps would vey likely be above average. 

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP lowered my high for today from 34 to 32. 

At 10:31am it's 33. 

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, canderson said:

Looks like a split flow system wants to establish itself later next week and last most of the rest of February

If that happens, you’d have to think snow chances are fairy slim as temps would vey likely be above average. 

split flows can be very active and if you look at tellies/longer lead signals, I'm not sure where the fairly slim part is coming from. 

-pna and MJO signals are a little troubling, but you just saw what a stout -ao/nao and favorable MJO got us, and they look to head back down after next weeks spike into + territory, so I'd say signs are mixed right now. 

IF one sees next weeks warmth and is writing off winter....oy vey. WAYY too early to cancel anything. Once a signal looks to be overwhelming in a bad way, then get your caution flags out. 

 

 

[pasnownut]

28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP lowered my high for today from 34 to 32. 

At 10:31am it's 33. 

NWS says 31.  Guess your runnin hot 

 

 

[CarlislePaWx]

At 11:00 here in Carlisle, the temperature is 31.5 degrees after briefly touching 32.0 10 minutes ago.  My low temp occurred at midnight at 19.9 degrees and remained above 20 all night.  We all had busted lows overnight that occurred early.  My forecast low was 13 degrees after having been set at 10 degrees in the morning forecast.  That's a departure of +7 degrees.  The high temp here yesterday peaked at 33.3 degrees and broke the string of sub freezing days (just barely).  The forecast high for today is 33.  I think I will exceed that by several degrees.  So, just 2 days above freezing before dropping below again and remaining below for another week straight.

[canderson]

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

split flows can be very active and if you look at tellies/longer lead signals, I'm not sure where the fairly slim part is coming from. 

-pna and MJO signals are a little troubling, but you just saw what a stout -ao/nao and favorable MJO got us, and they look to head back down after next weeks spike into + territory, so I'd say signs are mixed right now. 

IF one sees next weeks warmth and is writing off winter....oy vey. WAYY too early to cancel anything. Once a signal looks to be overwhelming in a bad way, then get your caution flags out. 

 

 

Oh for sure - but don’t they lead to above norm temps? Maybe I’m incorrect though 

[TheClimateChanger]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP lowered my high for today from 34 to 32. 

At 10:31am it's 33. 

Interesting. Looking at everybody's temperature reports, it seems the airport temperatures are usually cooler. But one would think it would be the other way around with all the asphalt?

[anotherman]

Torching here in Mount Joy.... up to 32.4.  

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. Looking at everybody's temperature reports, it seems the airport temperatures are usually cooler. But one would think it would be the other way around with all the asphalt?

I wonder if everyone's thermometers are being impacted by reflected sunlight from the snow? The commercially available ones are generally shielded from above, so reflected light from below could raise them?

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Looks like a split flow system wants to establish itself later next week and last most of the rest of February

If that happens, you’d have to think snow chances are fairy slim as temps would vey likely be above average. 

not sure we have a true split flow regime setting up in long term.  More like a zonal (which at time can have NS/SS playing together (time dependent). But to answer your question, with a split flow, Its all about the boundary and what side you're on w/ respective vort pass. 

Longer lead zonal sorta fits tellies and upper air IMO.  Remember that there are other signals, MJO/SSW that have lag time effects on long lead models, so one has to keep that in mind when seeing a model output and high fivin...or kickin stones.  That said, next week may look notably different at this time.  Thats all I'm sayin.  We have another week of winter until we get our annual thaw, and in truth, we've had a great run despite the NS overwhelming the east, and pushing that precious boundary too far south and given NMA/Carolinas our precious snow.  A true snow hound knows you gotta be close to the rain for the best snows, and thats been way far south.  Bring a zonal pattern, and keep SS vorts from diggin too much (cutters) and just need to be close enough to the cold for some more chances at precip of the hopefully frozen variety. Of course if that happens, we'll likely be on warm side for some.  it's how things roll.  Just hope for the follow up waves to be further south. 

   

 

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Torching here in Mount Joy.... up to 32.4.  

Is it over.....

You callin it ??

 

hehe