Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

82/70: Key Largo

That sucks you have to deal with that summer heat and humidity. Come back home to reality where it's 14 here.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Let's see how the NAM handled snow in Arkansas so far
First image is snowfall output from NAM
2nd is observed at official stations
Take a big look at Little Rock

Out of all the models euro preformed best there
Almost all pushed mix to far north

Different system when it gets up here but at least we have some data

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Let’s hope that theme continues well east. 

[MAG5035]

1st and probably only call I’m gonna do with this. I could’ve just put a text box that said 10-18” on it and called it a day and would’ve had the model support to defend it. But I am hedging some on the NAM thermals being at least partly right and a bit more sleet intrusion. Not full NAM, but somewhere in between that and the general consensus. 

These are purely snow numbers, obviously the reduced zones in the southern tier are for sleet mixing, but if that were to occur than sleet accumulations would be fairly notable as well (perhaps an inch or so). The only reason I’m giving the NAM a bit more weight in what is mainly a snowier consensus is strictly its handling of mid-level features and the warm nose. If the snowier consensus wins out, then the whole subforum simply sees 12-18”. Impact wise, that really isn’t that much of a difference.. this is going to be disruptive. 

I also think top end will be tempered a bit, mainly for speed of the system. Mostly I think there will be a lot of 14s and 15s with some 16-18” reports sprinkled in. It doesn’t look like any kind of a comma head lingers in C-PA to drive widespread amounts toward the 20” mark. What could overcome that is a fast start to the heavier snows when the best snow ratios will be before the mid-levels of the column start to warm later in the event. Both of these points were mentioned in CTP’s disco from yesterday.. which was a good informative discussion. 

[Blizzard of 93]

From our long lost friend @mitchnick in the other thread…

No GGEM or RGEM, but the Geps updated and here's its snowfall. Not bad folks.

EDIT: Obviously includes sleet at 10:1

[canderson]

Today is the anniversary of the 2016 storm that dropped the most snow in a single event ever in Harrisburg.

32” was actually too much snow - had to have front-end loaders and dump trucks remove snow from our area to get out many days later. 

[Blizzard of 93]

From our old friend @MillvilleWx posted recently in the Mid Atlantic thread.

Final Forecast for the Storm

Some adjustments were made to reduce snow a touch and increase sleet which is a lower ratio component of the forecast. Still will be a formidable storm with some ice accretion added for good measure. A lot of the snowfall range should be take for a south to north crescendo with higher ranges more likely to the north of the lines presented. Will not be perfect by any stretch, but gives a good proxy. High impact event regardless as cold air behind the storm is very legit and we will struggle to break freezing for several days post storm. Be warm and safe everyone! 

[WmsptWx]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Today is the anniversary of the 2016 storm that dropped the most snow in a single event ever in Harrisburg.

32” was actually too much snow - had to have front-end loaders and dump trucks remove snow from our area to get out many days later. 

I actually tried to get to work in that one and get home. Didn't make it. Ended up in a hotel for two days. 

 

The February 4 and 9th storms brought so much snow between the two that I got two paid days off from work because Palmyra borough had no idea how to scoop up all the snow and where to put it. 

 

In retrospect, I have a few ideas where they could have placed it.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I actually tried to get to work in that one and get home. Didn't make it. Ended up in a hotel for two days. 

 

The February 4 and 9th storms brought so much snow between the two that I got two paid days off from work because Palmyra borough had no idea how to scoop up all the snow and where to put it. 

 

In retrospect, I have a few ideas where they could have placed it.

There was just enough time between those February storms for the city to get its act together. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

18z HRRR is hilarious bc it's a veritable snow/sleet warzone pretty much right over my house for the entire afternoon.  Wild.

[AccuChris]

Long range HRRR is definitely walking a razors edge with the mix line between Route 30 and 76


.

[mahantango#1]

Nws introduced snow possibly mixed with sleet tomorrow in my forecast for tomorrow evening from 6to10pm

[canderson]

Latest disco from CTP

Minor adjustments made to hourly precip type across the Lower
Susq Valley and Somerset County later Sunday morning into Sunday
evening as models have become more bullish on a deeper layer of
Wet Bulbs in the +2 to +4C range nosing into Somerset County and
areas SE of I-81 in the Lower Susq Valley (within the 5-9 KFT
AGL layer), leading to a mix or even a change to sleet there.
The wedge of slightly above zero C wet bulbs aloft, spreading in
from the south/southwest following the strong isent lift at the
nose of the 65 to 75 KT LLJ (will be 2-3 kft thicker across
Lancaster and York Counties, compared to the Laurel Highlands),
so snow totals across the far SE part of the CWA could be 10"
or slightly less - depending on the duration of the sleet.

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Long range HRRR is definitely walking a razors edge with the mix line between Route 30 and 76


.

Major dry slot 

[AccuChris]

HRRR kuchera snow


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

HRRR nearly identical in terms of evolution and totals to its 12z run.  I'd sign up for it right now.  Would be kind of fun to be right on the snow line for that long too.  Why not ha.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Major dry slot 

Yes, towards the end of the storm tomorrow evening…

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

Long range HRRR is definitely walking a razors edge with the mix line between Route 30 and 76


.

Looks a lot like the Euro…

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

HRRR kuchera snow


.

Also, looks a lot like the Euro.

[canderson]

HRRR is an all out ice storm for the 95 crew, it seems, and gets more than .10” of zr in Lancaster and York counties. 

[WmsptWx]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

Major dry slot 

Oh look...

[WmsptWx]

CTP holding firm.

 

 

[Superstorm]

NAM looks colder


.

[pasnownut]

HH Nam notably colder surface at 20 snow line still south of PA.  Nice start for sure.

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM will not flinch, same story with sleet overtaking everything by early afternoon.

[Superstorm]

Same result but smidge colder


.

[pasnownut]

3k also tad colder early on

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

NAM will not flinch, same story with sleet overtaking everything by early afternoon.

you sure?  at 26 i see a 40-50 mile souther adjustment to sn/Ip

[pasnownut]

IMO HH Nam is a small but notable improvement.  SE'r PA bretheren should approve. 

Might not make much difference, but every little bit helps down here. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

you sure?  at 26 i see a 40-50 mile souther adjustment to sn/Ip

Yep, ended up nearly identical, 12k that is, haven't looked at 3k yet.

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yep, ended up nearly identical, 12k that is, haven't looked at 3k yet.

 

Go look at 700's.  Thats my focus right now. 

A bit better for those on the line.  

And I've not started drinkin so snow goggles are not on.....yet